Novelist and screenwriter Roger L. Simon just recently published an article I felt the need to rebut. It was published by the far right-wing media outlet PJ Media and entitled, "Trump Will Win Bigly in 2020." Yes, it only gets better from there...
Simon starts his piece with this:
"I have bad news for the mainstream media and the Democrats. Time to stock up on absinthe or hightail it down to the medical marijuana store -- Donald Trump is going to be president for eight years. Not only that, he will win reelection much more comfortably, easily winning the popular vote as well as the electoral college."
We are just 3 months into Donald Trump's first term in the Oval Office; that's 1/16 of the 4 years he's been elected to serve as President of the United States. No matter which side of the fence one may be positioned, it'd be utterly ridiculous to predict an outright victory or defeat for Donald Trump in the 2020 election. First off, we still have 15/16 of his first term to go. Secondly, we haven't the slightest idea who his Democratic opponent will be or what his/her approval numbers are. Lastly, Donald Trump just recently set a record for having the lowest approval numbers at this point in his presidency. The average for presidents at the 3-month mark is 61%. Donald Trump currently stands at 41%, a full 14% behind the next lowest on the list, which happens to be Bill Clinton at 55%. So while it'd be equally ridiculous for Democrats to arrogantly claim they have the 2020 election in the bag at this point, if either party can make such an argument, it's the Democrats. So, I have no idea what Mr. Simon is smoking, but I have a hunch it's much stronger than medical marijuana. He then continued with this:
"I'm not saying this because I am in the slightest bit psychic. I always lose in Vegas -- and don't even ask about the track. I'm also not saying it because Trump just had a good week, getting his Supreme Court pick through and taking it to Assad and ISIS, earning him a slight bump in the polls. (They don't mean anything now anyway.)"
He's certainly making a strong case for his asinine prediction, isn't he? "Look, I'm not psychic, I always lose when I gamble, but you gotta trust me this time, believe me!" Okay, carry on...
"I am saying it for the same reason I predicted Trump would win his first term back in August 2015 -- simple observation of the scene. I should add observation from afar because I have the advantage of watching from Los Angeles. The view is too distorted in the nation's capital where, at least it seems from here, no one can stand each other. (That's okay. People in Hollywood are exactly the same.)"
Observation from afar? Do these observations include Trump University lawsuits? Sexual assault/harassment lawsuits? FBI investigations? The lowest approval rating at this point in U.S. history? A slow-down in job growth? A large enthusiasm gap between the two parties, heavily in favor of the Democrats? I have a feeling Mr. Simon's label of "observations from afar" is accurate, for they appear to be afar from reality. Moving on...
"Yes, you can say I'm being stupid and rash to make such an early prediction, but that's just what I was accused of in 2015. So go ahead and call me anything you want. Make my day -- November 3, 2020.
Okay, but why?"
You are being ridiculously stupid. We are 6.25% into Donald Trump's first term. Simon's prediction would be similar to me predicting the Cleveland Browns are going to win the Super Bowl after starting the season 1-0. Yes, ridiculously stupid... Okay, enlighten me, Mr. Simon. Why do you feel this way?
"To begin with, the media (the main opposition party) has completely blown it in less than the allotted one hundred days. By attacking Trump every which way at once, calling him a racist, sexist, homophobe, isolationist and warmonger - yes, the last two are completely contradictory, but that doesn't stop the geniuses in our Fourth Estate -- they have literally turned into the journalistic version of the boy who cried wolf. No one believes them anymore, assuming they ever did in the first place."
Ah, yes, the media - Trump's favorite scapegoat (along with Obama). While the mainstream media is far from perfect, let's be honest here, Donald Trump would not be president if not for the mainstream media's assistance. Many far-right conservatives like to claim that the mainstream media is liberally-biased, but while they're accurate in saying the mainstream media is biased, it's not toward a liberal ideology; it's toward higher ratings. Whether liberals such as myself would like to admit it or not, for whatever reason, where Donald Trump goes, cameras and intrigue follow. To even those who may despise him, he's often times like a car crash, where they can't stand what they see, but can't look away either. The mainstream media followed Donald Trump every step of the way throughout his campaign, from its outset where half the country thought he was a complete joke and in it just for publicity, to his election. If anything, the mainstream media failed to vet Donald Trump at the same rate as Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, for they tended to grade him on a curve due to his lack of political and military experience. If they had not almost obsessively stalked him throughout his campaign and vetted him just as thoroughly as they vetted Secretary Clinton, we could very well have a different president today. So, I'm sorry, but if anything, Donald Trump should be thanking the mainstream media. They're not his main opposition party. Given the fact the president is Mr. Contradiction, the man's main opposition party is his own mouth! Anything else you'd like to add, Mr. Simon?
