A couple months ago, I wrote about how now (then) was not the time to talk about impeaching Donald Trump. Post-Mueller report, I'd like to alter that opinion slightly.
First thing's first, Donald Trump is not going to be impeached by the Republican-controlled Senate, so even if the Democratic-controlled House begins going through impeachment proceedings, don't get your hopes up. While only a simple majority is needed in the House to impeach a president, a two-thirds majority is needed in the Senate. As Republicans currently possess 53 Senate seats, even if all 47 Democrats voted to impeach the president, 20 of 53 Republicans (37.7%) would need to follow suit. That's less likely than Donald Trump passing a polygraph test while hopped up on Adderall. So the only way Trump could realistically get impeached is if Senatorial Republicans magically grow a spine or Democrats take back the Senate in the 2020 elections. The former isn't going to happen, and for the latter to even be possible, Trump would have to be elected to a second term. So let's focus first and foremost on defeating him in the 2020 election.
Having said all that, while it may not be mathematically possible and it could serve as a detriment politically, I can now morally understand why House Democrats would like to start impeachment proceedings. As a matter of fact, I think they and the Senate should just hold a simple vote to see where things stand, and then move on from there. Chances are there would be enough votes to impeach Trump in the House, not enough in the Senate, and then we could focus on the 2020 elections, even using impeachment as a tool to win over more voters.
There is a dangerously fine line on which Democrats would have to walk down in order to make this work - where they take the rightful stand morally and don't get harmed politically. When Bill Clinton went through this process, his approval numbers increased by 10 points. While what he was alleged to have done is an apples and oranges comparison to Trump, the underlying fact is, when a president goes through the impeachment process, that's all the media talks about. Not only that, less than what's typical gets accomplished in Washington (and that's saying something...). It's essentially a shutdown without the official label. No matter what percentage of the population wants a president to be impeached, there tends to be a strong overlap between said voters and those who want the focus in Washington to be on actual issues, as opposed to impeachment. If Democrats focus all, or even most of their attention on the impeachment of Donald Trump, there's a good chance they'll lose in the 2020 elections. That seems to be a heavy price to pay for a mission which is dead on arrival. If Democrats don't try to impeach the president, however, they'll anger many in their base. So what do they do? Here's what I think...
Donald Trump doesn't deserve to get away with what he's done, yet since he's president, he's permitted to get away with them. The only way he'll continue to get away with them is if he's elected to a second term, yet if Democrats come out too strongly or weakly that he shouldn't get away with such acts, the odds increase of him getting reelected and continuing to get away with them. It's quite the conundrum... So here's what the Democratic Party should do til election day. First, they need to continue investigating Donald Trump and his innercircle. This may be seen and perhaps accurately described as a delay tactic to some, but the more damaging information we can uncover about the president, the more likely it'll be that he faces punishment once he exits the Oval Office and/or he gets impeached if he's elected to a second term. This might not be the swift action most of us desire, but it's the wise choice, particularly in the long run. Through these investigations, Democratic candidates would be wise to preach that they think Trump should be impeached, but inform voters of the impeachment process, how it's not mathematically possible, and that the only way it could become mathematically possible is to vote on election day. If the investigations end before election day, Democratic leaders should demand a quick vote on impeachment in both the House and the Senate to see where things stand before contemplating whether or not to move forward with the impeachment process. If the Senate seems to have enough votes to impeach Donald Trump, then great, please proceed. If, however, the likely result is there aren't enough votes in that body of Congress, Democrats can tell voters, "Look, we tried, but we don't have the numbers right now. We need your help." This way, the base can at least be somewhat satisfied with the work their representatives have put through and independents/undecideds won't be too turned off by the proceedings overall. It'll be a tough line to walk down in a balanced fashion, but I think it is possible, and I highly recommend the Democratic Party at least try to do so, and not risk another four years of the Donald Trump experiment (AKA embarrassment).
First thing's first, Donald Trump is not going to be impeached by the Republican-controlled Senate, so even if the Democratic-controlled House begins going through impeachment proceedings, don't get your hopes up. While only a simple majority is needed in the House to impeach a president, a two-thirds majority is needed in the Senate. As Republicans currently possess 53 Senate seats, even if all 47 Democrats voted to impeach the president, 20 of 53 Republicans (37.7%) would need to follow suit. That's less likely than Donald Trump passing a polygraph test while hopped up on Adderall. So the only way Trump could realistically get impeached is if Senatorial Republicans magically grow a spine or Democrats take back the Senate in the 2020 elections. The former isn't going to happen, and for the latter to even be possible, Trump would have to be elected to a second term. So let's focus first and foremost on defeating him in the 2020 election.
Having said all that, while it may not be mathematically possible and it could serve as a detriment politically, I can now morally understand why House Democrats would like to start impeachment proceedings. As a matter of fact, I think they and the Senate should just hold a simple vote to see where things stand, and then move on from there. Chances are there would be enough votes to impeach Trump in the House, not enough in the Senate, and then we could focus on the 2020 elections, even using impeachment as a tool to win over more voters.
There is a dangerously fine line on which Democrats would have to walk down in order to make this work - where they take the rightful stand morally and don't get harmed politically. When Bill Clinton went through this process, his approval numbers increased by 10 points. While what he was alleged to have done is an apples and oranges comparison to Trump, the underlying fact is, when a president goes through the impeachment process, that's all the media talks about. Not only that, less than what's typical gets accomplished in Washington (and that's saying something...). It's essentially a shutdown without the official label. No matter what percentage of the population wants a president to be impeached, there tends to be a strong overlap between said voters and those who want the focus in Washington to be on actual issues, as opposed to impeachment. If Democrats focus all, or even most of their attention on the impeachment of Donald Trump, there's a good chance they'll lose in the 2020 elections. That seems to be a heavy price to pay for a mission which is dead on arrival. If Democrats don't try to impeach the president, however, they'll anger many in their base. So what do they do? Here's what I think...
Donald Trump doesn't deserve to get away with what he's done, yet since he's president, he's permitted to get away with them. The only way he'll continue to get away with them is if he's elected to a second term, yet if Democrats come out too strongly or weakly that he shouldn't get away with such acts, the odds increase of him getting reelected and continuing to get away with them. It's quite the conundrum... So here's what the Democratic Party should do til election day. First, they need to continue investigating Donald Trump and his innercircle. This may be seen and perhaps accurately described as a delay tactic to some, but the more damaging information we can uncover about the president, the more likely it'll be that he faces punishment once he exits the Oval Office and/or he gets impeached if he's elected to a second term. This might not be the swift action most of us desire, but it's the wise choice, particularly in the long run. Through these investigations, Democratic candidates would be wise to preach that they think Trump should be impeached, but inform voters of the impeachment process, how it's not mathematically possible, and that the only way it could become mathematically possible is to vote on election day. If the investigations end before election day, Democratic leaders should demand a quick vote on impeachment in both the House and the Senate to see where things stand before contemplating whether or not to move forward with the impeachment process. If the Senate seems to have enough votes to impeach Donald Trump, then great, please proceed. If, however, the likely result is there aren't enough votes in that body of Congress, Democrats can tell voters, "Look, we tried, but we don't have the numbers right now. We need your help." This way, the base can at least be somewhat satisfied with the work their representatives have put through and independents/undecideds won't be too turned off by the proceedings overall. It'll be a tough line to walk down in a balanced fashion, but I think it is possible, and I highly recommend the Democratic Party at least try to do so, and not risk another four years of the Donald Trump experiment (AKA embarrassment).
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