In previous blogs, I've gone into detail about how Tim Tebow should NOT be the person being praised and heralded for the Denver Broncos' recent winning ways. The defense has come up big, allowing just 14.2 points per game in 6 of Tebow's 8 starts, which would rank them 2nd behind only San Francisco (14.0). In 6 of his 8 starts, the Broncos have averaged only 15.2 points per game, which would rank them 27th (of 32) in the league. The offensive line has also been extraordinary in their run-blocking. The running backs keep coming up large. The special teams have done their job in either scoring points themselves or setting the offense up in good scoring position.
What makes me laugh about all of this is the fact Tebow has played dreadfully in most of his starts for approximately three quarters, before turning things around in the 4th. It's the ol' recency effect - people remember the last thing in a series of events more so than any other. It's what's freshest in their mind, so that makes sense. However, being as I am, it's extremely difficult for me to forget the first three quarters. With this kind of trend, how would Tebow fare in other sports? If the guy were a starting pitcher and threw terribly for 3/4 of the game, he wouldn't make it that far. If he struggled enough, he'd be relieved in the 3rd or 4th inning (possibly sooner) and not be afforded the opportunity of coming up big in the later innings. If he struggled enough at the start of a golf tournament, he wouldn't make the cut and not be allowed to come back and win. It may be a mixed bag in basketball, where he could consistently play terribly for the majority of games but then hit a game-winning shot. If he were the main scorer on the team, this probably wouldn't be effective, because the team would likely be down so many points by the time he found his stroke in the 4th quarter, that it'd be too little too late. If he were a role player, he'd likely wind up being a late-game sub in an attempt to add some spark to the team and potentially nail some 3-pointers in order to close the gap. In bowling, if he were to struggle for 7 of 10 frames, unless he's facing a 2-month old professional, chances are he won't be able to come all the way back.
What's my point? Tebow's trend is abnormal in the world of sports and it won't last so long as he continues to play poorly for 3/4 of the game. What he has going for him that he wouldn't in golf, bowling or baseball, is the fact he has 10 other guys on the field to lean on, a defense to keep things close and special teams to win the field position battle. Tebow has been aided more by his teammates in this streak than he's aided them. What he's done is not lose games, turning the ball over just four times in his eight starts. He's also been able to run the ball effectively when need be and complete a pass here or there, in large part due to the threat of the run.
I've got nothing against Tebow as a person. I'm an agnostic, but I could care less what the guy believes. He has a right to believe as he does and be as outspoken as he is. He does good things off the field. That's all fine. However, I'm getting a little tired of this guy, after 8 starts this season, being compared to league-MVP Aaron Rodgers and Broncos-legend John Elway. The thing is, Rodgers has been extraordinary for about two seasons now and Elway is one of the all-time greats. Rodgers seems to be doing anything but slowing down and will likely go on to have a great career, potentially Hall-of-Fame worthy, alongside Elway. That takes long-term success. Tebow isn't even close to achieving that. Would Rodgers or Elway be this heralded if they led their team to such few points on a regular basis? I don't think so. It's because of how Tebow plays, which is unorthodox, and how he's come back in the 4th quarter after such dreadful starts. At this point in his career, Tebow is no Rodgers and is no Elway. A common trend with quarterbacks like Tebow, whom can run with the ball and seem to have a greater ability to move the ball with their legs than arm, is that there success is short-term. Their shtick will eventually be figured out by coaches around the league and their defenses will make the necessary adjustments to stop Tebow. Tebow then has to go outside of his comfort zone, make the proper adjustments and expand his game where he can again keep defenses off-balance. Tebow may be a big name right now in the league. He may be selling a lot of jerseys. He may be giving Broncos fans some hope. However, unless the guy makes some significant changes to his game, the success we've witnessed this year will not last very long. He seems like a decent person and has an enormous amount of heart and dedication. In the end, though, that won't be enough to defeat NFL defenses.
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