"And it's only going to get worse because the Trump-Russia scandal is an obvious dud while the Obama-Trump surveillance contretemps could have legs, as we say hereabouts."
I see it's opposite day in the world of Roger L. Simon. Allow me to fix his typos: "And it's only going to get worse because Obama-Trump surveillance contretemps is an obvious dud while the Trump-Russia scandal could have legs, as we say hereabouts." You're welcome. Are you done yet? Please?
"The situation is even more dire for the Democratic Party itself. Their geriatric leaders have the charisma of pitched frogs with no successors in sight. More ominously, liberal-progressivism is completely out of ideas. There's no there there except hating everything Trump does -- even eating steaks well done -- and marching around in pussy hats demanding equal rights when many more women are attending college now law school than men. (Someone should write a Carylye-style history of the feminist movement from Gloria Steinem to Linda Sarsour.)"
This has to be one of the most ridiculously stupid paragraphs I've read in some time. Mr. Simon is absolutely right that more women are now attending college than men, but that doesn't detract from the fact they're getting paid less on average than their male counterparts. That doesn't negate the fact men are trying to strip women of their reproductive rights. That doesn't take away from the fact that some men, like President Donald Trump, think it's perfectly acceptable to see women as nothing more than objects and sexually assault them by "grabbing them by the pussy." Roger L. Simon may not be a sexist himself, but he's obviously quite ignorant on what constitutes sexism and why women fight against it. As for the screenwriter's comments regarding the Democratic Party, let's look back at the past four presidents, shall we? On the Democratic side, we have Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, arguably two of the best orators to ever hold the Oval Office. On the Republican side, we have George W. Bush and Donald Trump, two men who know charisma like mimes know motivational speeches. Next...
"Meanwhile, Trump holds the cards. He's a pragmatic center-right businessman in what is still an essentially pragmatic center-right nation. For all his fits and starts, he's making many Americans feel good about their country again. We're not leading from behind anymore. We're back in front. We're the superpower and we're acting for good. China -- the second power in the world -- is already acknowledging that."
Let's be blunt about this. Donald Trump is making many rich, straight, old, white, "Christian" men feel good about their country again. Once again, only about 2 in 5 people approve of the job he's doing, so many more Americans are feeling worse about their country since Trump took over than better. This nation was founded upon the concept of immigration, yet we're to feel good about building a wall along our southern border? Pilgrims fled their native lands due to religious persecution, only to settle here and celebrate freedom of religion, yet we're to feel good about barring individuals from Muslim-dominated countries? We're to feel good about an uptick in hate crimes against minorities, especially those of Middle Eastern descent? We're to feel good about bombing foreign lands without any long-term plans? We're to feel good about passing a healthcare reform bill which is projected to strip 20+ million of their heath insurance? We're to feel good about our kids growing up with a president who regularly showcases signs of greed, narcissism, racism, xenophobia, and sexism? I'm sorry, but no, and at this current juncture, a majority of the people agree with me. Anything else you'd like to share, Mr. Simon?
"People say Trump flip-flops, but who doesn't except rigid ideologues? Flip-flopping can be construed as a good thing, an adaptability to ever-changing situations. Most of us do that, whether we admit it or not."
Okay, for the first time in his ramblings, I partially agree with Mr. Simon here. However, while I feel it's perfectly normal and acceptable for one's views to evolve when provided new information, the problem with Donald Trump's "evolution" is the fact he had no knowledge on the subjects to begin with, and perhaps it's just me, but it kind of frightens me to be led by a president who is so ignorant on a vast array of important issues. Okay, just four paragraphs of torture to go. We can get through this!
"Nevertheless, Trump has a core. He moves forward with his basics even as he revises them. He's already done a substantial amount of deregulating with more to come. He may not ever build a complete border wall, but illegal immigration is already down substantially just because existing laws are being enforced for once. Oil pipelines are opening. Trade deals are being renegotiated. People are going back to work and consumer confidence is up. And does anyone doubt he'll get some form of tax reform done eventually? I don't."
Denial apparently isn't just a river in Egypt. When Barack Obama stepped into office on January 20th of 2009, he was handed a recession, the worst such recession since the Great Depression. Many Republicans ignorantly blame Obama for the recession, even though he wasn't in the Oval Office at its inception. Under his leadership, however, the unemployment rate was cut almost in half, consumer confidence grew at an exponential rate, etc. In other words, while George W. Bush handed Barack Obama a recession, Barack Obama handed Donald Trump a stable and improving economy. President Trump has as much to do with the job growth thus far in 2017 as Prius's have in drag-racing competitions.
