Almost every sports writer and analyst said that the game was all but decided. Even if LSU were to lose the SEC Championship Game against Georgia, they would likely go to the big game at season's end. It was going to be a re-match of their 9-6 overtime game not long ago between those same LSU Tigers and the Alabama Crimson Tide. Mark it. They're the two best teams in the country and nobody would be able to prevent a re-match. Then Oklahoma State had to close the night last night by dominating in-state rival Oklahoma, the 10th-ranked team in the country, 44-10 and it wasn't even that close. So, now what? With Virginia Tech losing to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game and Stanford not playing in the Pac-12 Championship, one would have to think that Oklahoma State will likely jump to 3rd, at worst, in the human polls. Since they defeated #10 Oklahoma, chances are the Cowboys will move up to 2nd in the computer polls. In other words, it's going to be close. BCS guru, Brad Edwards, just stated that the battle for the #2 spot in the polls will likely be the closest since the inception of the BCS system. That means one thing, there's going to be some controversy after the games are announced tonight, some mumblings and grumblings of a playoff.
Who do I feel would win a game between Alabama and Oklahoma State? Probably Alabama. I'm a regular believer that great defenses beat great offenses and I think the same would hold for this hypothetical match-up and with Trent Richardson rushing the ball at one of the worst defenses in the country, I have to like the Tide's chances. But, like I said, it's a hypothetical match-up and I can't choose the team which I feel would win this make-believe match-up as the team most deserving to play in the National Championship Game. It's about the teams' resumes. Based on what the teams have done this season, who is the most deserving of playing LSU in the title game? That's what we do in college basketball to decide on who have the top four resumes in all of the country and reward those teams the #1 seeds.
We'll start with Alabama, who has had a pretty easy go of things this year outside of their 9-6 overtime loss to unbeaten and top-ranked LSU. They've won every other game by at least 16 points, that game coming against Penn State, as they beat the Nittany Lions 27-11. Their schedule strength has been anything but stellar, though. Out-of-conference, they defeated: Kent State (5-7), Penn State (9-3), North Texas (5-7) and I-AA Georgia Southern (N/A). In-conference, they beat: Arkansas (10-2), Florida (6-6), Vanderbilt (6-6), Mississippi (2-10), Tennessee (5-7), Mississippi State (6-6) and Auburn (7-5). Excluding Georgia Southern, Alabama's other ten wins came against teams with a combined record of 61-59 (.508). Out of those eleven opponents, six could potentially make bowl games (54.5%), three of these six are 6-6, so only three of Alabama's wins have come against teams that will be guaranteed of winning records when the bowl games are complete (27.3%). When the season is complete, only two of their wins would have come against potential Top 25 teams (18.2%) and if Penn State loses in their bowl game, the only guaranteed Top 25 victory will have come against 10-2 Arkansas (9.1%).
Now onto Oklahoma State, whose only loss came to 6-6 Iowa State three weeks ago in double overtime. It should be noted that this game was played not long following the tragedy which struck the University due to the loss of some members of their women's basketball team whom were involved in a plane crash and were pronounced dead. Okie State wasn't quite as dominant overall as Alabama, as they were involved in three additional games decided by 12 points or less, in their wins over Texas A&M (30-29), Texas (38-26) and Kansas State (52-45). On the flip side, their schedule was more difficult than Alabama's. The Cowboys' non-conference wins came against: Louisiana-Lafayette (8-4), Arizona (4-8) and Tulsa (8-4). Their Big XII victories came against: Texas A&M (6-6), Kansas (2-10), Texas (7-5), Missouri (7-5), Baylor (9-3), Kansas State (10-2), Texas Tech (5-7) and Oklahoma (9-3). Their wins came against opponents with a combined record of 75-57 (.568). Of these eleven opponents, eight could potentially go to bowl games (72.7%). Only one of these wins came against a 6-6 team, so when all the bowl games are played, 7 of Okie State's 11 wins will have come against teams with winning records (63.6%). Three of Oklahoma State's wins will have come against Top 25 competition (27.3%), as they've beaten Baylor, Kansas State and Oklahoma. There's also an outside chance that Texas and/or Missouri could wind up in the Top 25 if they win their respective bowl games.
