While watching football yesterday (and hearing commentary on SportsCenter), these random thoughts came to my mind:
- I can officially say I don't like the fade pass, especially in college. Unless a team has a Calvin Johnson to throw to (and there is only one Calvin Johnson), the ball typically winds up being lofted up like in the old childhood game 500. If it's underthrown, it could very well be intercepted. If it's overthrown, it will likely be an incompletion. There is very little margin for error when making this throw and like I said, unless Calvin Johnson is the receiver, I've found it to be quite difficult to get things right on the fade. It feels like a very low-percentage play and on most occasions, I just see it as a wasted down.
- Most coaches have a chart to tell them in which situations to go for a two-point conversion. Late in the game, if they're down by 11, and score a touchdown, they'll likely go for two to try and trim the lead to 3, so they can potentially tie things with a field goal. Why don't coaches hold a similar chart for when to kick a field goal and when to go for the touchdown? Yesterday in the Baylor/Oklahoma State game, Baylor led in the 2nd half by the score of 24-10 and had the ball inside the Okie State 10-yard line, and faced a 4th and short. Baylor went for it and were stopped short. Why? It's about possessions. The more possessions it takes for an opponent to come back, the more difficult it's going to be to do so, with the odds becoming progressively greater throughout the course of the game. At that point in the game, Baylor was up 14 points or two possessions. If they had kicked a field goal, they'd be up by 17 points or three possessions. Even if Oklahoma State scored two touchdowns and two two-point conversions, they still would have trailed by a single point. Coaches really need to start thinking more in terms of odds and math, and less on emotion.
- I did some research and the most recent study I could find suggested that in college football, teams whom win the coin toss in overtime and opt to play defense first win approximately 52% of the time and lose 48%. Since it seems to be a "no-brainer" for coaches to always opt to go on defense first, I had expected the numbers to be a little more pronounced than they were - a +4% chance of winning the overtime session. My question now is, what are these numbers when we break things down further? Do those numbers differ at all for home and away teams? When a team scores a touchdown on their first possession in overtime, what is their likelihood of winning? Does this change based on the game being played home or away? Do the numbers alter much or any when games go into subsequent overtimes? I'm especially curious, because I wrote a few days ago that if I were a college football head coach, I would seriously think about going on offense first if my team were playing on the road and probably opting to go on defense first if we were at home. I'll be curious to see if there have been any studies showcasing such stats.
- I was born and raised in Nebraska. Pretty much all we have there in terms of sports is the Nebraska Cornhuskers in college football. That's it. To say people in the state obsess over Nebraska football would be like saying John Boehner obsesses over crying. Each and every Saturday during the college football season, I read between 5-20 Facebook statuses all centering around the Nebraska games. When things aren't going well, but the game is close, there's a 82.1% chance the refs will get blamed and a 17.2% chance the opponent will be called dirty. When things aren't going well and the team is getting blown out, while a few complaints may be made about the officiating and opponent being dirty, most of the comments call for the firing of the coaching staff. There's nothing unusual about this. I notice this same kind of thing with die-hard fans of each and every team. However, after all this blaming and complaining takes place for 3-4 hours, I'll then read one comment saying something like, "Well, at least win or lose, Nebraska fans are still the best, more respectful fans in all of college football!" Really? I've lived in Nebraska, near Columbus, Ohio, and have a great number of family members near Detroit. I've been around die-hard fans of Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan, and other teams. I honestly don't notice much difference between any of them. They all love their teams, complain when things don't go well, are giddy when things go well, clap when an injured player walks/is helped off the field, etc.
- Touching on the NFL for a moment... I am amazed that we're still getting weekly Tim Tebow updates. Why? Through 11 games, Tebow has thrown a total of 7 passes, has run the ball 29 times, and accounted for a total of 126 yards from scrimmage. He's averaging to throw a little more than half a pass per game, run the ball a little more than two and a half times a game, for a total of about eleven and a half yards per game. The Jets have gained 3,418 yards this year. Tebow's 126 is worth just 3.7% of the team's total offense. Yet week in and week out, we get ourselves a Tim Tebow update. At this pace, we'll one day receive a top ten list of Tim Tebow sideline highlights courtesy of ESPN. These will include him: Wiping his nose, yawning, laughing, reading the Bible, talking, praying, sitting, sleeping, drooling, snoring, and drawing pictures.