"Healthcare will remain difficult, because it has no good solution. All systems are imperfect. but there is an area in which I predict he will make tremendous inroads that will change our political landscape -- our minority communities. Trump has promised to help African-Americans and he will do it. (No wonder Maxine Waters is apoplectic.) No one else has done this from either party for decades, but Trump will. And he will doubtless bring in the private sector that will make his work all the more successful. It won't just be the same failed government programs we have seen for the last fifty years."
I'll believe it when I see it, and given Trump's long history of lies and failed promises, I can't say I'm all too optimistic about the matter.
"If this makes even ten percent more of the black community swing his way, that's the end of identity politics and the end of the Democratic Party as we know it. It's not just Maxine who should be worried and calling for Trump's impeachment. With identity politics even partially vanquished, 2020 will be the proverbial walk in the park for Republicans."
Over the past five presidential elections, the Republican candidates have averaged a mere 7.4% of the black vote. Only one time did a GOP candidate eclipse 10% with that demographic, as George W. Bush earned 11% of the black vote in the 2004 election against Democratic challenger John Kerry, who came away with 88% of the vote. So even though it's been incredibly difficult for the Republican Party to earn 10% of the African-American vote on election day, Roger L. Simon is suggesting the party's support among that demographic will increase by 10% over the next 3+ years. I'm sorry, but that's less likely than it is for Donald Trump to tell the truth (Politifact currently has him at 16%).
"Here's my last optimistic prediction: Trump's recent foreign policy successes will generate domestic opportunities. Success breeds success. Look for the Republican log jams on healthcare and taxes to break soon. No, my eyesight isn't 2020, but I can see that year from here without my glasses."
Successes? The failed raid in Yemen? The 59 bombs in Syria which didn't do much damage? The bombing in Afghanistan which seemed to be more symbolic than anything else? Talk of reverting the Iran agreement, giving them nuclear capabilities? You know, delusions of success doesn't necessarily breed success. Just sayin'. One thing's for certain, though, Roger L. Simon needs some thicker glasses...
https://pjmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2017/04/13/trump-will-win-bigly-in-2020/
Simon starts his piece with this:
"I have bad news for the mainstream media and the Democrats. Time to stock up on absinthe or hightail it down to the medical marijuana store -- Donald Trump is going to be president for eight years. Not only that, he will win reelection much more comfortably, easily winning the popular vote as well as the electoral college."
We are just 3 months into Donald Trump's first term in the Oval Office; that's 1/16 of the 4 years he's been elected to serve as President of the United States. No matter which side of the fence one may be positioned, it'd be utterly ridiculous to predict an outright victory or defeat for Donald Trump in the 2020 election. First off, we still have 15/16 of his first term to go. Secondly, we haven't the slightest idea who his Democratic opponent will be or what his/her approval numbers are. Lastly, Donald Trump just recently set a record for having the lowest approval numbers at this point in his presidency. The average for presidents at the 3-month mark is 61%. Donald Trump currently stands at 41%, a full 14% behind the next lowest on the list, which happens to be Bill Clinton at 55%. So while it'd be equally ridiculous for Democrats to arrogantly claim they have the 2020 election in the bag at this point, if either party can make such an argument, it's the Democrats. So, I have no idea what Mr. Simon is smoking, but I have a hunch it's much stronger than medical marijuana. He then continued with this:
"I'm not saying this because I am in the slightest bit psychic. I always lose in Vegas -- and don't even ask about the track. I'm also not saying it because Trump just had a good week, getting his Supreme Court pick through and taking it to Assad and ISIS, earning him a slight bump in the polls. (They don't mean anything now anyway.)"
He's certainly making a strong case for his asinine prediction, isn't he? "Look, I'm not psychic, I always lose when I gamble, but you gotta trust me this time, believe me!" Okay, carry on...
"I am saying it for the same reason I predicted Trump would win his first term back in August 2015 -- simple observation of the scene. I should add observation from afar because I have the advantage of watching from Los Angeles. The view is too distorted in the nation's capital where, at least it seems from here, no one can stand each other. (That's okay. People in Hollywood are exactly the same.)"
