In my journey to attaining three degrees in psychology, I learned about what is coined the recency effect, which suggests the last (most recent) thing a person sees or hears will be remembered best. Makes sense, right? Well, my education gave me an ah-ha moment yesterday (and today) following the conclusion of the NFC Championship game between the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints, as this recency effect was on full display by analysts everywhere.
With the game tied 20-20 late in the 4th quarter and the Saints down inside the red zone, a Rams defender made contact with a Saints receiver prior to the ball arriving on a 3rd down play. No flag was thrown and the Saints had to settle for a field goal, with plenty of time remaining for the Rams to drive down the field, kick a field goal of their own, and eventually win in overtime. All these analysts and "experts" have been saying post-game is that the Saints got robbed. Pass interference should have been called. This would have placed the team in prime position to drain the clock and kick a game-winning field goal. Fair enough, but they're missing the larger picture.
First off, the officiating was, eh, not ideal in the two championship games. Yes, I'm trying to be nice... There were missed calls every which way in both contests. Now, I'll be the first to admit the play in question was without a doubt pass interference. The only way it wasn't is if the ball had been tipped prior to the defender making contact with the receiver. I personally have not seen evidence of said tip, so as of now, I'm going to say it was pass interference. This would have placed the ball at around the 5-yard-line for a 1st-and-goal. So, that's that. The Saints would have drained the clock and kicked a field goal to go up 23-20 with very little time left, right? As Lee Corso is known for saying, "Not so fast, my friend."
On the previous possession, when the Rams had the ball inside the 10-yard-line, facing a 2nd-and-goal, down 20-17, quarterback Jared Goff scrambled, had his head turned sideways due to an obvious face mask, and was taken down inside the 5-yard-line to bring up a 3rd down. LA reached the 1-yard-line on 3rd down and settled for a game-tying field goal. There was no mistaking it; Goff had his head turned by the face mask. It was as black-and-white a penalty as one could draw up, yet no flag was thrown. This would have placed the Rams at roughly the 2-yard-line for a 1st-and-goal, down 20-17. They could have drained more time off the clock and the odds are quite high they would have scored a touchdown to take a 24-20 lead. So even if we want to pretend the two situations are identical (they aren't) and the Saints got the ball at the 5-yard-line for a 1st-and-goal via a pass interference call, they couldn't have drained the clock and settled for a field goal. A field goal would have done them no good there. They'd have to score a touchdown and that's no guarantee. While it's no guarantee, there's also a sense of urgency, which would also increase the odds of, if the Saints did score a touchdown, they'd do it with more time remaining on the clock than in the before-mentioned scenario. So if they did score in a quick fashion, they'd lead 27-24 with plenty of time remaining for the Rams to drive down the field and tie the game, like they did anyway. Looking at things more realistically, however, there's a stark difference between a team having the ball deep in their own territory late in a tie game, needing only a field goal, than in a game where they're down, needing a touchdown. Could Drew Brees and company have done it? Of course. But I can guarantee you the playcalling on both sides of the ball would have been drastically different, so it's virtually impossible to say we know with any bit of certainty what would have happened in this hypothetical situation.
While we like to play the scapegoat card in sports, very rarely is any game decided by a single play. There were 132 plays run in this game. Analysts are seriously trying to suggest that 1 of these 132 plays is all that mattered in its outcome? The Saints rushed for a mere 48 yards on 21 carries (2.3 per). They gained just 290 yards overall, 88 fewer than the Rams had. For the game, the Rams averaged to start with the ball at their own 22-yard-line. This included 4 of their 11 drives starting inside the 19 (2 inside the 10). The Saints, on the other hand, averaged to start with the ball at their own 33. Not once did they start the ball inside their own 19, and on two occasions they started drives inside Rams territory. On these two drives, New Orleans scored a combined 3 points.
So, look, I can fully understand Saints fans lashing out at the awful officiating from yesterday, but that one missed pass interference call was not what ultimately cost them the game. Averaging just over 2 yards per carry against the 27th-ranked rush defense was a much larger factor. Only mustering a mere 3 points in two drives that started in Rams territory was a much larger factor. Gaining less than 300 yards for the game was a much larger factor. Yes, the refs blew a pass interference call which should have gone the Saints way, but they also blew a face-mask call which should have gone the Rams way, and no matter how hard we think about it, we'll never know the answers to all our what if questions. In the end, both teams got hosed on some calls and the team which made more of their opportunities than the other came out victorious.
