So, I heard the GOP held a couple of debates last night. Okay, I admit I watched them. It was the most I had watched Fox News in, well, forever - and yes, I mean that literally, for as long as I've been living anyway. Here's what I learned from the two debates.
In the first debate, the seven second-tier candidates discussed matters for an hour, and while most people believe Carly Fiorina was the standout from the debate, my feeling of it was, "None of them have a serious chance of becoming the party's nominee." The questions felt lazy, as did many of the responses, and it had the feel of a bunch of 5-6 teams (in college football) attempting to win #6 just to qualify for a bowl game. Fiorina may have outshined the other six candidates, but in all reality, the only thing it did for her was to perhaps make the eventual nominee think about her as his running mate. Rick Perry showcased he's backtracked on his being able to count to two, as when asked to describe Hillary Clinton in two words, he uttered more than that. He also let the world know his favorite president of all-time was some guy by the name of Ronald Raven. Rumor has it Freddy Roosevelt and Babe Lincoln are his other two favorites. Polling wise, it's my guess that the debate didn't help nor hurt anyone a great deal, except for Fiorina, whom may see her numbers jump slightly, but probably not enough to be considered a major player for the 2016 Republican nomination.
While there were some interesting moments to be had in the second debate among the ten first-tier candidates, more times than not it felt like a giant circus. Fox News, being as conservatively-slanted as they are, led by Roger Ailes and Rupert Murdoch, know full well that while Donald Trump may be leading the Republican field at this time, nationally he is largely disliked and would likely get trounced in the general election if he happened to be the party's nominee. Moderators Chris Wallace and Megyn Kelly made it blatantly obvious they want to do everything they can to dethrone Trump from the top spot in the polls so the party has a better chance come next November. Chris Christie and Rand Paul's near wrestling match didn't help either's image any and I expect to see their numbers drop in the coming polls as a result. Jeb Bush didn't do himself any favors with his performance, especially on the accuracy front. However, given his name and current standing in the polls, I don't think he'll slip a great deal. Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, and Scott Walker didn't appear to hurt nor help themselves any. The four names I'm most curious to see in the coming polls are: Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, John Kasich, and yes, Donald Trump. Rubio was off with some of his numbers and claims, yet he did a fairly good job of communicating his message. Many Democrats, myself included, are most afraid of him being the party's nominee. The man is young, attractive, Latino, and from Florida. That combination would frighten any Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton included. For the time being, however, he's not in the top 3 or 4 in the polls, so we don't have to sweat a great deal just yet. Ben Carson is an interesting candidate. His sometimes slow and contemplative style of speaking isn't ideal for debates, which often requires candidates to speak more quickly than is typical before the buzzer sounds indicating they've run out of time. However, as the recency effect would state, people often times remember what they heard last the most, and Carson's final comments were arguably the best of the night. I still have a difficult time seeing him become the party's nominee, but I wouldn't be surprised to see his numbers jump a bit in the polls, and possibly become the eventual nominee's running mate. John Kasich appeared to be the most moderate, reasonable, and open candidate of the lot last night. He spoke out in favor of Medicare, expanding Medicaid, of gay marriage, and he didn't bite the bullet when he was asked about Donald Trump, which was smart in my opinion. The man appeared composed, willing to reach across the aisle and compromise, and like he just wanted to get things done and move this country forward if he happened to be elected. The crowd gave him a rousing cheer when he spoke in favor of gay marriage, but the debate was held in his home state, Cleveland, Ohio specifically, so I'm curious to see how his performance was viewed outside of that area. One thing that has hurt Republican candidates in the past is the perception of being too "moderate." However, in the past couple of elections, the GOP eventually nominated John McCain and Mitt Romney, largely viewed as moderate Republicans, because they felt these candidates had the best chance of winning back the White House. So, will Kasich's moderate image hurt him with the base, help him, or have a fairly neutral effect? We'll have to wait and see. Lastly, Donald Trump was front and center in more ways than one last night. To be honest, I thought the guy came across as a bully and a jerk, but this is how I've always felt and he was in first place leading up to the debate last night. So, just how will his performance effect his standing in the polls? He was just being himself and that's what vaulted him to the top of the polls in the first place. Overall, it's my feeling his numbers will remain about the same, but some other candidates may gain on him. I also think, since he's disliked by so many, once some Republican candidates start dropping out of the race, supporters of theirs will be much more prone to joining camps not named Trump. It'll be around that time when people really start wondering if he's in it for the long haul and if he's seriously contemplating running as an Independent in the 2016 election.
Overall, it was a fairly predictable night in my opinion. Ten candidates were far too many for a two-hour debate. There were times throughout the evening when certain candidates wouldn't have spoken for what felt like a half-hour. Ben Carson even jokingly said at one time, "I was wondering if you were going to let me speak again." Some candidates definitely outperformed others, but at least in the second debate, I didn't see any huge winners or losers. Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, and John Kasich I think will see the biggest bounces in the polls. Rand Paul, Chris Christie, and possibly Jeb Bush will see the biggest declines. The rest will stay fairly level with their previous numbers. When all is said and done, though, only two things are for certain: 1) I'll be curious to see the poll numbers in the coming week and 2) Rick Perry definitely needs a new pair of "smart" glasses.