Observation from afar? Do these observations include Trump University lawsuits? Sexual assault/harassment lawsuits? FBI investigations? The lowest approval rating at this point in U.S. history? A slow-down in job growth? A large enthusiasm gap between the two parties, heavily in favor of the Democrats? I have a feeling Mr. Simon's label of "observations from afar" is accurate, for they appear to be afar from reality. Moving on...
"Yes, you can say I'm being stupid and rash to make such an early prediction, but that's just what I was accused of in 2015. So go ahead and call me anything you want. Make my day -- November 3, 2020.
Okay, but why?"
You are being ridiculously stupid. We are 6.25% into Donald Trump's first term. Simon's prediction would be similar to me predicting the Cleveland Browns are going to win the Super Bowl after starting the season 1-0. Yes, ridiculously stupid... Okay, enlighten me, Mr. Simon. Why do you feel this way?
"To begin with, the media (the main opposition party) has completely blown it in less than the allotted one hundred days. By attacking Trump every which way at once, calling him a racist, sexist, homophobe, isolationist and warmonger - yes, the last two are completely contradictory, but that doesn't stop the geniuses in our Fourth Estate -- they have literally turned into the journalistic version of the boy who cried wolf. No one believes them anymore, assuming they ever did in the first place."
Ah, yes, the media - Trump's favorite scapegoat (along with Obama). While the mainstream media is far from perfect, let's be honest here, Donald Trump would not be president if not for the mainstream media's assistance. Many far-right conservatives like to claim that the mainstream media is liberally-biased, but while they're accurate in saying the mainstream media is biased, it's not toward a liberal ideology; it's toward higher ratings. Whether liberals such as myself would like to admit it or not, for whatever reason, where Donald Trump goes, cameras and intrigue follow. To even those who may despise him, he's often times like a car crash, where they can't stand what they see, but can't look away either. The mainstream media followed Donald Trump every step of the way throughout his campaign, from its outset where half the country thought he was a complete joke and in it just for publicity, to his election. If anything, the mainstream media failed to vet Donald Trump at the same rate as Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, for they tended to grade him on a curve due to his lack of political and military experience. If they had not almost obsessively stalked him throughout his campaign and vetted him just as thoroughly as they vetted Secretary Clinton, we could very well have a different president today. So, I'm sorry, but if anything, Donald Trump should be thanking the mainstream media. They're not his main opposition party. Given the fact the president is Mr. Contradiction, the man's main opposition party is his own mouth! Anything else you'd like to add, Mr. Simon?
"And it's only going to get worse because the Trump-Russia scandal is an obvious dud while the Obama-Trump surveillance contretemps could have legs, as we say hereabouts."
I see it's opposite day in the world of Roger L. Simon. Allow me to fix his typos: "And it's only going to get worse because Obama-Trump surveillance contretemps is an obvious dud while the Trump-Russia scandal could have legs, as we say hereabouts." You're welcome. Are you done yet? Please?
"The situation is even more dire for the Democratic Party itself. Their geriatric leaders have the charisma of pitched frogs with no successors in sight. More ominously, liberal-progressivism is completely out of ideas. There's no there there except hating everything Trump does -- even eating steaks well done -- and marching around in pussy hats demanding equal rights when many more women are attending college now law school than men. (Someone should write a Carylye-style history of the feminist movement from Gloria Steinem to Linda Sarsour.)"
This has to be one of the most ridiculously stupid paragraphs I've read in some time. Mr. Simon is absolutely right that more women are now attending college than men, but that doesn't detract from the fact they're getting paid less on average than their male counterparts. That doesn't negate the fact men are trying to strip women of their reproductive rights. That doesn't take away from the fact that some men, like President Donald Trump, think it's perfectly acceptable to see women as nothing more than objects and sexually assault them by "grabbing them by the pussy." Roger L. Simon may not be a sexist himself, but he's obviously quite ignorant on what constitutes sexism and why women fight against it. As for the screenwriter's comments regarding the Democratic Party, let's look back at the past four presidents, shall we? On the Democratic side, we have Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, arguably two of the best orators to ever hold the Oval Office. On the Republican side, we have George W. Bush and Donald Trump, two men who know charisma like mimes know motivational speeches. Next...
"Meanwhile, Trump holds the cards. He's a pragmatic center-right businessman in what is still an essentially pragmatic center-right nation. For all his fits and starts, he's making many Americans feel good about their country again. We're not leading from behind anymore. We're back in front. We're the superpower and we're acting for good. China -- the second power in the world -- is already acknowledging that."
