I just read an article from USA Today conservative columnist Nicole Russell, which I felt deserved the fact-check treatment. It's titled, "GDP soars and Trump's economy roars. Liberals still won't give him credit." Let's see what she has to say.
"Thanks to President Donald Trump's bold policies, it appears that the United States will avoid a recession this year - one that so many liberals were predicting only months ago."
Okay, I hate to be hard on her, but Ms. Russell's argument is off to a slow start. The fact of the matter is Donald Trump inherited a strong economy. The ONLY reason there was ever fear of a recession this year was BECAUSE of Donald Trump's policies. That's it. The man has changed his mind on tariffs more times than a mother of octuplets changes diapers. Here's how things went. There were no fears of a recession when Donald Trump entered office. He decided to go on a tariff spree, which led to fears of a recession. In the end, he pulled back on, or at least paused most his tariff threats, which at least temporarily eased fears of a recession. This is Trump's m.o.: He creates a problem which didn't exist; pretends to fix said non-problem; and then hails himself a hero for the proceedings.
https://www.npr.org/2025/04/30/nx-s1-5380204/trump-economy-gdp-tariffs-recession-consumers
"Will Democrats put politics aside and applaud as the American economy shows a strength and resilience that so many of them doubted? Probably not."
I hate to sound like a broken record, but once again, the ONLY reason there were fears of recession was BECAUSE of Donald Trump's tariff talk and policies. Essentially, there was a building, standing upright, no damage to be seen. For whatever reason, Donald Trump decided to set fire to this building. After a while, he called the firefighters, who were able to put out the blaze, but not before damage was done. Trump then said, "Hey, if it hadn't have been for me, the fire would still be going!" No, if it hadn't have been for him, there would have been no fire to begin with.
"The Bureau of Economic Analysis on July 30 released more good news about our nation's vibrant economy. Gross domestic product grew a healthy annual rate of 3% in the second quarter after recording a less than 1% decline in the first three months of this year. Fears of a recession should now dissipate like morning haze after the sunrise."
I love how she downplays the first quarter decline: "a less that 1% decline." What was the reason for the decline? Once again, Trump's tariff-talk and policies. He was THE reason for the first quarterly decline in 3 years. As for the second quarter number, she appears to be accurate, but let's place it in proper context. I have a wild hunch she wasn't nearly as enthusiastic about then President Biden's economy. Let's check to see how the GDP did during his term.
Q1 2021: +5.6%
Q2 2021: +6.4%
Q3 2021: +3.5%
Q4 2021: +7.4%
Q1 2022: -1.0%
Q2 2022: +0.3%
Q3 2022: +2.7%
Q4 2022: +3.4%
Q1 2023: +2.8%
Q2 2023: +2.4%
Q3 2023: +4.4%
Q4 2023: +3.2%
Q1 2024: +1.6%
Q2 2024: +3.0%
Q3 2024: +3.1%
Q4 2024: +2.4%
Average: +3.2%
So, there we have it. Joe Biden, who inherited the worst pandemic in a century, averaged a quarterly GDP increase of 3.2% (which, according to Ms. Russell herself, signifies a "healthy" economy). Donald Trump, on the other hand, who inherited a strong economy, has managed an average GDP of just +1.3% during the first two quarters of his second term.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gdp-report-first-quarter-2025-declined-commerce-department/
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth
"Nearly all markers of a strong economy are in top form. Unemployment is low, hovering at 4.1%. The past three months have seen steady job growth. Average hourly earnings for U.S. workers grew 3.7% over the 12 months ending in June."
While Ms. Russell is correct on the unemployment rate currently being 4.1%, what she fails to mention is that it was 4.0% when Trump entered office. In other words, albeit slight, the unemployment rate has increased under Donald Trump's watch to this point.
The past three months have seen job growths at 158k, 144k, and 147k, respectively (an average of 149.7k per). In Biden's final 3 months in office, there was an average job growth of 231.7k, 82k more per month than Trump's "steady job growth."
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/ces0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate
"Consumer spending is expected to rise, and there's been a modest uptick in consumer confidence. The Consumer Price Index, which measures inflation, increased 2.7% over the 12 months ending in June, far below the 40-year high recorded in President Joe Biden's term."
During Biden's four years in office, which, again, started with him being forced to deal with the worst pandemic in a century, consumer spending increased 35.1%, or an average of 8.8% per year. In half a year, consumer spending has increased just 1.1% under Trump.
