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I give up trying to predict the 2012 Republican nominee

Let's go over the history of the Republican Primary:

1) Michelle Bachmann is seen as an early favorite.
2) Rick Perry then leads in the polls
3) Herman Cain comes out of nowhere to lead the Republican field
4) Newt Gingrich rises to the top
5) Rick Santorum feels a sudden surge
6) Mitt Romney appears to finally have a firm grasp of first place after being #2 for so long

Then...

1) Mitt Romney wins Iowa, but it's later reversed and Rick Santorum wins the state
2) Mitt Romney dominates in New Hampshire
3) Newt Gingrich wins convincingly in South Carolina
4) Mitt Romney wins Florida rather easily
5) Mitt Romney wins Nevada quite easily
6) Rick Santorum comes out of nowhere to win Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri

So, to their credit, Rick Santorum has won four states (Iowa, Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri), Mitt Romney has won two states (New Hampshire and Florida) and Newt Gingrich has won one state (South Carolina).

Romney was the favorite until South Carolina, where Newt felt the momentum and became the favorite. This momentum changed course and swung back into Romney's direction after Florida and Nevada. Romney's momentum was abruptly halted after Santorum swept the three states of Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri a couple days ago.

So now what? I'd say that Gingrich is all but toast, but then again, he's been placed in this position before and found a way to make things interesting. Heck, after the South Carolina primary, I thought Santorum was all but finished and now he appears to be the hot anti-Romney candidate. All the while Romney has been pretty steady as far as poll numbers are concerned, but he just can't seem to put the finishing touches on the nomination. He's had trouble in the Midwest and Southeast (Florida is a battleground state), typical Republican strongholds. Santorum has faired the best in the Midwest, while Gingrich took South Carolina. Romney has succeeded in the battleground states of Nevada, New Hampshire and Florida. As I've said all along, Romney is the strongest general election candidate for the GOP, but conservatives are very reluctant on him being their nominee. What has to happen for either Santorum or Gingrich is for one of the two to drop out of the race. The other will pick up the majority of his voters and perhaps make it difficult for Romney to win the nomination. So long as the two are in the race, however, they will likely continue to split votes and ultimately make it difficult for either to triumph over Romney.
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