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Bad June for Democrats Overstated

I just read an article about how June has already been an awful month for the Democratic Party and well, it basically laid claim that Armageddon was soon around the corner for the Democrats. Why? Three things: 1) The May jobs' report, 2) The Wisconsin results and 3) May fundraising.

Has it been a good start for the Democrats this month? No. But are people overreacting? Yes. The May jobs' report was a big disappointment, without question, but let's put things into perspective. If a similar jobs report had come out at the end of Bush's tenure or the start of Obama's (or even middle of it), it would have received glowing reviews. Due to it (and the previous month's report), it appears as if job growth has definitely slowed, however, it was still a net positive, which makes it, what, 12 straight months with such results? I'm too lazy to fact-check right at this moment, but I think I'm close to accurate with that number. Again, it was very disappointing, however, I don't think it's the end of the world. We're still coming out of a recession and we'll have to wait and see what happens with the June, July and August job reports. Does this trend continue and we appear to be at a complete halt with the job growth in this country or does the growth begin to increase again? Was this an aberration or the start of a trend? That's yet to be determined and it'd be silly for most laypeople columnists to speculate on the matter.

With regard to Wisconsin, this story has been blown even further out of proportion than the jobs' report. Scott Walker won the recall. However, Democrats won back control of the state senate and, depending on the poll you believe, among Wisconsin voters on Tuesday, Obama held either a 7- or 11-point advantage over Romney, which is consistent with polling there (on average, he's led by about 8 points in the state). Almost every poll indicated Walker would win, about half claimed he'd win comfortable on Tuesday. It was not a shock that he did so. When asked, it seems as if a majority of the people in the state didn't agree with the recall vote - they didn't feel it was the right thing to do and voted in such a manner. Again, it's not like the Republican base was a great deal more fired up than the Democratic one. Obama had a lead between 7 and 11 points over Romney among the voters and the Democrats won back control of the state senate. Unfortunately, it seems that only Walker's victory is making headlines.

Finally, it was reported yesterday that the Romney Campaign netted more cash in fundraising for the month of May than Team Obama. This was the first time Obama had been out-raised in 2007 by Hillary Clinton during the Democratic Primary. Again, no, it's not great news for the Democratic Party, but once again, it was the first time it has happened in five years. Let's get a grip here. Like I said with the jobs' report, will this be the start of a trend or was it simply an aberration? That can't be determined at this point.

So, Democrats, take a deep breath. While it has not been a great start for the party this month, it's not the end of the world. There are still 5 months until the election and as of this point, Obama is up between 2 and 3 points nationally and ahead in some very key swing states/near swing states (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, etc.) and is being given a 60% chance of winning in November. Even with the disappointing jobs' report, the Wisconsin results and the fundraising totals, Obama is currently ahead. So once again, take a deep breath... There, that's better...

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