Thursday
Game: Indianapolis at Houston
Prediction: Houston - If I'm told Andrew Luck will be 100% healthy for this Thursday night game, I might change my mind. However, I'm thinking that's unlikely, and with the game on the road against a desperate 1-3 Texans team, not to mention a hungry Texans defense, led by J.J. Watt, I think I like Houston to win this one by 4.
Result: Indianapolis 27 Houston 20
Record: 0-1
Sunday
Game: Chicago at Kansas City
Prediction: Kansas City - With or without a healthy Jay Cutler at quarterback, I don't like the chances of 1-3 Chicago to win on the road at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City is better than their 1-3 record indicates, should be at worst 2-2 (after blowing a Thursday night game against Denver), and should have an easier time scoring touchdowns against the mediocre Bears defense than they did against Cincinnati this past Sunday. I'm taking the Chiefs at home by a touchdown.
Result: Chicago 18 Kansas City 17
Record: 0-2
Game: Seattle at Cincinnati
Prediction: Seattle - I'm having an incredibly difficult time picking this game. With Seattle coming off a Monday night game and this game being a 1 pm affair in the eastern portion of the country, I should probably go with Cincinnati. The 4-0 Bengals have been one of the most balanced and impressive teams in the first quarter of the season. However, with all of that being said, I'm still leaning in Seattle's direction. They appear to be finding themselves offensively, will present a new look and challenge to the Cincinnati defense, and I look for the Legion of Boom to show the first cracks in the unbeaten Bengals' armor to this point in the season. I'm taking the Seahawks by a field goal.
Result: Cincinnati 27 Seattle 24 OT
Record: 0-3
Game: Washington at Atlanta
Prediction: Atlanta - Through four games, no team has been as impressive offensively than the 4-0 Atlanta Falcons. Not only do they showcase one of the greatest passing attacks in all of football, they've suddenly found a resurgent ground attack. Even if Washington's Kirk Cousins plays his A-game, I have a hard time seeing the 'Skins match the Falcons score for score. I'm going with Atlanta by 13.
Result: Atlanta 25 Washington 19 OT
Record: 1-3
Game: Jacksonville at Tampa Bay
Prediction: Jacksonville - Flip a coin on this one... Jameis Winston has been incredibly inconsistent in the early going of his rookie campaign, which makes his Tampa Bay Buccaneers extremely difficult to predict. Given that, I have just slightly more faith in Blake Bortles, as well as the Jacksonville defense giving Winston problems, than I do in the rookie quarterback and the Buccs' defense giving Bortles problems. I'll hesitantly take the Jaguars by 4.
Result: Tampa Bay 38 Jacksonville 31
Record: 1-4
Game: New Orleans at Philadelphia
Prediction: Philadelphia - Here are two teams I keep thinking are better than they actually are, and with each currently at 1-3, both the Eagles and Saints are in desperation mode. With the game in Philadelphia, I'm giving the Eagles a slight advantage, but like with the Jacksonville/Tampa Bay game, flip a coin on this one. Drew Brees doesn't seem to be at full strength, the Saints defense is incredibly young and unpredictable, yet the Eagles offense has been anything but impressive to start the season. I'll simply shrug my shoulders and give Philly the slight edge at home. I'll go with the Eagles by 4.
Result: Philadelphia 39 New Orleans 17
Record: 2-4
Game: Cleveland at Baltimore
Prediction: Baltimore - The Ravens should be 0-4, as via miracle, they were able to beat Pittsburgh in overtime last Thursday night. Regardless of how lucky they were to come out victorious in that game, it does present the former Super Bowl champions with some hope moving forward. If they lose this game, it'll be incredibly difficult to catch the 4-0 Bengals in the AFC North. Given that, I think Joe Flacco and company will rise to the challenge to sneak past a pesky Cleveland team by 6.
