As election day drew nearer, I became more nervous. Let's face it, no matter how favorable the odds are for the Democratic Party, they seem to screw things up more times than not. Just look at 2016. Hillary Clinton was a sure-fire winner and, well, you know what happened. Granted, it appears the apparent winner had a few helping hands at his disposal, but let's wait for Mueller to conclude his investigation before making any presumptions. In any case, while the oddsmakers gave little chance for the Democrats to take control of the Senate, they gave the Dems roughly a 2 in 3 chance of attaining control of the House. This number decreased to approximately 60% when the numbers started coming in election night. With some key races in Ohio, Florida, and Georgia not appearing all too favorable for the Democratic candidates, I admit to being tempted to grab a bottle of whiskey and take a couple swigs. Fortunately for myself and anyone who may have been around me to witness my inevitable belligerence, I didn't succumb to such a temptation, largely due to the fact that, after the first hour or so, the Democratic Party's odds of garnering control of the House appeared to rise. Having said that, I wasn't completely at ease until NBC declared that the Democratic Party had officially retaken control of the House. I should probably rephrase that. With Donald Trump in the White House, I'll never be fully at ease. However, with the Democratic Party in control of one chamber of Congress, I'm much more at ease than I would otherwise be.
When all is said and done, the Democrats will net 39 or 40 House seats (looking like 40 might be the final count); Republicans will have picked up 2 seats in the Senate; and Democrats will have a +7 net in governorships. Not only that, but the Democratic Party will have gained at least 332 seats in state legislatures.
Breaking this down further, here's how the numbers look:
Midterms
House
Before: Republicans +42
After: Democrats +35 (for now)
Senate
Before: Republicans +2
After: Republicans: +6
Governor
Before: Republicans +17
After: Republicans +4
State Legislature Seats
Before: Republicans +1,069
After: Republicans +402
Looking at just the vote totals, while Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton defeated Republican candidate Donald Trump by 2.9 million votes in the 2016 election, Democratic candidates for Congress defeated Republican candidates for Congress by 8.9 million in this year's midterms. That's the largest margin of victory by either party. The previous record was set in 1974, not long after then President Nixon resigned over the Watergate scandal. The margin and record at that time was an 8.7 million vote difference.
Interestingly, both parties came out in the days following the midterm elections, trying to set the narrative by declaring that their party was the big winner. While that's a nice try by the GOP, I'm afraid their argument doesn't hold much water. As a matter of fact, not only is their glass not half-full; there isn't even a glass present in which to place said water. Their big talking point has been, "Well, just look at the Senate. We have more seats than we did previously. No blue wave!" Prior to this year's election, the Republican Party had control of the Oval Office, the House, and the Senate. Not only that, but they had a +17 advantage in governorships and a 1,069-seat advantage in state legislatures. The Senate map didn't look good for Democrats from the start. They had to defend ten states Trump won in the 2016 presidential election, while Republicans had far fewer such seats to defend. To their credit, said Democratic candidates won 6 of those 10 races, and the party flipped two other seats to limit their losses to just 2 seats overall. No matter what Republican leaders may want to say, the Senate could have looked a lot worse for the Democratic Party following these midterms (47-53). That right there was the worst news for the Democratic Party on election day - that things didn't go as poorly as they could have in the Senate. That was the worst news. Let that sink in for a second. In the other chamber of Congress, Democrats netted at least 39 seats to take control of the House. They cut the GOP lead in governorships down from 17 to 4. That's an incredible 76.5% decrease. Lastly, they decreased the GOP lead in state legislature seats from 1,069 to 402 - a drop of 62.4%. The Democratic Party went from no control at the federal level to some control. They went from little control at the state level to greater control. Smashing historic records in the process, they went from a party of seeming hopelessness to one of hope. If that doesn't constitute a blue wave, I don't know what does.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/28/politics/blue-wave-2018/index.html
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/democrats-smash-watergate-record-house-popular-vote-midterms-n940116
When all is said and done, the Democrats will net 39 or 40 House seats (looking like 40 might be the final count); Republicans will have picked up 2 seats in the Senate; and Democrats will have a +7 net in governorships. Not only that, but the Democratic Party will have gained at least 332 seats in state legislatures.
Breaking this down further, here's how the numbers look:
Midterms
House
Before: Republicans +42
After: Democrats +35 (for now)
Senate
Before: Republicans +2
After: Republicans: +6
Governor
Before: Republicans +17
After: Republicans +4
State Legislature Seats
Before: Republicans +1,069
After: Republicans +402
Looking at just the vote totals, while Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton defeated Republican candidate Donald Trump by 2.9 million votes in the 2016 election, Democratic candidates for Congress defeated Republican candidates for Congress by 8.9 million in this year's midterms. That's the largest margin of victory by either party. The previous record was set in 1974, not long after then President Nixon resigned over the Watergate scandal. The margin and record at that time was an 8.7 million vote difference.
Interestingly, both parties came out in the days following the midterm elections, trying to set the narrative by declaring that their party was the big winner. While that's a nice try by the GOP, I'm afraid their argument doesn't hold much water. As a matter of fact, not only is their glass not half-full; there isn't even a glass present in which to place said water. Their big talking point has been, "Well, just look at the Senate. We have more seats than we did previously. No blue wave!" Prior to this year's election, the Republican Party had control of the Oval Office, the House, and the Senate. Not only that, but they had a +17 advantage in governorships and a 1,069-seat advantage in state legislatures. The Senate map didn't look good for Democrats from the start. They had to defend ten states Trump won in the 2016 presidential election, while Republicans had far fewer such seats to defend. To their credit, said Democratic candidates won 6 of those 10 races, and the party flipped two other seats to limit their losses to just 2 seats overall. No matter what Republican leaders may want to say, the Senate could have looked a lot worse for the Democratic Party following these midterms (47-53). That right there was the worst news for the Democratic Party on election day - that things didn't go as poorly as they could have in the Senate. That was the worst news. Let that sink in for a second. In the other chamber of Congress, Democrats netted at least 39 seats to take control of the House. They cut the GOP lead in governorships down from 17 to 4. That's an incredible 76.5% decrease. Lastly, they decreased the GOP lead in state legislature seats from 1,069 to 402 - a drop of 62.4%. The Democratic Party went from no control at the federal level to some control. They went from little control at the state level to greater control. Smashing historic records in the process, they went from a party of seeming hopelessness to one of hope. If that doesn't constitute a blue wave, I don't know what does.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/28/politics/blue-wave-2018/index.html
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/democrats-smash-watergate-record-house-popular-vote-midterms-n940116
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