So, now what? As far as losses go, Alabama's overtime loss to LSU looks better than Oklahoma State's loss to Iowa State. While the computers won't be able to factor this into the equation, though, humans should remember the events that surrounded the Oklahoma State loss. In terms of strength of schedule and wins, Oklahoma State holds a decided advantage. Also the fact that the Cowboys won the Big XII outright and Alabama didn't go to their conference championship game, let alone win it, is another edge Okie State holds over the Crimson Tide. Lastly, there's also the fact that Alabama has already played LSU, at home, and lost to the Tigers. Given all of this, while like I said earlier that I feel Alabama would defeat Oklahoma State head-to-head, I do believe that the Cowboys' resume is stronger than the Tide's, and should be rewarded with a trip to the National Championship Game against LSU. Will they be successful if given that opportunity? Who knows? If I had money, I'd place it on LSU. However, Alabama had their chance, lost and it's time Okie State got theirs.
Who do I feel would win a game between Alabama and Oklahoma State? Probably Alabama. I'm a regular believer that great defenses beat great offenses and I think the same would hold for this hypothetical match-up and with Trent Richardson rushing the ball at one of the worst defenses in the country, I have to like the Tide's chances. But, like I said, it's a hypothetical match-up and I can't choose the team which I feel would win this make-believe match-up as the team most deserving to play in the National Championship Game. It's about the teams' resumes. Based on what the teams have done this season, who is the most deserving of playing LSU in the title game? That's what we do in college basketball to decide on who have the top four resumes in all of the country and reward those teams the #1 seeds.
We'll start with Alabama, who has had a pretty easy go of things this year outside of their 9-6 overtime loss to unbeaten and top-ranked LSU. They've won every other game by at least 16 points, that game coming against Penn State, as they beat the Nittany Lions 27-11. Their schedule strength has been anything but stellar, though. Out-of-conference, they defeated: Kent State (5-7), Penn State (9-3), North Texas (5-7) and I-AA Georgia Southern (N/A). In-conference, they beat: Arkansas (10-2), Florida (6-6), Vanderbilt (6-6), Mississippi (2-10), Tennessee (5-7), Mississippi State (6-6) and Auburn (7-5). Excluding Georgia Southern, Alabama's other ten wins came against teams with a combined record of 61-59 (.508). Out of those eleven opponents, six could potentially make bowl games (54.5%), three of these six are 6-6, so only three of Alabama's wins have come against teams that will be guaranteed of winning records when the bowl games are complete (27.3%). When the season is complete, only two of their wins would have come against potential Top 25 teams (18.2%) and if Penn State loses in their bowl game, the only guaranteed Top 25 victory will have come against 10-2 Arkansas (9.1%).
Now onto Oklahoma State, whose only loss came to 6-6 Iowa State three weeks ago in double overtime. It should be noted that this game was played not long following the tragedy which struck the University due to the loss of some members of their women's basketball team whom were involved in a plane crash and were pronounced dead. Okie State wasn't quite as dominant overall as Alabama, as they were involved in three additional games decided by 12 points or less, in their wins over Texas A&M (30-29), Texas (38-26) and Kansas State (52-45). On the flip side, their schedule was more difficult than Alabama's. The Cowboys' non-conference wins came against: Louisiana-Lafayette (8-4), Arizona (4-8) and Tulsa (8-4). Their Big XII victories came against: Texas A&M (6-6), Kansas (2-10), Texas (7-5), Missouri (7-5), Baylor (9-3), Kansas State (10-2), Texas Tech (5-7) and Oklahoma (9-3). Their wins came against opponents with a combined record of 75-57 (.568). Of these eleven opponents, eight could potentially go to bowl games (72.7%). Only one of these wins came against a 6-6 team, so when all the bowl games are played, 7 of Okie State's 11 wins will have come against teams with winning records (63.6%). Three of Oklahoma State's wins will have come against Top 25 competition (27.3%), as they've beaten Baylor, Kansas State and Oklahoma. There's also an outside chance that Texas and/or Missouri could wind up in the Top 25 if they win their respective bowl games.
So, now what? As far as losses go, Alabama's overtime loss to LSU looks better than Oklahoma State's loss to Iowa State. While the computers won't be able to factor this into the equation, though, humans should remember the events that surrounded the Oklahoma State loss. In terms of strength of schedule and wins, Oklahoma State holds a decided advantage. Also the fact that the Cowboys won the Big XII outright and Alabama didn't go to their conference championship game, let alone win it, is another edge Okie State holds over the Crimson Tide. Lastly, there's also the fact that Alabama has already played LSU, at home, and lost to the Tigers. Given all of this, while like I said earlier that I feel Alabama would defeat Oklahoma State head-to-head, I do believe that the Cowboys' resume is stronger than the Tide's, and should be rewarded with a trip to the National Championship Game against LSU. Will they be successful if given that opportunity? Who knows? If I had money, I'd place it on LSU. However, Alabama had their chance, lost and it's time Okie State got theirs.
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