Here we go again. The Tim Tebow-led Denver Broncos came back to defeat the New York Jets 17-13 on Thursday night and the majority of the jabber is concerning Tebow's magical final drive which vaulted his Broncos to a victory. While that final drive was great, let's not look past the rest of the team and the game.
First off, before that final drive. all Tebow did was lead the Broncos to one field goal. The only other touchdown they scored was via an Andre Goodman 26-yard interception return. Points wise, the Broncos have as much to thank New York Jets' quarterback Mark Sanchez for as they do their own quarterback, one Tim Tebow.
In all seriousness, the Broncos had no business being in this game. The Jets turned the ball over twice, one which led to a touchdown as mentioned above. Denver accumulated just 11 first downs in the game, compared to 22 for the Jets. They accounted for a mere 229 yards of total offense, almost 100 less than New York (318). Tebow was only 9 for 20 passing the ball for 104 yards and a quarterback rating of 61.2. He also ran the ball 8 times for 68 yards (8.5 p/) and a score.
On the season now, Tebow has completed a paltry 44.8% of his passes (56-125) for 709 yards (just 5.67 p/att), 7 touchdowns and 1 pick for a quarterback rating of 78.4. There hasn't been a start this year where Tebow has completed 50% of his passes. His best such effort was against the Oakland Raiders, where he completed 10 of 21 pass attempts (47.6%). In last night's game, the quarterback got off to a solid start in thta category, completing 5 of his first 7 passes, but as the final stats indicate, he finished the game completing just 4 of 13 passes. I'll say it again, to this point in his career, Tim Tebow is not a good NFL quarterback. So, why do his Broncos keep winning?
I can think of three reasons why the Broncos have gone 4-1 with Tim Tebow as the starter: 1) Time of possession, 2) Solid defense and 3) Lack of turnovers.
In these five games, the Broncos have scored a combined 100 points, an average of 20.0 per game. That's including the 38-point outburst against the Oakland Raiders three weeks ago and a chunk of those points were scored due to the Broncos' special teams and defense. Tebow did just throw for 124 yards in the contest. If one were to remove that outlier of a score, the Broncos have scored 62 points in Tebow's other four starts, an average of 15.5 per game. It's not like the Broncos offense has been lighting up defenses with Tebow at the helm. They've partially been able to get away with this due to ball control. They ran the ball 40 times for 177 yards in their 18-15 win over Miami, helping them run over 34 minutes off the clock (+5 in plays). Even in their 45-10 blow-out loss to the Detroit Lions, Denver ran 14 more plays than the Lions, had the ball for close to 31 minutes and ran the ball 30 times for 195 yards. In their 38-24 win over the Raiders, Denver held the ball for about 32 minutes, as they rushed the ball 39 times for 299 yards. Denver held onto the ball for almost 34 minutes in their 17-10 win over the Kansas City Chiefs, rushing the ball 55 times for 244 yards in the game. In last night's win against the Jets, Denver rushed the ball 34 times for 125 yards. In Tebow's five starts, Denver has run the ball 198 times (39.6 p/g). With those kinds of numbers, it equals an advantage in time of possession and wearing defenses out in the 4th quarter.
Denver's defense has been fairly solid all year, but this has especially been the case when Tebow has started. In the five games when he was on the bench, Denver allowed 140 points (28.0 p/g). If one wants to remove the outlier that is the 49 points the Green Bay Packers scored, the Broncos allowed 91 points in their other four games (22.8 p/g). In the five games Tebow has started, the Broncos D has allowed just 107 points (21.4 p/g), 33 fewer points in an equal number of games and an average of 6.6 fewer points a game. This also includes the outlier that is the 45 points the Detroit Lions scored against Denver. Take that score out of the equation and the Bronco have allowed just 62 points in the other four games with Tebow as the starting quarterback (15.5 p/g). There have been two big hiccups by the Broncos defense this year (Green Bay and Detroit), but regardless, they've played about a touchdown better when Tebow has been under center than Kyle Orton.
The Broncos also haven't turned the ball over much with Tebow at quarterback. They're +1 in the category since he took over. as they've turned the ball over 5 times in the 5 games he's been starter and collected 6 turnovers. Three of the Broncos' turnovers, however, came in their 45-10 loss to the Lions. In the other four games, the Broncos have just 2 turnovers. In the five games preceding Tebow, the Broncos turned the ball over 12 times and collected 7, going -5 in that category, an average of -1 per game. It's a huge difference for a team to average turning the ball over once more than their opposition through five games and being even or a little better than their opponent in turnovers over the next five.
Was Tebow's final drive last night great? Yes, without question, especially for how awful he and the rest of the Broncos' offense was the rest of the game. However, let's not give this guy too much credit here. Why have the Broncos been winning with him at the helm? They've rushed the ball an average of about 40 times a game since he was inserted in the starting role. They've turned the ball over much less than they had been with Orton as starter. The biggest factor has been the defense, where they've allowed just over two touchdowns a game with Tebow as quarterback, if one excludes their hiccup against the Lions. Tebow has been a running version of Trent Dilfer. When Dilfer was quarterback of the Baltimore Ravens, he was basically asked not to turn the ball over. He was to hand the ball off to stud tailback Jamal Lewis and depend on he, the special teams and one of the best defenses in NFL history. The Broncos don't have a Ravens-like defense, but they are fairly stout. Their special teams have been very solid. Their backfield is deep, even without Knowshon Moreno. They also don't turn the ball over much. If they continue to do this, it'll be difficult to count them out of many games, yet at the same time, it'll be difficult for them to pull away from anybody. In any case, I'm still not sold on Tim Tebow. I'm more sold on rookies Cam Newton and Andy Dalton than Tebow. I'll be surprised if Denver is able to keep up their winning ways, but then again, I didn't think they'd get by the Jets, so who knows?
