Even with his approval ratings right around 45%, I'm growing more and more confident that Barack Obama will be re-elected in the 2012 election and I'm going to call it right now - Obama wins the 2012 election.
There are a few reasons why my confidence on this matter is growing. First off, history gives Obama a very good chance. In a majority of cases, incumbent presidents win their re-election bid. There are exceptions, of course (Carter, H.W., etc.), but those exceptions are definitely in the minority.
Secondly, for as awful as things have looked at times in this country, especially on the economic/jobs front, Obama's approval has been fairly steady, in the 43-50% range. He hasn't dropped below 40%, which means while a good majority of the country isn't happy with how things are going right now, they're not assessing all or even most of the blame to Obama and are willing to give him some more time to right the ship, so to speak. With the unemployment rate dropping in recent months, the recent victory for Democrats with the payroll tax, ending the war in Iraq, etc., Obama's numbers are unlikely to drop anytime soon. They may even raise some and as the new year hits us, Democrats could very well be smiling with optimism for 2012.
Thirdly, while Congress has polled worse than Charles Manson on being a good role model, the public is more angry with the Republican members of Congress than the Democratic ones. The public blamed the GOP much more than their counterparts for the ineffectiveness of Congress and were seen as much less likely to reach out to the other side of the aisle than Democrats. If this becomes another anti-incumbent election, the GOP will be severely hampered by the results, especially in the House, where they hold a decent majority. If the voters are consistent with this motive, then the Democrats could be hindered in the Senate, but given the fact the public appears to be more angry with the GOP, I honestly wonder if the Democrats will feel the brunt of the general anger in the Senate.
Lastly, the Republicans do not have a likable candidate. I'm not just saying that because I'm a liberal. Ask honest Republicans what they feel about their candidates and they'll likely give a scowl in return. This is why there have been such drastic swings in the race. We went from Michele Bachmann to Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt Gingrich and in recent days, Gingrich's numbers have dipped, with Ron Paul and Mitt Romney benefiting. In 2008, the Democratic field was narrowed to Hilary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards fairly early. Edwards dropped out not long afterward, so really, it was a two-person race for the majority of the primary. Either Clinton or Obama would likely have defeated McCain in the election. The GOP does not have that right now and they know it. They're TRYING to find that likable candidate. Rick Perry and Herman Cain were likable, but they then tried talking policy and were kicked to the curb. In the television age, the appearance and personality of the candidates have just as much to do with (if not more) being elected as their policy ideas. We had Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Billy Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, all of whom were more likable than their opponents.
So, there we have it. Nothing should be taken for granted. I recommend everyone to go out and vote on election day. BUT I am fairly optimistic that Obama will be re-elected come November of 2012.
There are a few reasons why my confidence on this matter is growing. First off, history gives Obama a very good chance. In a majority of cases, incumbent presidents win their re-election bid. There are exceptions, of course (Carter, H.W., etc.), but those exceptions are definitely in the minority.
Secondly, for as awful as things have looked at times in this country, especially on the economic/jobs front, Obama's approval has been fairly steady, in the 43-50% range. He hasn't dropped below 40%, which means while a good majority of the country isn't happy with how things are going right now, they're not assessing all or even most of the blame to Obama and are willing to give him some more time to right the ship, so to speak. With the unemployment rate dropping in recent months, the recent victory for Democrats with the payroll tax, ending the war in Iraq, etc., Obama's numbers are unlikely to drop anytime soon. They may even raise some and as the new year hits us, Democrats could very well be smiling with optimism for 2012.
Thirdly, while Congress has polled worse than Charles Manson on being a good role model, the public is more angry with the Republican members of Congress than the Democratic ones. The public blamed the GOP much more than their counterparts for the ineffectiveness of Congress and were seen as much less likely to reach out to the other side of the aisle than Democrats. If this becomes another anti-incumbent election, the GOP will be severely hampered by the results, especially in the House, where they hold a decent majority. If the voters are consistent with this motive, then the Democrats could be hindered in the Senate, but given the fact the public appears to be more angry with the GOP, I honestly wonder if the Democrats will feel the brunt of the general anger in the Senate.
Lastly, the Republicans do not have a likable candidate. I'm not just saying that because I'm a liberal. Ask honest Republicans what they feel about their candidates and they'll likely give a scowl in return. This is why there have been such drastic swings in the race. We went from Michele Bachmann to Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt Gingrich and in recent days, Gingrich's numbers have dipped, with Ron Paul and Mitt Romney benefiting. In 2008, the Democratic field was narrowed to Hilary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards fairly early. Edwards dropped out not long afterward, so really, it was a two-person race for the majority of the primary. Either Clinton or Obama would likely have defeated McCain in the election. The GOP does not have that right now and they know it. They're TRYING to find that likable candidate. Rick Perry and Herman Cain were likable, but they then tried talking policy and were kicked to the curb. In the television age, the appearance and personality of the candidates have just as much to do with (if not more) being elected as their policy ideas. We had Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Billy Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, all of whom were more likable than their opponents.
So, there we have it. Nothing should be taken for granted. I recommend everyone to go out and vote on election day. BUT I am fairly optimistic that Obama will be re-elected come November of 2012.
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