Result: Cleveland 33 Baltimore 30 OT
Record: 2-5
Game: St. Louis at Green Bay
Prediction: Green Bay - It's incredibly difficult to figure out the St. Louis Rams. In their two wins, over arguably the two best teams in the NFC, Seattle and Arizona, the Rams outscored their opponents 58-53. In their two losses, against a beaten up Pittsburgh team and the mediocre Washington Redskins, the Rams were outscored 36-16. So against two of the better defenses in football, the Rams are 2-0 and have averaged to score 29 points per game. Against two mediocre defenses, St. Louis is 0-2, and has averaged to score 8 points per game. With the game at Lambeau against a less-than-stellar Packers defense, expect that trend to continue. I'll take Green Bay at home by 10.
Result: Green Bay 24 St. Louis 10
Record: 3-5
Game: Buffalo at Tennessee
Prediction: Buffalo - Like St. Louis, Buffalo is another team that's hard to figure out. They beat up on the perhaps worse-than-expected Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins by the score of 68-28. They played New England fairly tough in their 40-32 loss to the Patriots. The most perplexing game of all came this past weekend in their 24-10 loss at home to the then 1-2 New York Giants. At times, this team appears to be on the verge of snapping their playoff drought, yet at others, they appear to be the 9-7 Bills of last year, missing on the Wild Card by a game. I do think they'll get back on track this week. Marcus Mariota has played fairly well in the early going of his rookie season, but I expect the Bills' blitz packages to give he and the Titans offense headaches throughout this contest, causing turnovers in the process. I'll go with Buffalo by 10.
Result: Buffalo 14 Tennessee 13
Record: 4-5
Game: Arizona at Detroit
Prediction: Arizona - I have little confidence in the Detroit Lions right now, especially quarterback Matthew Stafford. Arizona loves to blitz, which means Stafford will likely get beat up again behind the line-of-scrimmage, not to mention turn the ball over at least two times. I look for the Cardinals to bounce back from their disappointing loss to St. Louis on Sunday with a 10-point win on the road against the Lions.
Result: Arizona 42 Detroit 17
Record: 5-5
Game: New England at Dallas
Prediction: New England - I don't think I need to analyze this game much. Dallas is 0-2 since Tony Romo went out with an injury. New England is coming off a bye week. We all know what happens when Bill Belichick is given an extra week to prepare. I like the Patriots in this one and I like them big. I'm taking New England by 17.
Result: New England 30 Dallas 6
Record: 6-5
Game: Denver at Oakland
Prediction: Denver - I paused ever so slightly before making this pick. Oakland is a pretty exciting young team on the offensive side of the ball, but the defense needs to show a lot of improvement before they can take that next step. Derek Carr may be a promising young quarterback for the future of the Raiders (and the league), but he's yet to go up against a defense like Denver's to this point in the season. I'll take Peyton Manning against the inconsistent Raiders defense any day of the week (Sunday in this case) over Derek Carr against the stout Broncos defense. I'm going with the Broncos by a touchdown.
Result: Denver 16 Oakland 10
Record: 7-5
Game: San Francisco at NY Giants
Prediction: NY Giants - While the Giants still make me nervous, especially on the defensive side of the ball, the San Francisco 49ers have been like night and day on that side of the ball when it comes to road and home games. At home this year, the Niners are 1-1, outscoring their opponents 23-20 (average of 11.5 - 10.0). On the road, San Francisco's 0-2, being outscored 90-25 (average of 45.0 - 12.5). While I don't foresee the 49ers losing by 30+ points in this one, I still have a difficult time seeing them win the game. I'll take the Giants at home by 10.
Result: NY Giants 30 San Francisco 27
Record: 8-5
Monday
Game: Pittsburgh at San Diego
Prediction: Pittsburgh - The Steelers should be 3-1 at this point, but two 4th quarter missed field goals by Josh Scobee and some questionable play-calling at the end of their overtime loss to Baltimore last Thursday have them at an even 2-2, desperately needing a bounce-back effort. With a week and a half to prepare for this one, I think Pittsburgh will go the less conservative route with Michael Vick at quarterback, allowing them to open things up more, and provide them with the bounce-back win they need. San Diego's always pesky and should keep things close throughout, but their defense, allowing 110 points through 4 games this season, makes me nervous, so I'm going to take the Steelers by 4.
