While I feel it's too early to completely write off a young quarterback like Tim Tebow, it seems as if I've been one of the only people not completely convinced that the Denver Broncos' starting quarterback was the main reason for the Broncos recent winning ways and that he's going to be a long-term success in the NFL. From the start, I've said that the defense's improved play, the strong running game, big plays by the special teams and the lack of turning the ball over were the main reasons for the Broncos recent surge. Tebow die-hards, along with a growing number of "respected" football analysts began singing the quarterback's praises and for any naysayer whom was critical of the quarterback, they'd just point to his record. For the second consecutive week, Tebow and the Broncos lost and are now in a fight for survival in the AFC West.
Let's get something straight here - going into the game, Buffalo had lost 7 straight. They were 5-2 at one point, but with a 30-23 loss to Miami, fell to 5-9. In these 7 games, the Bills allowed a total of 224 points or an average of 32.0. Even after Saturday's win over the Broncos, Buffalo is still ranked 15th in pass defense and 28th in rush defense. The Broncos took the leading rush offense into this game only to come away with 133 yards on 35 attempts (3.8 avg). They only mustered 285 total yards, adding 133 through the air (5.2 p/att).
For the game, Tebow was 13 for 29 (44.8%) for 185 yards (6.4 p/att), 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions for a rating of 37.9. He also ran the ball 10 times for 34 yards (3.4 avg), a touchdown, but also fumbling it twice, losing one of them. Arguably the biggest reason why Tebow was somewhat effective earlier this season was a lack of turnovers. He now has 9 in 10 games, 8 of those coming in his last 4 starts. He had only turned the ball over once in his previous six.
The biggest difference between the Tebow-led Broncos in their wins and losses has been the defense. The team is 7-3 with Tebow behind center. In their three losses, the Broncos have scored a combined 47 points or an average of 15.7. In their seven wins, they scored a combined 154 points or an average of 22.0. In five of these seven wins (71.4%), the Broncos scored an average of 16.2 points a game. So, the average difference in point output between five of their wins and all three of their losses with Tebow was only 0.5 points a game. In other words, excluding two games, the Broncos offense was very consistent, scoring a little over two touchdowns on average. But, let's look at the defense. In their 7 wins under Tebow, Denver allowed a total of 117 points or an average of 16.7 per game. If not for Minnesota racking up 32 points, the Broncos averaged to give up just 14.2 points a contest. Those are very solid numbers posted by the defense. In the three losses, however, the Broncos allowed a combined 126 points or an average of 42.0 per contest. In their three losses, the Broncos allowed 9 more points than they did in their 7 wins. That's an incredible difference, an average difference of 25.3 points. Like I've been saying, it's the defense which has been the biggest factor in the Broncos either winning or losing on a given week.
For the season now, Tebow has completed 120 out of 249 passes (48.2%) for 1,669 yards (6.7 avg.), 12 touchdowns, 5 picks and a quarterback rating of 77.9. He's completed 50% or more of his passes in 4 of 10 starts (40.0%) and over 50% of his passes in 2 of 10 starts (20.0%). He's run the ball 159 times for 644 yards (5.6 avg.), 6 touchdowns and 5 fumbles. Passing wise, he's ranked dead last (34th) in completion percentage, 25th in yards per attempt, already 12th in most sacks (31), 24th in quarterback rating (0.8 behind Kyle Orton) and dead last in passing yards per game (34th). As I've said all along, these are not successful-NFL-quarterback types of numbers and he will need to drastically improve in those areas if he wants to be a long-term success at quarterback in this league.
The Broncos are still in the driver's seat as far as the AFC West goes. If they beat the Kansas City Chiefs (whom they beat 17-10 in week 10) at home on Sunday, they will go to the playoffs with the 4 seed, likely playing the Pittsburgh Steelers in the first round. If they lose and Oakland defeats San Diego Sunday, the Raiders will likely face the Steelers in the first round of the playoffs.
Let's get something straight here - going into the game, Buffalo had lost 7 straight. They were 5-2 at one point, but with a 30-23 loss to Miami, fell to 5-9. In these 7 games, the Bills allowed a total of 224 points or an average of 32.0. Even after Saturday's win over the Broncos, Buffalo is still ranked 15th in pass defense and 28th in rush defense. The Broncos took the leading rush offense into this game only to come away with 133 yards on 35 attempts (3.8 avg). They only mustered 285 total yards, adding 133 through the air (5.2 p/att).
For the game, Tebow was 13 for 29 (44.8%) for 185 yards (6.4 p/att), 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions for a rating of 37.9. He also ran the ball 10 times for 34 yards (3.4 avg), a touchdown, but also fumbling it twice, losing one of them. Arguably the biggest reason why Tebow was somewhat effective earlier this season was a lack of turnovers. He now has 9 in 10 games, 8 of those coming in his last 4 starts. He had only turned the ball over once in his previous six.
The biggest difference between the Tebow-led Broncos in their wins and losses has been the defense. The team is 7-3 with Tebow behind center. In their three losses, the Broncos have scored a combined 47 points or an average of 15.7. In their seven wins, they scored a combined 154 points or an average of 22.0. In five of these seven wins (71.4%), the Broncos scored an average of 16.2 points a game. So, the average difference in point output between five of their wins and all three of their losses with Tebow was only 0.5 points a game. In other words, excluding two games, the Broncos offense was very consistent, scoring a little over two touchdowns on average. But, let's look at the defense. In their 7 wins under Tebow, Denver allowed a total of 117 points or an average of 16.7 per game. If not for Minnesota racking up 32 points, the Broncos averaged to give up just 14.2 points a contest. Those are very solid numbers posted by the defense. In the three losses, however, the Broncos allowed a combined 126 points or an average of 42.0 per contest. In their three losses, the Broncos allowed 9 more points than they did in their 7 wins. That's an incredible difference, an average difference of 25.3 points. Like I've been saying, it's the defense which has been the biggest factor in the Broncos either winning or losing on a given week.
For the season now, Tebow has completed 120 out of 249 passes (48.2%) for 1,669 yards (6.7 avg.), 12 touchdowns, 5 picks and a quarterback rating of 77.9. He's completed 50% or more of his passes in 4 of 10 starts (40.0%) and over 50% of his passes in 2 of 10 starts (20.0%). He's run the ball 159 times for 644 yards (5.6 avg.), 6 touchdowns and 5 fumbles. Passing wise, he's ranked dead last (34th) in completion percentage, 25th in yards per attempt, already 12th in most sacks (31), 24th in quarterback rating (0.8 behind Kyle Orton) and dead last in passing yards per game (34th). As I've said all along, these are not successful-NFL-quarterback types of numbers and he will need to drastically improve in those areas if he wants to be a long-term success at quarterback in this league.
The Broncos are still in the driver's seat as far as the AFC West goes. If they beat the Kansas City Chiefs (whom they beat 17-10 in week 10) at home on Sunday, they will go to the playoffs with the 4 seed, likely playing the Pittsburgh Steelers in the first round. If they lose and Oakland defeats San Diego Sunday, the Raiders will likely face the Steelers in the first round of the playoffs.
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