I have to say, I'm disappointed with Ms. Russell's seeming tendency to neglect context. When Trump entered office, consumer confidence was at 71.70. Today it stands at 61.80, or a decrease of 13.8%.
When Donald Trump entered the Oval Office, the Consumer Price Index was at 2.8% and is now at 2.7%. It decreased from 9.1% to 2.8% under Biden, and don't give me this nonsense that it was somehow Bidenflation. Let's get real, it was COVIDflation. That's why the price increases were felt globally and not just isolated to the U.S. I know, according to MAGA, the U.S. is the globe - well, that and Russia, but still...
https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_consumer_sentiment_index
"Stock indexes continue to grow at a strong pace, recovering from the sell-off this spring driven by concerns over Trump's tariffs. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 have set multiple record highs in July, a boon to millions of Americans with retirement accounts and other investors."
In the 6 months Trump's been in office, the Dow Jones has gone from 44,025.81 to 44,664.75, or an increase of just 1.5%. That'd be like getting a 50% on a math test; being permitted to take a re-test; and scoring a 51.5%. Yes, you improved, but that doesn't make it good.
"On the tariff front, Trump's new trade deal with the European Union should be a catalyst for further economic growth, particularly in the energy and construction sectors."
Not. It's estimated the EU deal will cost an average of $2,400 per household.
"If this is what a recession looks like, let's keep it coming."
Please no...
"Despite such healthy economic markers, I doubt I'll see many kudos offered to the Trump administration for powering past a recession, which the left predicted in doomsday terms."
That's because they don't deserve any kudos for starting a fire; failing to put it out for a while; and then announcing to the world they deserve medals for putting out a fire which would have never existed had it not been for them starting it (yes, Billy Joel, MAGA started the fire).
"Noble Prize-winning columnist Paul Krugman wrote in May that Trump and 'MAGAnomics' were 'destroying the economy and waging war on the middle class and the poor.' The headline thundered that Trump was 'making America backward again.'"
Psst, just because the economy hasn't been destroyed in 6 months doesn't mean Trump won't ultimately destroy the economy. These things tend to take time. Have you read through the "big beautiful bill"? That is a direct assault on the middle- and lower-classes. As far as moving the country backwards, that isn't even up for debate. Tariffs; ICE crimes; defunding and silencing media; hobbling the government with job cuts; nearly starting World War 3; the constant stream of lies and propaganda; cozying up to Russia; an attempt to undermine the Constitution into obsolescence; ignoring the rule of law; etc. One major reason why Trump and his cronies love to cozy up to Russia is because they want to be Russia, but I digress. Trickle-down economics has been proven time and again to not work, except for those at the very top of the economic ladder. Said philosophy will continue to fail, under the guise of "the big beautiful bill." The economy may not have been shattered yet, but Trump is well on his way to doing as much when all is said and done.
"Interestingly, Krugman claimed that the U.S. economy was in good overall shape when Biden left office in January. He charged Trump with wrecking the economy in a mere three months. Now, that the data clearly shows otherwise, will Krugman admit his errors? I doubt it."
In Krugman's defense, Trump was on the verge of wrecking the economy in three months. Little did we know Trump would go TACO on every day ending in '-y,' to lessen the blow. Also, cut it out with the Trump exaggerations. As I've outlined above, since Trump took office:
- Job growth has slowed
- Unemployment has slightly increased
- The Dow Jones has been rather stagnant
- The hourly wage has increased very slightly
- The GDP has weakened overall
- Consumer spending has slowed rather dramatically
- Consumer confidence has decreased
In other words, the economy was much stronger under Biden and/or it was moving in a much more positive direction than it is today. Hold onto your sorry, Mr. Krugman, no apology is needed at this time - not from you, anyway. Mr. Trump, on the other hand...
"Krugman, to be fair, wasn't the only so-called expert spouting off about our supposedly crumbling economy. CNN published an analysis in April with a headline that claimed 'Trump took the US economy to the brink of crisis in just 100 days.'"
Once again, this is true. The thing with Trump is his mind (what little there is left) changes like (or perhaps with) the wind. On Monday, he says he'll increase tariffs by 100%. On Tuesday, he'll raise that to 200%. On Wednesday, he'll call the whole thing off, only to bring the tariff back on the table Thursday, but at 50%. So, it's actually quite rational to accurately predict Trump will destroy the economy on a Monday, and be forced to do a 180 come Wednesday or Thursday of the same week. Donald Trump is a madman. It's not our fault if we fail to predict a madman's next move.
