While Detroit Tigers starter and former Cy Young award winner Justin Verlander has been throwing a bit better of late, the facts are in - he just hasn't been the same pitcher these past two seasons. From 2006 through 2012, outside of a hiccup in 2008 (11-17 and 4.84 ERA), Verlander posted a 113-46 record (.711), a 3.15 ERA, with 1,284 strikeouts and 378 walks in 1,341.1 IP (8.62 K/9, 2.54 BB/9, and 3.40 K/BB). Over the past two seasons, however, Verlander is just 23-21 (.523), has an ERA of 3.95, with 327 strikeouts and 127 walks in 369.0 IP (7.98 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, and 2.57 K/BB). He's also allowed 374 hits in 369 innings over these past two seasons (9.12 p/9), while he only allowed 7.67 hits per 9 innings from 2006 through 2012 (excluding 2008). So, over the past two years, he's allowed about an average of 11 runners on base per 9 innings. Let's compare the states side-by-side now:
Record
2006-2012 (excluding 2008): 113-46 (.711)
2013-2014: 23-21 (.523)
Difference: -.188
ERA
'06-'12: 3.15
'13-'14: 3.95
Difference: -0.80
Strikeouts
'06-'12: 8.62 p/9
'13-'14: 7.98 p/9
Difference: -0.64
Walks
'06-'12: 2.54 p/9
'13-'14: 3.10 p/9
Difference: +0.56
K : BB
'06-'12: 3.40
'13-'14: 2.57
Difference: -0.83
Hits
'06-'12: 7.67 p/9
'13-'14: 9.12 p/9
Difference: +1.45
At the end of the day, I think all of these declining numbers can be traced back to four things: 1) Arm surgery, 2) Too many innings pitched, 3) Not as much zip on his fastball, and 4) Not yet learning how to pitch without that extra zip on his fastball.
Due to all of this, if Verlander continues to struggle throughout the rest of the season, and if Joe Nathan continues to struggle as well, I think the Tigers may want to think about pulling the John Smoltz card and making Justin Verlander their closer. This would lighten the load for the veteran righty, which could help him add some velocity to his fastball. He's always had solid movement on his pitches. However, with the velocity on his fastball decreasing to such a grand extent, it's allowed hitters to be more patient (more walks), has allowed them to fight off more two-strike pitches (less strikeouts), has made them more confident on being able to connect when he decides to throw the heater (more hits), and has made his other pitches less terrifying and effective.
For those whom claim that the Tigers rotation would be hurt too much by this move, I strongly disagree with that argument. Justin Verlander is 10-9, with a 4.66 ERA. If we include David Price, whom the Tigers just acquired from Tampa Bay, the Tigers' four starters outside of Verlander (Price, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, and Rick Porcello) are a combined 45-22 (.672), have an ERA of 3.21, strikeout 8.41 per 9 innings, walk just 1.94 per 9 innings (4.34 K/BB), and allow 8.01 hits per 9 innings. Even if they added an average 5th starter to the rotation, they would still have one of the top 5 starting rotations in the majors.
Some of the similarities between Smoltz and Verlander are uncanny. Smoltz came into the league at 21 and only threw 64 innings for the Atlanta Braves that year. Verlander came into the league at 22 and only pitched 11.1 innings for the Tigers. Both players stayed with the same club for all but one year to this point (Smoltz's final year in baseball, which he split between Boston and St. Louis). Verlander's 11-17 hiccup season in 2008 came when he was 25-years-old. Smoltz had a similar 6-10 hiccup kind of year in 1994 when he was 27-years-old. When the Braves right-hander was 29, he had his best year as a starter, as he went 24-8, with a 2.94 ERA, and 275 strikeouts in 253.2 innings. Verlander's best year came in 2011 when he was 28-years-old, where he went 24-5, with a 2.40 ERA, and 250 strikeouts in 251.0 innings. After the 1999 season, when Smoltz was 32, is when he started experiencing some significant arm troubles, and started closing games toward the tail-end of 2001. He got off to a rough start in 2002, but closed very nicely, as he went on to save 55 games. His best year as a closer came in 2003, when he saved 45 games for the Braves, posted a 1.12 ERA, and struck out 73 in 64.1 innings. In his 3+ seasons as closer, John Smoltz saved 154 games, had an ERA of 2.33, struck out 300 (9.46 p/9), walked 55 (1.73 p/9, 5.45 K/BB), and allowed 235 hits (7.41 p/9) in 285.1 innings. Verlander's arm troubles started when the right-hander was/is 31-years-old (or perhaps at 30). John Smoltz and Justin Verlander were very similar pitchers in many regards. They had great fastballs, and while the movement on their other pitches was typically very solid, they were much more effective when their fastballs had extra zip on it. When Smoltz went down with arm troubles, he made the proper adjustments for both he and his team, and he became the team's closer. This gave his over-worked arm much needed rest (65-80 innings pitched is far different than 200-250), which allowed him to find his velocity again on his fastball, and for three full seasons, he was one of the very best, if not the best closer in all of baseball. If Verlander can't figure things out by the end of this season, he may want to think about doing something similar, and like Smoltz, I think he could excel as the Tigers closer - something they've lacked for a very long time.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smoltjo01.shtml
Record
2006-2012 (excluding 2008): 113-46 (.711)
2013-2014: 23-21 (.523)
Difference: -.188
ERA
'06-'12: 3.15
'13-'14: 3.95
Difference: -0.80
Strikeouts
'06-'12: 8.62 p/9
'13-'14: 7.98 p/9
Difference: -0.64
Walks
'06-'12: 2.54 p/9
'13-'14: 3.10 p/9
Difference: +0.56
K : BB
'06-'12: 3.40
'13-'14: 2.57
Difference: -0.83
Hits
'06-'12: 7.67 p/9
'13-'14: 9.12 p/9
Difference: +1.45
At the end of the day, I think all of these declining numbers can be traced back to four things: 1) Arm surgery, 2) Too many innings pitched, 3) Not as much zip on his fastball, and 4) Not yet learning how to pitch without that extra zip on his fastball.