With the game tied 20-20 late in the 4th quarter and the Saints down inside the red zone, a Rams defender made contact with a Saints receiver prior to the ball arriving on a 3rd down play. No flag was thrown and the Saints had to settle for a field goal, with plenty of time remaining for the Rams to drive down the field, kick a field goal of their own, and eventually win in overtime. All these analysts and "experts" have been saying post-game is that the Saints got robbed. Pass interference should have been called. This would have placed the team in prime position to drain the clock and kick a game-winning field goal. Fair enough, but they're missing the larger picture.
First off, the officiating was, eh, not ideal in the two championship games. Yes, I'm trying to be nice... There were missed calls every which way in both contests. Now, I'll be the first to admit the play in question was without a doubt pass interference. The only way it wasn't is if the ball had been tipped prior to the defender making contact with the receiver. I personally have not seen evidence of said tip, so as of now, I'm going to say it was pass interference. This would have placed the ball at around the 5-yard-line for a 1st-and-goal. So, that's that. The Saints would have drained the clock and kicked a field goal to go up 23-20 with very little time left, right? As Lee Corso is known for saying, "Not so fast, my friend."
On the previous possession, when the Rams had the ball inside the 10-yard-line, facing a 2nd-and-goal, down 20-17, quarterback Jared Goff scrambled, had his head turned sideways due to an obvious face mask, and was taken down inside the 5-yard-line to bring up a 3rd down. LA reached the 1-yard-line on 3rd down and settled for a game-tying field goal. There was no mistaking it; Goff had his head turned by the face mask. It was as black-and-white a penalty as one could draw up, yet no flag was thrown. This would have placed the Rams at roughly the 2-yard-line for a 1st-and-goal, down 20-17. They could have drained more time off the clock and the odds are quite high they would have scored a touchdown to take a 24-20 lead. So even if we want to pretend the two situations are identical (they aren't) and the Saints got the ball at the 5-yard-line for a 1st-and-goal via a pass interference call, they couldn't have drained the clock and settled for a field goal. A field goal would have done them no good there. They'd have to score a touchdown and that's no guarantee. While it's no guarantee, there's also a sense of urgency, which would also increase the odds of, if the Saints did score a touchdown, they'd do it with more time remaining on the clock than in the before-mentioned scenario. So if they did score in a quick fashion, they'd lead 27-24 with plenty of time remaining for the Rams to drive down the field and tie the game, like they did anyway. Looking at things more realistically, however, there's a stark difference between a team having the ball deep in their own territory late in a tie game, needing only a field goal, than in a game where they're down, needing a touchdown. Could Drew Brees and company have done it? Of course. But I can guarantee you the playcalling on both sides of the ball would have been drastically different, so it's virtually impossible to say we know with any bit of certainty what would have happened in this hypothetical situation.
While we like to play the scapegoat card in sports, very rarely is any game decided by a single play. There were 132 plays run in this game. Analysts are seriously trying to suggest that 1 of these 132 plays is all that mattered in its outcome? The Saints rushed for a mere 48 yards on 21 carries (2.3 per). They gained just 290 yards overall, 88 fewer than the Rams had. For the game, the Rams averaged to start with the ball at their own 22-yard-line. This included 4 of their 11 drives starting inside the 19 (2 inside the 10). The Saints, on the other hand, averaged to start with the ball at their own 33. Not once did they start the ball inside their own 19, and on two occasions they started drives inside Rams territory. On these two drives, New Orleans scored a combined 3 points.
So, look, I can fully understand Saints fans lashing out at the awful officiating from yesterday, but that one missed pass interference call was not what ultimately cost them the game. Averaging just over 2 yards per carry against the 27th-ranked rush defense was a much larger factor. Only mustering a mere 3 points in two drives that started in Rams territory was a much larger factor. Gaining less than 300 yards for the game was a much larger factor. Yes, the refs blew a pass interference call which should have gone the Saints way, but they also blew a face-mask call which should have gone the Rams way, and no matter how hard we think about it, we'll never know the answers to all our what if questions. In the end, both teams got hosed on some calls and the team which made more of their opportunities than the other came out victorious.
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