"The same month, the Center for American Progress bemoaned that 'President Donald Trump's decision to unilaterally launch a global trade war could be one of the worst economic statecraft blunders in American history.'"
That's before he went TACO. Every time you criticize a Trump critic for criticizing his tariff-talk, end the sentence with, "before he went TACO." You're welcome.
"I read these articles in the mainstream news and wonder if we share the same universe. Do progressives not see the same healthy economic markers that millions of other Americans and I see?"
Hold on, my projection-prediction light is flashing...
"The answer, of course, is that they do see - but they are too blinded by partisanship to admit it."
There it is! My projection-predictor light hasn't failed me yet!
"I don't have a problem with liberals criticizing Trump. Sometimes he deserves it. But when it comes to obvious wins like a blossoming economy, the constant derision is tiresome and pedestrian. A robust economy under any president is good news for Americans, regardless of their party affiliation. Right?"
You know what I have a problem with? The MAGA cult. Perhaps this is why he won the election, though. The guy can say a strong economy sucks; threaten to destroy the economy; weaken, but not destroy the economy; and call that a win.
"I didn't care for Biden's leftist policies. But I didn't cheer when the economy struggled. It was bad news not just for Biden but, far more important, also for our nation and its citizens."
Remember that bit about not living in the same reality as progressives? Yeah, let's go back to that. This, THIS is the problem. You just said the Trump economy is blossoming. You just said the Biden economy struggled. I have provided a great deal of data showcasing the Biden economy was far stronger than the Trump economy. THAT'S the reality. I provide data; you just provide talking points and "feels." That, my fiend, is a cult.
"More than a year after Biden entered the White House, annual inflation spiked to 9% in June 2022, the highest rate in four decades. Americans were hit with sudden increases in food, housing and transportation costs."
I don't know how many times this has to be repeated, but Joe Biden was NOT the reason inflation spiked across the world. Here's a question no MAGA has been able to intelligently answer: What, specifically, did Biden do to increase inflation, like we hadn't seen in decades, across the globe? The answer is he didn't. As a matter of fact, if we really want to find someone to blame, Donald Trump has a great deal more weight on his shoulders, on the matter, than Joe Biden. Who was president when COVID first struck the U.S.? Donald Trump. Who ignored the worst pandemic in a century for a few months after it hit our country? Donald Trump. Who downplayed the need for safety precautions? Donald Trump. Who was leader of the United States when dozens of governors (many of them Republicans) felt forced into issuing statewide lockdowns, to help stop the spread of the virus? Donald Trump. Who was president when tens of millions of people lost their jobs as a result of his inaction and their governors' reluctant lockdowns? Donald Trump. Why did prices increase so substantially? Because, when the lockdowns were lifted, tens of millions were still without a job, and supply could not come close to matching demand. In other words, if Donald Trump had actually exhibited any semblance of humanity, and looked out for people's well-being, instead of just his political prospects, perhaps we wouldn't have been hit as hard with inflation.
"Compounding the pain, the Federal Reserve acted to cool inflation by raising interest rates, which pushed up consumers' payments for auto, housing and credit card loans."
This was done to temporarily decrease spending and allow for supply to catch up to demand, which would then reduce the increase of inflation. As can be seen from the following graphs and article, said strategy, while not perfect, was rather successful. You're not going to read the article, are you? At least look at the graphs. They're quite pretty.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
"Democrats tried to blame decisions made in Trump's first term, including federal spending used to fight consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. But Biden spent more even as the pandemic began to wane."
The national debt was increased by 37.7% under Trump and 31.6% under Biden. The budget deficit increased 367.2% under Trump and decreased 33.9% under Biden (from their first to final years). Once again, Democrats are more fiscally-responsible than Republicans. Fiscal liberals!
https://www.investopedia.com/us-national-debt-by-year-7499291
https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-deficit/
"In 2024, more than half of American voters said the economy was the issue that mattered to them the most. It's why Trump won more than 77 million votes and returned to the White House."
Yes, for American voters have terrible memories, considering the fact Trump was the first president since Herbert Hoover, in 1932, to leave office with fewer jobs than were present when he entered it.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/fact-check-during-trumps-presidency-181500624.html
"Now, he is delivering on his promises to rebuild our nation's economy. But not everyone is happy about it."
Oh, really?
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/29/trump-100-days-promises-list-00309434
"It's too bad liberals can't separate economic success from Trump's party affiliation. I can't help but wonder if they wanted a recession so they could blame Trump even more."
...and that, class, is what we call projection. Class dismissed.
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