First off, before that final drive. all Tebow did was lead the Broncos to one field goal. The only other touchdown they scored was via an Andre Goodman 26-yard interception return. Points wise, the Broncos have as much to thank New York Jets' quarterback Mark Sanchez for as they do their own quarterback, one Tim Tebow.
In all seriousness, the Broncos had no business being in this game. The Jets turned the ball over twice, one which led to a touchdown as mentioned above. Denver accumulated just 11 first downs in the game, compared to 22 for the Jets. They accounted for a mere 229 yards of total offense, almost 100 less than New York (318). Tebow was only 9 for 20 passing the ball for 104 yards and a quarterback rating of 61.2. He also ran the ball 8 times for 68 yards (8.5 p/) and a score.
On the season now, Tebow has completed a paltry 44.8% of his passes (56-125) for 709 yards (just 5.67 p/att), 7 touchdowns and 1 pick for a quarterback rating of 78.4. There hasn't been a start this year where Tebow has completed 50% of his passes. His best such effort was against the Oakland Raiders, where he completed 10 of 21 pass attempts (47.6%). In last night's game, the quarterback got off to a solid start in thta category, completing 5 of his first 7 passes, but as the final stats indicate, he finished the game completing just 4 of 13 passes. I'll say it again, to this point in his career, Tim Tebow is not a good NFL quarterback. So, why do his Broncos keep winning?
I can think of three reasons why the Broncos have gone 4-1 with Tim Tebow as the starter: 1) Time of possession, 2) Solid defense and 3) Lack of turnovers.
In these five games, the Broncos have scored a combined 100 points, an average of 20.0 per game. That's including the 38-point outburst against the Oakland Raiders three weeks ago and a chunk of those points were scored due to the Broncos' special teams and defense. Tebow did just throw for 124 yards in the contest. If one were to remove that outlier of a score, the Broncos have scored 62 points in Tebow's other four starts, an average of 15.5 per game. It's not like the Broncos offense has been lighting up defenses with Tebow at the helm. They've partially been able to get away with this due to ball control. They ran the ball 40 times for 177 yards in their 18-15 win over Miami, helping them run over 34 minutes off the clock (+5 in plays). Even in their 45-10 blow-out loss to the Detroit Lions, Denver ran 14 more plays than the Lions, had the ball for close to 31 minutes and ran the ball 30 times for 195 yards. In their 38-24 win over the Raiders, Denver held the ball for about 32 minutes, as they rushed the ball 39 times for 299 yards. Denver held onto the ball for almost 34 minutes in their 17-10 win over the Kansas City Chiefs, rushing the ball 55 times for 244 yards in the game. In last night's win against the Jets, Denver rushed the ball 34 times for 125 yards. In Tebow's five starts, Denver has run the ball 198 times (39.6 p/g). With those kinds of numbers, it equals an advantage in time of possession and wearing defenses out in the 4th quarter.
Denver's defense has been fairly solid all year, but this has especially been the case when Tebow has started. In the five games when he was on the bench, Denver allowed 140 points (28.0 p/g). If one wants to remove the outlier that is the 49 points the Green Bay Packers scored, the Broncos allowed 91 points in their other four games (22.8 p/g). In the five games Tebow has started, the Broncos D has allowed just 107 points (21.4 p/g), 33 fewer points in an equal number of games and an average of 6.6 fewer points a game. This also includes the outlier that is the 45 points the Detroit Lions scored against Denver. Take that score out of the equation and the Bronco have allowed just 62 points in the other four games with Tebow as the starting quarterback (15.5 p/g). There have been two big hiccups by the Broncos defense this year (Green Bay and Detroit), but regardless, they've played about a touchdown better when Tebow has been under center than Kyle Orton.
The Broncos also haven't turned the ball over much with Tebow at quarterback. They're +1 in the category since he took over. as they've turned the ball over 5 times in the 5 games he's been starter and collected 6 turnovers. Three of the Broncos' turnovers, however, came in their 45-10 loss to the Lions. In the other four games, the Broncos have just 2 turnovers. In the five games preceding Tebow, the Broncos turned the ball over 12 times and collected 7, going -5 in that category, an average of -1 per game. It's a huge difference for a team to average turning the ball over once more than their opposition through five games and being even or a little better than their opponent in turnovers over the next five.
Was Tebow's final drive last night great? Yes, without question, especially for how awful he and the rest of the Broncos' offense was the rest of the game. However, let's not give this guy too much credit here. Why have the Broncos been winning with him at the helm? They've rushed the ball an average of about 40 times a game since he was inserted in the starting role. They've turned the ball over much less than they had been with Orton as starter. The biggest factor has been the defense, where they've allowed just over two touchdowns a game with Tebow as quarterback, if one excludes their hiccup against the Lions. Tebow has been a running version of Trent Dilfer. When Dilfer was quarterback of the Baltimore Ravens, he was basically asked not to turn the ball over. He was to hand the ball off to stud tailback Jamal Lewis and depend on he, the special teams and one of the best defenses in NFL history. The Broncos don't have a Ravens-like defense, but they are fairly stout. Their special teams have been very solid. Their backfield is deep, even without Knowshon Moreno. They also don't turn the ball over much. If they continue to do this, it'll be difficult to count them out of many games, yet at the same time, it'll be difficult for them to pull away from anybody. In any case, I'm still not sold on Tim Tebow. I'm more sold on rookies Cam Newton and Andy Dalton than Tebow. I'll be surprised if Denver is able to keep up their winning ways, but then again, I didn't think they'd get by the Jets, so who knows?
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