While there are times when headlines provide an accurate lead-in to a story, there are also times when this is far from the case. A prime example of the latter is with regard to the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. The main focus on the poll was Donald Trump's approval rating. One headline even read, "Trump's Approval Soars in Latest Poll," while another read, "Trump's Approval At Record High."
First thing's first, Trump's approval increased by 1% in the poll, from 44% in June to 45% in July. How this quantifies as "soaring" is beyond me. It's not like you'll ever hear an NBA announcer say, "...and the Boston Celtics soared over the Chicago Bulls with a 101-100 victory, on a buzzer-beater from Gordon Heyward." Secondly, while it's true Trump's approval rating increased by 1 point in the poll, that is far from the biggest finding in the poll and should have been replaced with another result as the big story.
In presidential election years, we generally see around 60% of the electorate casting their votes. That number is roughly cut in half for midterm elections. The people most likely to vote are those who either strongly support or strongly oppose the president/party in power. With the midterms being just a little over 3 months away, I think it's nearing time we start looking at polls which predict what we can expect come November.
According to this NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, the following results were found:
All Registered Voters
Strongly Approve: 29%
Strongly Disapprove: 44%
Net: -15%
Republicans
Strongly Approve: 64%
Democrats
Strongly Disapprove: 80%
Independents
Strongly Approve: 16%
Strongly Disapprove: 46%
Net: -30%
Also, among Independents, Trump's approval decreased 7 points in the past month (down to 36%) and their preference for who controls Congress went from Democrats by 7 (39% to 32%) to Democrats by 22 (48% to 26%).
In other words, there are more passionate voters who oppose Trump than those who support him. Democrats are more enthused to vote than Republicans. Not only that, while Donald Trump's numbers are getting stronger with Republicans, they're significantly weakening among Independents. Add all of these components together, and if the elections were held tomorrow, you could expect a big blue wave. The headlines may suggest things are improving for Donald Trump and his party, but if you delve deeper, that's anything but the case.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/nbc-wsj-poll-public-gives-trump-thumbs-down-russia-thumbs-n893266
First thing's first, Trump's approval increased by 1% in the poll, from 44% in June to 45% in July. How this quantifies as "soaring" is beyond me. It's not like you'll ever hear an NBA announcer say, "...and the Boston Celtics soared over the Chicago Bulls with a 101-100 victory, on a buzzer-beater from Gordon Heyward." Secondly, while it's true Trump's approval rating increased by 1 point in the poll, that is far from the biggest finding in the poll and should have been replaced with another result as the big story.
In presidential election years, we generally see around 60% of the electorate casting their votes. That number is roughly cut in half for midterm elections. The people most likely to vote are those who either strongly support or strongly oppose the president/party in power. With the midterms being just a little over 3 months away, I think it's nearing time we start looking at polls which predict what we can expect come November.
According to this NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, the following results were found:
All Registered Voters
Strongly Approve: 29%
Strongly Disapprove: 44%
Net: -15%
Republicans
Strongly Approve: 64%
Democrats
Strongly Disapprove: 80%
Independents
Strongly Approve: 16%
Strongly Disapprove: 46%
Net: -30%
Also, among Independents, Trump's approval decreased 7 points in the past month (down to 36%) and their preference for who controls Congress went from Democrats by 7 (39% to 32%) to Democrats by 22 (48% to 26%).
In other words, there are more passionate voters who oppose Trump than those who support him. Democrats are more enthused to vote than Republicans. Not only that, while Donald Trump's numbers are getting stronger with Republicans, they're significantly weakening among Independents. Add all of these components together, and if the elections were held tomorrow, you could expect a big blue wave. The headlines may suggest things are improving for Donald Trump and his party, but if you delve deeper, that's anything but the case.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/nbc-wsj-poll-public-gives-trump-thumbs-down-russia-thumbs-n893266
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