I think I'm done trying to predict the Republican nominee for the upcoming presidential election. Mitt Romney has been the steadiest according to polls. However, there has seemingly been an anti-Romney candidate getting hot with the pollsters to see if there can be any long-term traction with that candidate. We had Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich again, with Ron Paul probably being the second steadiest candidate in terms of poll numbers, next to Romney.
Santorum won the Iowa Caucus, but has since faded into a distant 3rd, behind Romney and Gingrich. Romney won the New Hampshire Primary quite convincingly and it was said that if he won the South Carolina Primary, he'd likely be the Republican nominee. Newt Gingrich had other plans and beat Romney by 12%. Gingrich rode the hot streak nationally and in Florida, where the next primary is to be held. Romney went from a huge lead in the sunshine state to 5-10% deficit to make up between he and Gingrich. Then in the past couple days, that momentum has shifted again in favor of Romney. Like I said, I have no idea where this race is going to end up. I've said from the start, I think it will be Romney, but every time it seems as if he's going to run away with things, another candidate steps up in terms of their polling numbers.
I think the big potential X factor in this race is Rick Santorum. If he stays in the race for the long-run, I'd be hard-pressed to see anyone being able to compete with Romney, especially financially. However, if Santorum drops out of the race rather soon, I think the majority of his supporters will flock to Gingrich over Romney. The hard-core Evangelical base are pretty strong supporters of Santorum and Gingrich's philosophy, history and image coincide more with Santorum's than Romney. So, if Santorum flees from the scene before long, that should make things very interesting and may even give Gingrich an advantage in the long-run, which would be difficult for him to accomplish with Santorum still lurking over his shoulder in the polls.
So, that's how I'll call it...for now... If Santorum stays in the race for a little while longer, I'll pick Romney as the Republican nominee. However, if Santorum ends his campaign before long, I'll select Gingrich as the GOP candidate for president.
Santorum won the Iowa Caucus, but has since faded into a distant 3rd, behind Romney and Gingrich. Romney won the New Hampshire Primary quite convincingly and it was said that if he won the South Carolina Primary, he'd likely be the Republican nominee. Newt Gingrich had other plans and beat Romney by 12%. Gingrich rode the hot streak nationally and in Florida, where the next primary is to be held. Romney went from a huge lead in the sunshine state to 5-10% deficit to make up between he and Gingrich. Then in the past couple days, that momentum has shifted again in favor of Romney. Like I said, I have no idea where this race is going to end up. I've said from the start, I think it will be Romney, but every time it seems as if he's going to run away with things, another candidate steps up in terms of their polling numbers.
I think the big potential X factor in this race is Rick Santorum. If he stays in the race for the long-run, I'd be hard-pressed to see anyone being able to compete with Romney, especially financially. However, if Santorum drops out of the race rather soon, I think the majority of his supporters will flock to Gingrich over Romney. The hard-core Evangelical base are pretty strong supporters of Santorum and Gingrich's philosophy, history and image coincide more with Santorum's than Romney. So, if Santorum flees from the scene before long, that should make things very interesting and may even give Gingrich an advantage in the long-run, which would be difficult for him to accomplish with Santorum still lurking over his shoulder in the polls.
So, that's how I'll call it...for now... If Santorum stays in the race for a little while longer, I'll pick Romney as the Republican nominee. However, if Santorum ends his campaign before long, I'll select Gingrich as the GOP candidate for president.
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