Due to all of this, if Verlander continues to struggle throughout the rest of the season, and if Joe Nathan continues to struggle as well, I think the Tigers may want to think about pulling the John Smoltz card and making Justin Verlander their closer. This would lighten the load for the veteran righty, which could help him add some velocity to his fastball. He's always had solid movement on his pitches. However, with the velocity on his fastball decreasing to such a grand extent, it's allowed hitters to be more patient (more walks), has allowed them to fight off more two-strike pitches (less strikeouts), has made them more confident on being able to connect when he decides to throw the heater (more hits), and has made his other pitches less terrifying and effective.
For those whom claim that the Tigers rotation would be hurt too much by this move, I strongly disagree with that argument. Justin Verlander is 10-9, with a 4.66 ERA. If we include David Price, whom the Tigers just acquired from Tampa Bay, the Tigers' four starters outside of Verlander (Price, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, and Rick Porcello) are a combined 45-22 (.672), have an ERA of 3.21, strikeout 8.41 per 9 innings, walk just 1.94 per 9 innings (4.34 K/BB), and allow 8.01 hits per 9 innings. Even if they added an average 5th starter to the rotation, they would still have one of the top 5 starting rotations in the majors.
Some of the similarities between Smoltz and Verlander are uncanny. Smoltz came into the league at 21 and only threw 64 innings for the Atlanta Braves that year. Verlander came into the league at 22 and only pitched 11.1 innings for the Tigers. Both players stayed with the same club for all but one year to this point (Smoltz's final year in baseball, which he split between Boston and St. Louis). Verlander's 11-17 hiccup season in 2008 came when he was 25-years-old. Smoltz had a similar 6-10 hiccup kind of year in 1994 when he was 27-years-old. When the Braves right-hander was 29, he had his best year as a starter, as he went 24-8, with a 2.94 ERA, and 275 strikeouts in 253.2 innings. Verlander's best year came in 2011 when he was 28-years-old, where he went 24-5, with a 2.40 ERA, and 250 strikeouts in 251.0 innings. After the 1999 season, when Smoltz was 32, is when he started experiencing some significant arm troubles, and started closing games toward the tail-end of 2001. He got off to a rough start in 2002, but closed very nicely, as he went on to save 55 games. His best year as a closer came in 2003, when he saved 45 games for the Braves, posted a 1.12 ERA, and struck out 73 in 64.1 innings. In his 3+ seasons as closer, John Smoltz saved 154 games, had an ERA of 2.33, struck out 300 (9.46 p/9), walked 55 (1.73 p/9, 5.45 K/BB), and allowed 235 hits (7.41 p/9) in 285.1 innings. Verlander's arm troubles started when the right-hander was/is 31-years-old (or perhaps at 30). John Smoltz and Justin Verlander were very similar pitchers in many regards. They had great fastballs, and while the movement on their other pitches was typically very solid, they were much more effective when their fastballs had extra zip on it. When Smoltz went down with arm troubles, he made the proper adjustments for both he and his team, and he became the team's closer. This gave his over-worked arm much needed rest (65-80 innings pitched is far different than 200-250), which allowed him to find his velocity again on his fastball, and for three full seasons, he was one of the very best, if not the best closer in all of baseball. If Verlander can't figure things out by the end of this season, he may want to think about doing something similar, and like Smoltz, I think he could excel as the Tigers closer - something they've lacked for a very long time.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smoltjo01.shtml
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