Let's be blunt about this. Donald Trump is making many rich, straight, old, white, "Christian" men feel good about their country again. Once again, only about 2 in 5 people approve of the job he's doing, so many more Americans are feeling worse about their country since Trump took over than better. This nation was founded upon the concept of immigration, yet we're to feel good about building a wall along our southern border? Pilgrims fled their native lands due to religious persecution, only to settle here and celebrate freedom of religion, yet we're to feel good about barring individuals from Muslim-dominated countries? We're to feel good about an uptick in hate crimes against minorities, especially those of Middle Eastern descent? We're to feel good about bombing foreign lands without any long-term plans? We're to feel good about passing a healthcare reform bill which is projected to strip 20+ million of their heath insurance? We're to feel good about our kids growing up with a president who regularly showcases signs of greed, narcissism, racism, xenophobia, and sexism? I'm sorry, but no, and at this current juncture, a majority of the people agree with me. Anything else you'd like to share, Mr. Simon?
"People say Trump flip-flops, but who doesn't except rigid ideologues? Flip-flopping can be construed as a good thing, an adaptability to ever-changing situations. Most of us do that, whether we admit it or not."
Okay, for the first time in his ramblings, I partially agree with Mr. Simon here. However, while I feel it's perfectly normal and acceptable for one's views to evolve when provided new information, the problem with Donald Trump's "evolution" is the fact he had no knowledge on the subjects to begin with, and perhaps it's just me, but it kind of frightens me to be led by a president who is so ignorant on a vast array of important issues. Okay, just four paragraphs of torture to go. We can get through this!
"Nevertheless, Trump has a core. He moves forward with his basics even as he revises them. He's already done a substantial amount of deregulating with more to come. He may not ever build a complete border wall, but illegal immigration is already down substantially just because existing laws are being enforced for once. Oil pipelines are opening. Trade deals are being renegotiated. People are going back to work and consumer confidence is up. And does anyone doubt he'll get some form of tax reform done eventually? I don't."
Denial apparently isn't just a river in Egypt. When Barack Obama stepped into office on January 20th of 2009, he was handed a recession, the worst such recession since the Great Depression. Many Republicans ignorantly blame Obama for the recession, even though he wasn't in the Oval Office at its inception. Under his leadership, however, the unemployment rate was cut almost in half, consumer confidence grew at an exponential rate, etc. In other words, while George W. Bush handed Barack Obama a recession, Barack Obama handed Donald Trump a stable and improving economy. President Trump has as much to do with the job growth thus far in 2017 as Prius's have in drag-racing competitions.
"Healthcare will remain difficult, because it has no good solution. All systems are imperfect. but there is an area in which I predict he will make tremendous inroads that will change our political landscape -- our minority communities. Trump has promised to help African-Americans and he will do it. (No wonder Maxine Waters is apoplectic.) No one else has done this from either party for decades, but Trump will. And he will doubtless bring in the private sector that will make his work all the more successful. It won't just be the same failed government programs we have seen for the last fifty years."
I'll believe it when I see it, and given Trump's long history of lies and failed promises, I can't say I'm all too optimistic about the matter.
"If this makes even ten percent more of the black community swing his way, that's the end of identity politics and the end of the Democratic Party as we know it. It's not just Maxine who should be worried and calling for Trump's impeachment. With identity politics even partially vanquished, 2020 will be the proverbial walk in the park for Republicans."
Over the past five presidential elections, the Republican candidates have averaged a mere 7.4% of the black vote. Only one time did a GOP candidate eclipse 10% with that demographic, as George W. Bush earned 11% of the black vote in the 2004 election against Democratic challenger John Kerry, who came away with 88% of the vote. So even though it's been incredibly difficult for the Republican Party to earn 10% of the African-American vote on election day, Roger L. Simon is suggesting the party's support among that demographic will increase by 10% over the next 3+ years. I'm sorry, but that's less likely than it is for Donald Trump to tell the truth (Politifact currently has him at 16%).
"Here's my last optimistic prediction: Trump's recent foreign policy successes will generate domestic opportunities. Success breeds success. Look for the Republican log jams on healthcare and taxes to break soon. No, my eyesight isn't 2020, but I can see that year from here without my glasses."
Successes? The failed raid in Yemen? The 59 bombs in Syria which didn't do much damage? The bombing in Afghanistan which seemed to be more symbolic than anything else? Talk of reverting the Iran agreement, giving them nuclear capabilities? You know, delusions of success doesn't necessarily breed success. Just sayin'. One thing's for certain, though, Roger L. Simon needs some thicker glasses...
https://pjmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2017/04/13/trump-will-win-bigly-in-2020/
Comments
Post a Comment