In the first debate, the seven second-tier candidates discussed matters for an hour, and while most people believe Carly Fiorina was the standout from the debate, my feeling of it was, "None of them have a serious chance of becoming the party's nominee." The questions felt lazy, as did many of the responses, and it had the feel of a bunch of 5-6 teams (in college football) attempting to win #6 just to qualify for a bowl game. Fiorina may have outshined the other six candidates, but in all reality, the only thing it did for her was to perhaps make the eventual nominee think about her as his running mate. Rick Perry showcased he's backtracked on his being able to count to two, as when asked to describe Hillary Clinton in two words, he uttered more than that. He also let the world know his favorite president of all-time was some guy by the name of Ronald Raven. Rumor has it Freddy Roosevelt and Babe Lincoln are his other two favorites. Polling wise, it's my guess that the debate didn't help nor hurt anyone a great deal, except for Fiorina, whom may see her numbers jump slightly, but probably not enough to be considered a major player for the 2016 Republican nomination.
While there were some interesting moments to be had in the second debate among the ten first-tier candidates, more times than not it felt like a giant circus. Fox News, being as conservatively-slanted as they are, led by Roger Ailes and Rupert Murdoch, know full well that while Donald Trump may be leading the Republican field at this time, nationally he is largely disliked and would likely get trounced in the general election if he happened to be the party's nominee. Moderators Chris Wallace and Megyn Kelly made it blatantly obvious they want to do everything they can to dethrone Trump from the top spot in the polls so the party has a better chance come next November. Chris Christie and Rand Paul's near wrestling match didn't help either's image any and I expect to see their numbers drop in the coming polls as a result. Jeb Bush didn't do himself any favors with his performance, especially on the accuracy front. However, given his name and current standing in the polls, I don't think he'll slip a great deal. Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, and Scott Walker didn't appear to hurt nor help themselves any. The four names I'm most curious to see in the coming polls are: Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, John Kasich, and yes, Donald Trump. Rubio was off with some of his numbers and claims, yet he did a fairly good job of communicating his message. Many Democrats, myself included, are most afraid of him being the party's nominee. The man is young, attractive, Latino, and from Florida. That combination would frighten any Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton included. For the time being, however, he's not in the top 3 or 4 in the polls, so we don't have to sweat a great deal just yet. Ben Carson is an interesting candidate. His sometimes slow and contemplative style of speaking isn't ideal for debates, which often requires candidates to speak more quickly than is typical before the buzzer sounds indicating they've run out of time. However, as the recency effect would state, people often times remember what they heard last the most, and Carson's final comments were arguably the best of the night. I still have a difficult time seeing him become the party's nominee, but I wouldn't be surprised to see his numbers jump a bit in the polls, and possibly become the eventual nominee's running mate. John Kasich appeared to be the most moderate, reasonable, and open candidate of the lot last night. He spoke out in favor of Medicare, expanding Medicaid, of gay marriage, and he didn't bite the bullet when he was asked about Donald Trump, which was smart in my opinion. The man appeared composed, willing to reach across the aisle and compromise, and like he just wanted to get things done and move this country forward if he happened to be elected. The crowd gave him a rousing cheer when he spoke in favor of gay marriage, but the debate was held in his home state, Cleveland, Ohio specifically, so I'm curious to see how his performance was viewed outside of that area. One thing that has hurt Republican candidates in the past is the perception of being too "moderate." However, in the past couple of elections, the GOP eventually nominated John McCain and Mitt Romney, largely viewed as moderate Republicans, because they felt these candidates had the best chance of winning back the White House. So, will Kasich's moderate image hurt him with the base, help him, or have a fairly neutral effect? We'll have to wait and see. Lastly, Donald Trump was front and center in more ways than one last night. To be honest, I thought the guy came across as a bully and a jerk, but this is how I've always felt and he was in first place leading up to the debate last night. So, just how will his performance effect his standing in the polls? He was just being himself and that's what vaulted him to the top of the polls in the first place. Overall, it's my feeling his numbers will remain about the same, but some other candidates may gain on him. I also think, since he's disliked by so many, once some Republican candidates start dropping out of the race, supporters of theirs will be much more prone to joining camps not named Trump. It'll be around that time when people really start wondering if he's in it for the long haul and if he's seriously contemplating running as an Independent in the 2016 election.
Overall, it was a fairly predictable night in my opinion. Ten candidates were far too many for a two-hour debate. There were times throughout the evening when certain candidates wouldn't have spoken for what felt like a half-hour. Ben Carson even jokingly said at one time, "I was wondering if you were going to let me speak again." Some candidates definitely outperformed others, but at least in the second debate, I didn't see any huge winners or losers. Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, and John Kasich I think will see the biggest bounces in the polls. Rand Paul, Chris Christie, and possibly Jeb Bush will see the biggest declines. The rest will stay fairly level with their previous numbers. When all is said and done, though, only two things are for certain: 1) I'll be curious to see the poll numbers in the coming week and 2) Rick Perry definitely needs a new pair of "smart" glasses.
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