- I can officially say I don't like the fade pass, especially in college. Unless a team has a Calvin Johnson to throw to (and there is only one Calvin Johnson), the ball typically winds up being lofted up like in the old childhood game 500. If it's underthrown, it could very well be intercepted. If it's overthrown, it will likely be an incompletion. There is very little margin for error when making this throw and like I said, unless Calvin Johnson is the receiver, I've found it to be quite difficult to get things right on the fade. It feels like a very low-percentage play and on most occasions, I just see it as a wasted down.
- Most coaches have a chart to tell them in which situations to go for a two-point conversion. Late in the game, if they're down by 11, and score a touchdown, they'll likely go for two to try and trim the lead to 3, so they can potentially tie things with a field goal. Why don't coaches hold a similar chart for when to kick a field goal and when to go for the touchdown? Yesterday in the Baylor/Oklahoma State game, Baylor led in the 2nd half by the score of 24-10 and had the ball inside the Okie State 10-yard line, and faced a 4th and short. Baylor went for it and were stopped short. Why? It's about possessions. The more possessions it takes for an opponent to come back, the more difficult it's going to be to do so, with the odds becoming progressively greater throughout the course of the game. At that point in the game, Baylor was up 14 points or two possessions. If they had kicked a field goal, they'd be up by 17 points or three possessions. Even if Oklahoma State scored two touchdowns and two two-point conversions, they still would have trailed by a single point. Coaches really need to start thinking more in terms of odds and math, and less on emotion.
- I did some research and the most recent study I could find suggested that in college football, teams whom win the coin toss in overtime and opt to play defense first win approximately 52% of the time and lose 48%. Since it seems to be a "no-brainer" for coaches to always opt to go on defense first, I had expected the numbers to be a little more pronounced than they were - a +4% chance of winning the overtime session. My question now is, what are these numbers when we break things down further? Do those numbers differ at all for home and away teams? When a team scores a touchdown on their first possession in overtime, what is their likelihood of winning? Does this change based on the game being played home or away? Do the numbers alter much or any when games go into subsequent overtimes? I'm especially curious, because I wrote a few days ago that if I were a college football head coach, I would seriously think about going on offense first if my team were playing on the road and probably opting to go on defense first if we were at home. I'll be curious to see if there have been any studies showcasing such stats.
- I was born and raised in Nebraska. Pretty much all we have there in terms of sports is the Nebraska Cornhuskers in college football. That's it. To say people in the state obsess over Nebraska football would be like saying John Boehner obsesses over crying. Each and every Saturday during the college football season, I read between 5-20 Facebook statuses all centering around the Nebraska games. When things aren't going well, but the game is close, there's a 82.1% chance the refs will get blamed and a 17.2% chance the opponent will be called dirty. When things aren't going well and the team is getting blown out, while a few complaints may be made about the officiating and opponent being dirty, most of the comments call for the firing of the coaching staff. There's nothing unusual about this. I notice this same kind of thing with die-hard fans of each and every team. However, after all this blaming and complaining takes place for 3-4 hours, I'll then read one comment saying something like, "Well, at least win or lose, Nebraska fans are still the best, more respectful fans in all of college football!" Really? I've lived in Nebraska, near Columbus, Ohio, and have a great number of family members near Detroit. I've been around die-hard fans of Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan, and other teams. I honestly don't notice much difference between any of them. They all love their teams, complain when things don't go well, are giddy when things go well, clap when an injured player walks/is helped off the field, etc.
- Touching on the NFL for a moment... I am amazed that we're still getting weekly Tim Tebow updates. Why? Through 11 games, Tebow has thrown a total of 7 passes, has run the ball 29 times, and accounted for a total of 126 yards from scrimmage. He's averaging to throw a little more than half a pass per game, run the ball a little more than two and a half times a game, for a total of about eleven and a half yards per game. The Jets have gained 3,418 yards this year. Tebow's 126 is worth just 3.7% of the team's total offense. Yet week in and week out, we get ourselves a Tim Tebow update. At this pace, we'll one day receive a top ten list of Tim Tebow sideline highlights courtesy of ESPN. These will include him: Wiping his nose, yawning, laughing, reading the Bible, talking, praying, sitting, sleeping, drooling, snoring, and drawing pictures.
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