Result: Pittsburgh 24 San Diego 20
Record: 9-5 (.643)
Week 5 Record: 9-5 (.643)
Overall Record: 47-30 (.610)
Game: Indianapolis at Houston
Prediction: Houston - If I'm told Andrew Luck will be 100% healthy for this Thursday night game, I might change my mind. However, I'm thinking that's unlikely, and with the game on the road against a desperate 1-3 Texans team, not to mention a hungry Texans defense, led by J.J. Watt, I think I like Houston to win this one by 4.
Result: Indianapolis 27 Houston 20
Record: 0-1
Sunday
Game: Chicago at Kansas City
Prediction: Kansas City - With or without a healthy Jay Cutler at quarterback, I don't like the chances of 1-3 Chicago to win on the road at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City is better than their 1-3 record indicates, should be at worst 2-2 (after blowing a Thursday night game against Denver), and should have an easier time scoring touchdowns against the mediocre Bears defense than they did against Cincinnati this past Sunday. I'm taking the Chiefs at home by a touchdown.
Result: Chicago 18 Kansas City 17
Record: 0-2
Game: Seattle at Cincinnati
Prediction: Seattle - I'm having an incredibly difficult time picking this game. With Seattle coming off a Monday night game and this game being a 1 pm affair in the eastern portion of the country, I should probably go with Cincinnati. The 4-0 Bengals have been one of the most balanced and impressive teams in the first quarter of the season. However, with all of that being said, I'm still leaning in Seattle's direction. They appear to be finding themselves offensively, will present a new look and challenge to the Cincinnati defense, and I look for the Legion of Boom to show the first cracks in the unbeaten Bengals' armor to this point in the season. I'm taking the Seahawks by a field goal.
Result: Cincinnati 27 Seattle 24 OT
Record: 0-3
Game: Washington at Atlanta
Prediction: Atlanta - Through four games, no team has been as impressive offensively than the 4-0 Atlanta Falcons. Not only do they showcase one of the greatest passing attacks in all of football, they've suddenly found a resurgent ground attack. Even if Washington's Kirk Cousins plays his A-game, I have a hard time seeing the 'Skins match the Falcons score for score. I'm going with Atlanta by 13.
Result: Atlanta 25 Washington 19 OT
Record: 1-3
Game: Jacksonville at Tampa Bay
Prediction: Jacksonville - Flip a coin on this one... Jameis Winston has been incredibly inconsistent in the early going of his rookie campaign, which makes his Tampa Bay Buccaneers extremely difficult to predict. Given that, I have just slightly more faith in Blake Bortles, as well as the Jacksonville defense giving Winston problems, than I do in the rookie quarterback and the Buccs' defense giving Bortles problems. I'll hesitantly take the Jaguars by 4.
Result: Tampa Bay 38 Jacksonville 31
Record: 1-4
Game: New Orleans at Philadelphia
Prediction: Philadelphia - Here are two teams I keep thinking are better than they actually are, and with each currently at 1-3, both the Eagles and Saints are in desperation mode. With the game in Philadelphia, I'm giving the Eagles a slight advantage, but like with the Jacksonville/Tampa Bay game, flip a coin on this one. Drew Brees doesn't seem to be at full strength, the Saints defense is incredibly young and unpredictable, yet the Eagles offense has been anything but impressive to start the season. I'll simply shrug my shoulders and give Philly the slight edge at home. I'll go with the Eagles by 4.
Result: Philadelphia 39 New Orleans 17
Record: 2-4
Game: Cleveland at Baltimore
Prediction: Baltimore - The Ravens should be 0-4, as via miracle, they were able to beat Pittsburgh in overtime last Thursday night. Regardless of how lucky they were to come out victorious in that game, it does present the former Super Bowl champions with some hope moving forward. If they lose this game, it'll be incredibly difficult to catch the 4-0 Bengals in the AFC North. Given that, I think Joe Flacco and company will rise to the challenge to sneak past a pesky Cleveland team by 6.
