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NFL Overreactions

"Eli Manning doesn't know what he's doing anymore. He's a disaster. The Giants need to be done with him."

I've never been one to overpraise Eli Manning. Even though he's led two Giants teams to Super Bowl victories, Eli is just four games over .500 as a starter, as he currently holds a 112-108 record. Not only that, but he's one of the most intercepted quarterbacks in NFL history. He currently ranks 15th in that category with 232 picks. Brett Favre leads the way with 336. If Manning continues at his current pace and plays for as long as Favre did, he'll wind up at #2 on the list with 303 interceptions, 26 ahead of 3rd place George Blanda. So let's get one thing straight, I'm not some Eli Manning homer. Having said that, though, these ESPN analysts are majorly overreacting to his play. Look, the New York Giants are not a good football team. The team is ranked 24th or worse in rush defense, scoring defense, quarterback sack percentage, and average times being sacked per game. In other words, the defense is nothing special and neither is the group of guys protecting the quarterback, so we can't place all of the blame on Eli Manning, no matter how much we may want to do so. Also, believe it or not, but Manning's current 90.9 quarterback rating is actually the 5th best of his 15-year career. His highest such rating was in 2015 when he carried a 93.6 rating. He's also completing a greater percentage of his passes this year than in any year prior, and by quite a substantial margin. Through 6 games, Manning is completing 68.1% of his passes. His previous high in the category was 63.0%. While Manning's touchdown pass percentage is the lowest of his career at 2.6 % (previous low was 3.0%), he's also posting the lowest interception percentage of his career at 1.7% (previous low was 2.1%). His 7.2 yards per pass attempt is tied for the 6th best of his career. Unfortunately for him, he's on pace to get sacked 53 times, which would eclipse his previous high by 14 and mark him as the 25th most sacked quarterback of all time in a single season. Is he as good as he once was? I doubt it. Is Eli Manning on the downside of his career? Probably. But is he the main reason behind the New York Giants struggles this season? Not hardly.


"Baker Mayfield is the franchise quarterback the Cleveland Browns have long been searching for."

The media is notorious for overhyping rookie quarterbacks. Instead of waiting for a couple of full seasons to truly illustrate the players' talents, progressions, and ultimate potential moving forward, these analysts like to make projections based on a single performance: "Oh my God! Andrew Luck is going to be the next great quarterback! Jared Goff is a sure-fire bust! Russell Wilson and Drew Brees are too small! Colin Kaepernick is on pace to being one of the best ever!" Now we're hearing all about Cleveland Browns #1 draft pick Baker Mayfield, how he's the franchise quarterback the team has been waiting two decades for, how he's a can't-miss prospect, and some have even compared him to the likes of Brett Favre and Drew Brees. Let's slow things down a bit... Mayfield has shown some grittiness and potential in his three starts, but it'd be ridiculous to compare him to Favre, Brees, or any current or future Hall-of-Famer at this current juncture. As a matter of fact, believe it or not, Johnny Manziel had better NFL numbers than Mayfield does at this point. Don't believe me? Here's the comparison:

Mayfield: 85 for 153 passing (55.6%), for 1,076 yards (7.0 per attempt), 4 touchdowns, 5 interceptions (0.8 ratio), and a rating of 72.8. He's also rushed 10 times for 39 yards (3.9 per carry).

Manziel: 146 for 258 passing (57.0%), for 1,675 yards (6.5 per attempt), 7 touchdowns, 7 interceptions (1.0 ratio), and a rating of 74.4. He also rushed the ball 46 times for 259 yards (5.6 per carry), and a touchdown.

So not only was Manziel more effective at running the ball, he was just as good, if not better than Mayfield throwing the football, at least to this point. Do I think Mayfield's-inferior-to-Manziel-numbers will continue? Probably not. But do I think it's way too early to hail the Browns rookie as the next great thing? Most definitely.


"The only two teams who can compete for a Super Bowl are the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs."

The two teams just battled one another in a 43-40 game. Sure, it was entertaining, but neither can expect to make, let alone win the Super Bowl unless their defenses improve. That's especially the case for Kansas City, who has the worst statistical defense in football right now and is led by a first-time starting quarterback. If Pittsburgh's defense continues to improve, they'll be a team with which to contend. On the flip-side, if Blake Bortles stops turning the ball over and the Jaguars remember what made them solid last season, they won't be an easy out come playoff time. Houston and Tennessee have potential to make playoff runs, but will need to make a great deal of progress as the season moves forward. Lastly, my two biggest sleepers are the Los Angeles Chargers and Baltimore Ravens. LA's offense is already clicking. Their two losses were to the final two teams to lose in the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams (yet to lose in the Rams' case). When their defense gets fully healthy, they may wind up being one of the best, most complete teams in the AFC. As for the Ravens, Baltimore has the best defense in football right now. When you have a dominant defense, you're going to be in every game and be an extremely difficult out in the postseason. Not only that, but while Joe Flacco has been inconsistent to start the season, he's surrounded by more weapons than he's had since the team's last Super Bowl run. If he can be efficient behind center, this could be the best all-around team in the league.


"The Pittsburgh Steelers need Le'Veon Bell to make the playoffs and compete for an AFC championship."

Make no mistake about it, Le'Veon Bell is an all-pro running back, arguably one of the best in the league. But having him back is not the key to the Pittsburgh Steelers getting back to another Super Bowl. For his career, Bell has averaged 86.1 yards rushing per game (4.3 per carry), 7 rushing touchdowns, 42.9 yards receiving per game (8.5 per reception), and 1 receiving touchdown. Put all that together and Bell has averaged 129 total yards per game (5.2 per touch), and 8 touchdowns per season. This season, James Conner has put up these numbers: 75.8 rushing yards per game (4.4 per carry), 7 rushing touchdowns (puts him on pace for 19 such touchdowns), 42.8 yards receiving per game (9.9 per reception), and no receiving touchdowns to this point. Put all that together and Connor has averaged 118.6 total yards per game (5.5 per touch), and is on pace for 19 touchdowns this season. Conner's numbers are almost identical to Bell's, perhaps even slightly better. The Steelers haven't lost a step offensively in Bell's absence. The team's big question mark is on defense. In their first three games, they allowed an average of 30 points per game. In their last three, they've trimmed that to 21 points per game. That will ultimately be the key to their success. The offense is going to continue putting up numbers, regardless of who's at tailback. It's the defense which will dictate how far they make it into the postseason. If they regress to where they started this year, there's absolutely zero chance they'll make it to the Super Bowl. Hell, if that were the case, they might not even make the playoffs. However, if they continue to hold opponents to 21 points per game or less, they'll be right in the thick of things come the postseason.


"The Dallas Cowboys are back."

After putting up 40 on the vaunted Jacksonville Jaguars defense, some are claiming that the Dallas Cowboys are back! Psst, they're just 3-3. Even after exploding for 40 on Sunday, the Cowboys' best offensive statistic is rushing offense, where they rank slightly lower than middle-of-the-pack at 17. Outside of that, they rank 25th in scoring offense, 29th in passing offense, and 29th in total offense, respectively. The three teams Dallas has beaten thus far have a combined record of 6-11. Their three losses have come to teams with a combined record of 9-8. Lucky for them, their opponents the rest of the way have a combined record of 25-31. Until their offense can consistently play up to the level of their defense, though, this looks like just another 8-8 Dallas Cowboys team. Until the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles are dethroned, they'll be the team to beat in the NFC East. ...and it'll be less likely for Elvis Presley to win the lottery tomorrow than there will be of a second team from this division making the playoffs.

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