Many talking heads and columnists have been speculating just how Mitt Romney's choice of running mate Paul Ryan will shake up the election. Of course, these articles were filled with more questions than answers and by the end of the "piece" (meant to be taken ambiguously), I thought to myself, "What was the point of that exactly?"
In my honest opinion, I don't see much of a shake-up at all and if anything, think that the Ryan pick could hinder Romney from an electoral college standpoint.
Let's look at the map, shall we? Keep in mind that it takes 270 electoral votes to win the election.
Here are the states Barack Obama will almost certainly win in November (the electoral votes for the state and then the cumulative total of electoral votes will be placed in parentheses):
1. Washington (12 - 12)
2. Oregon (7 - 19)
3. California (55 - 74)
4. Hawaii (4 - 78)
5. New Mexico (5 - 83)
6. Illinois (20 - 103)
7. Washington, D.C. (3 - 106)
8. Maine (4 - 110)
9. Vermont (3 - 113)
10. New York (29 - 142)
11. New Jersey (14 - 156)
12. Massachusetts (11 - 167)
13. Connecticut (7 - 174)
14. Rhode Island (4 - 178)
15. Delaware (3 - 181)
16. Maryland (10 - 191)
Now here are a list of states Obama will likely win, but they are not solid guarantees like the previous 16 (15 and D.C., I suppose):
17. Nevada (6 - 197)
18. Minnesota (10 - 207)
19. Michigan (16 - 223)
20. Wisconsin (10 - 233)
21. Pennsylvania (20 - 253)
22. New Hampshire (4 - 257)
So, given the 21 states (and D.C.) that I feel Obama will likely win, he'd need only 13 additional electoral votes to assure himself another 4 years as President of the United States.
What other states are likely in play for the president?
23. Iowa (6)
24. Colorado (9)
25. Ohio (18)
26. Virginia (13)
27. North Carolina (15)
28. Florida (29)
29. Missouri (10)
(with outside chances in the likes of: Montana (3), North Dakota (3), Indiana (11), Georgia (16), South Carolina (9) and Arizona (11))
The state I'm now looking at after the Ryan nomination? Florida. Mitt Romney had led in state polls for quite some time until recently, when Obama either caught him or went ahead. With Ryan now as his running mate, Romney may be in serious trouble in this state. Why? Ryan is none-too-popular with the Latino community due to his stance on immigration and he pretty much wants to do away with Medicare. What two demographics is the state of Florida most known for? Latino-Americans and the elderly. With Ryan on the ticket, I look for Obama to win Florida and the 29 electoral votes there, which would lift him to 286 such votes and another 4 years in office. He could then lose: Iowa, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri and the 71 electoral votes in those 6 states and still come out on top at night's end. Even if Ryan helped Romney win the states of Iowa (6), Ohio (18), Wisconsin (10) and Minnesota (10), Obama would still wind up with 276 electoral votes due to Florida and win his re-election bid. Why again did Romney select Ryan as his running mate?
http://www.270towin.com/
In my honest opinion, I don't see much of a shake-up at all and if anything, think that the Ryan pick could hinder Romney from an electoral college standpoint.
Let's look at the map, shall we? Keep in mind that it takes 270 electoral votes to win the election.
Here are the states Barack Obama will almost certainly win in November (the electoral votes for the state and then the cumulative total of electoral votes will be placed in parentheses):
1. Washington (12 - 12)
2. Oregon (7 - 19)
3. California (55 - 74)
4. Hawaii (4 - 78)
5. New Mexico (5 - 83)
6. Illinois (20 - 103)
7. Washington, D.C. (3 - 106)
8. Maine (4 - 110)
9. Vermont (3 - 113)
10. New York (29 - 142)
11. New Jersey (14 - 156)
12. Massachusetts (11 - 167)
13. Connecticut (7 - 174)
14. Rhode Island (4 - 178)
15. Delaware (3 - 181)
16. Maryland (10 - 191)
Now here are a list of states Obama will likely win, but they are not solid guarantees like the previous 16 (15 and D.C., I suppose):
17. Nevada (6 - 197)
18. Minnesota (10 - 207)
19. Michigan (16 - 223)
20. Wisconsin (10 - 233)
21. Pennsylvania (20 - 253)
22. New Hampshire (4 - 257)
So, given the 21 states (and D.C.) that I feel Obama will likely win, he'd need only 13 additional electoral votes to assure himself another 4 years as President of the United States.
What other states are likely in play for the president?
23. Iowa (6)
24. Colorado (9)
25. Ohio (18)
26. Virginia (13)
27. North Carolina (15)
28. Florida (29)
29. Missouri (10)
(with outside chances in the likes of: Montana (3), North Dakota (3), Indiana (11), Georgia (16), South Carolina (9) and Arizona (11))
The state I'm now looking at after the Ryan nomination? Florida. Mitt Romney had led in state polls for quite some time until recently, when Obama either caught him or went ahead. With Ryan now as his running mate, Romney may be in serious trouble in this state. Why? Ryan is none-too-popular with the Latino community due to his stance on immigration and he pretty much wants to do away with Medicare. What two demographics is the state of Florida most known for? Latino-Americans and the elderly. With Ryan on the ticket, I look for Obama to win Florida and the 29 electoral votes there, which would lift him to 286 such votes and another 4 years in office. He could then lose: Iowa, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri and the 71 electoral votes in those 6 states and still come out on top at night's end. Even if Ryan helped Romney win the states of Iowa (6), Ohio (18), Wisconsin (10) and Minnesota (10), Obama would still wind up with 276 electoral votes due to Florida and win his re-election bid. Why again did Romney select Ryan as his running mate?
http://www.270towin.com/
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