Result: Cleveland 33 Baltimore 30 OT
Record: 2-5
Game: St. Louis at Green Bay
Prediction: Green Bay - It's incredibly difficult to figure out the St. Louis Rams. In their two wins, over arguably the two best teams in the NFC, Seattle and Arizona, the Rams outscored their opponents 58-53. In their two losses, against a beaten up Pittsburgh team and the mediocre Washington Redskins, the Rams were outscored 36-16. So against two of the better defenses in football, the Rams are 2-0 and have averaged to score 29 points per game. Against two mediocre defenses, St. Louis is 0-2, and has averaged to score 8 points per game. With the game at Lambeau against a less-than-stellar Packers defense, expect that trend to continue. I'll take Green Bay at home by 10.
Result: Green Bay 24 St. Louis 10
Record: 3-5
Game: Buffalo at Tennessee
Prediction: Buffalo - Like St. Louis, Buffalo is another team that's hard to figure out. They beat up on the perhaps worse-than-expected Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins by the score of 68-28. They played New England fairly tough in their 40-32 loss to the Patriots. The most perplexing game of all came this past weekend in their 24-10 loss at home to the then 1-2 New York Giants. At times, this team appears to be on the verge of snapping their playoff drought, yet at others, they appear to be the 9-7 Bills of last year, missing on the Wild Card by a game. I do think they'll get back on track this week. Marcus Mariota has played fairly well in the early going of his rookie season, but I expect the Bills' blitz packages to give he and the Titans offense headaches throughout this contest, causing turnovers in the process. I'll go with Buffalo by 10.
Result: Buffalo 14 Tennessee 13
Record: 4-5
Game: Arizona at Detroit
Prediction: Arizona - I have little confidence in the Detroit Lions right now, especially quarterback Matthew Stafford. Arizona loves to blitz, which means Stafford will likely get beat up again behind the line-of-scrimmage, not to mention turn the ball over at least two times. I look for the Cardinals to bounce back from their disappointing loss to St. Louis on Sunday with a 10-point win on the road against the Lions.
Result: Arizona 42 Detroit 17
Record: 5-5
Game: New England at Dallas
Prediction: New England - I don't think I need to analyze this game much. Dallas is 0-2 since Tony Romo went out with an injury. New England is coming off a bye week. We all know what happens when Bill Belichick is given an extra week to prepare. I like the Patriots in this one and I like them big. I'm taking New England by 17.
Result: New England 30 Dallas 6
Record: 6-5
Game: Denver at Oakland
Prediction: Denver - I paused ever so slightly before making this pick. Oakland is a pretty exciting young team on the offensive side of the ball, but the defense needs to show a lot of improvement before they can take that next step. Derek Carr may be a promising young quarterback for the future of the Raiders (and the league), but he's yet to go up against a defense like Denver's to this point in the season. I'll take Peyton Manning against the inconsistent Raiders defense any day of the week (Sunday in this case) over Derek Carr against the stout Broncos defense. I'm going with the Broncos by a touchdown.
Result: Denver 16 Oakland 10
Record: 7-5
Game: San Francisco at NY Giants
Prediction: NY Giants - While the Giants still make me nervous, especially on the defensive side of the ball, the San Francisco 49ers have been like night and day on that side of the ball when it comes to road and home games. At home this year, the Niners are 1-1, outscoring their opponents 23-20 (average of 11.5 - 10.0). On the road, San Francisco's 0-2, being outscored 90-25 (average of 45.0 - 12.5). While I don't foresee the 49ers losing by 30+ points in this one, I still have a difficult time seeing them win the game. I'll take the Giants at home by 10.
Result: NY Giants 30 San Francisco 27
Record: 8-5
Monday
Game: Pittsburgh at San Diego
Prediction: Pittsburgh - The Steelers should be 3-1 at this point, but two 4th quarter missed field goals by Josh Scobee and some questionable play-calling at the end of their overtime loss to Baltimore last Thursday have them at an even 2-2, desperately needing a bounce-back effort. With a week and a half to prepare for this one, I think Pittsburgh will go the less conservative route with Michael Vick at quarterback, allowing them to open things up more, and provide them with the bounce-back win they need. San Diego's always pesky and should keep things close throughout, but their defense, allowing 110 points through 4 games this season, makes me nervous, so I'm going to take the Steelers by 4.
Result: Pittsburgh 24 San Diego 20
Record: 9-5 (.643)
Week 5 Record: 9-5 (.643)
Overall Record: 47-30 (.610)
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