Another year and another ridiculous quarterback contract extension. This is getting to be as predictable as offensive Donald Trump tweets. This time it's the San Francisco 49ers overpaying a man behind center, as they just signed Jimmy Garoppolo to a 5-year, $137.5 million extension, making him the new highest paid player in the NFL. Of all the ridiculous quarterback contract extensions in recent years, this may be the most head-scratching and facepalm-inducing.
Should the San Francisco 49ers be excited about Garoppolo, the guy who led them to a perfect 5-0 record at the tail-end of last season? Of course. Should they be prepared to pay him more money if he proves to be a consistent and successful starter? Of course. The guy has only started 7 games in his 4-year career to this point, though. Even when he led the Niners to a 5-0 record last year, Garoppolo only had a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 7:5. The 49ers haven't played a postseason game since 2013 and are now investing a good chunk of their money in a guy who's only started 7 more games than I have in the National Football League. As history would dictate, when teams opt to place their stock in a quarterback and not in the team around him, they suffer in the years to come. Let's look at the five most recent such examples. I'll exclude Matthew Stafford of the Detroit Lions, for the team's only played one season post-contract extension. For the record, though, the Lions made the playoffs in 3 of 8 seasons prior to the extension and did not make the postseason this past season.
Baltimore Ravens
- On 3/4/13, they signed Joe Flacco to a 6-year, $120.6 million extension
- Pre-extension record ('08-'12): 54-26, 9-4 in the postseason (made playoffs 5 of 5 years)
- Post-extension record ('13-'17): 38-36, 1-1 in the post season (made playoffs 1 of 5 years)
San Francisco 49ers
- On 6/4/14, they signed Colin Kaepernick to a 6-year, $126 million extension
- Pre-extension record ('11-'13): 17-6, 4-2 in the postseason (made playoffs 3 of 3 years)
- Post-extension record ('14-'17): 17-34, 0-0 in the postseason (made playoffs 0 of 4 years)
Cincinnati Bengals
- On 8/4/14, they signed Andy Dalton to a 6-year, $115 million extension
- Pre-extension record ('11-'13): 30-18, 0-3 in the postseason (made playoffs 3 of 3 years)
- Post-extension record ('14-'17): 33-26-2, 0-1 in the post season (made playoffs 2 of 4 years)
Miami Dolphins
- On 5/18/15, they signed Ryan Tannehill to a 6-year, $96 million extension
- Pre-extension record ('12-'14): 23-25, 0-0 in the postseason (made playoffs 0 of 3 years)
- Post-extension record ('15-'17): 20-25, 0-1 in the postseason (made playoffs 1 of 3 years)
Indianapolis Colts
- On 6/29/16, they signed Andrew Luck to a 6-year, $140 million extension
- Pre-extension record ('12-'15): 35-20, 3-3 in the postseason (made playoffs 3 of 4 years)
- Post-extension record ('16-'17): 12-19, 0-0 in the postseason (made playoffs 0 of 2 years)
Combining these numbers, here's how they break down:
Pre-extension record: 159-95 (.626)
Post-extension record: 120-140-2 (.458)
Difference: -.168
Pre-extension playoff appearances: 14 for 18 (77.8%)
Post-extension playoff appearances: 4 for 18 (22.2%)
Difference: -55.6%
We'll see how this Garoppolo deal pans out, but if history is any guide, the odds aren't looking good...
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