I, like many college football fans, am quite excited about the 4-team playoff this season. However, when I hear talking heads in the media and see the latest AP top 25 poll, I notice a common theme: "Let's have at least 3 of the 4 teams be from the SEC, if not all 4!" This I'm not excited about.
The thing is this, the SEC may very well be the best conference in all of college football, but I don't think it's as clear-cut as most sports commentators think it is, and how will we know if any conferences compare if we don't give them a chance to beat the SEC in the 4-team playoff?
In the latest AP top 25 poll, four unbeatens are in the poll, along with 15 one-loss teams. Here's how those teams rank:
1) Mississippi State (6-0/SEC)
2) Florida State (7-0/ACC)
3) Mississippi (7-0/SEC)
4) Alabama (6-1/SEC)
5) Auburn (5-1/SEC)
6) Oregon (6-1/Pac-12)
7) Notre Dame (6-1/Independent)
8) Michigan State (6-1/Big Ten)
9) Georgia (6-1/SEC)
10) TCU (5-1/Big XII)
11) Kansas State (5-1/Big XII)
12) Baylor (6-1/Big XII)
13) Ohio State (5-1/Big Ten)
14) Arizona State (5-1/Pac-12)
15) Arizona (5-1/Pac-12)
16) Nebraska (6-1/Big Ten)
18) East Carolina (5-1/American Athletic)
19) Utah (5-1/Pac-12)
23) Marshall (7-0/Conference USA)
Yes, four of the top five teams in the country are from the SEC, and among the top six one-loss teams, three are from the SEC. So, what gives? Is the SEC THAT superior to all other conferences? After digging through some numbers, the answer to this point is actually no.
How are we to measure conferences' strength in any other way than how they fare against the top conferences? When it comes to the power 5 (ACC, Big XII, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC), here's how those very numbers break down to this point in the season:
Record (against the other four major conferences and Notre Dame)
1) SEC: 5-2 (.714)
2) Pac-12: 6-3 (.667)
3) ACC: 5-7 (.417)
4) Big XII: 4-6 (.400)
5) Big Ten: 5-11 (.313)
- So, yes, the SEC currently has the best record here, but have also played fewer such games than any other conference. The Pac-12 and Big-12, which only play three non-conference games as opposed to four, have played 2 and 3 more games against the other four power conferences than the SEC. The ACC has played 5 more games against the other four power conferences, and the Big Ten has played 9 more. To have played just 7 games against the other four power conferences among 14 teams isn't very impressive from a strength of schedule standpoint.
Opponents record in wins (against the other four major conferences and Notre Dame)
1) ACC: 23-11 (.676)
2) Big XII: 18-9 (.667)
2) SEC: 22-11 (.667)
4) Pac-12: 22-20 (.524)
5) Big Ten: 16-17 (.485)
- Again, the SEC is fairly impressive here, but aren't any more impressive than the Big XII or ACC.
Point differential in wins (against the other four major conferences and Notre Dame)
1) ACC: +13.6
2) Big XII: +13.2
3) Pac-12: +13.0
3) SEC: +13.0
5) Big Ten: +8.8
- Once again, the SEC is right in line with everyone else except for the Big Ten, who hasn't been very impressive in the breakdown to this point.
Opponents record in losses (against the other four major conferences and Notre Dame)
1) ACC: 39-10 (.796)
2) Big XII: 32-9 (.780)
3) Pac-12: 15-6 (.714)
4) Big Ten: 54-22 (.711)
5) SEC: 8-6 (.571)
- The SEC hasn't had nearly as many losses as the ACC, Big XII, or Big Ten, however, they still rank dead last in this category.
Point differential in losses (against the other four major conferences and Notre Dame)
1) Pac-12: -4.0
2) ACC: -11.8
3) Big XII: -14.0
3) SEC: -14.0
5) Big Ten: -14.6
- Once again, the SEC is right in line with everyone except for the Pac-12, which was just three plays away from being 9-0 against the other major conferences.
So, as you can see, to this point in the season, the SEC definitely hasn't proven itself as the far superior conference and worthy of four of the top five spots in the latest AP poll. While the conference has played very well to this point in the season, the sample size against quality competition is smaller than any of the other four power conferences and it appears as if they've been rewarded based on history and bias. By the end of the season, they may very well prove that they're the top conference in all of football, but they haven't done so yet, and while I wouldn't be against having two SEC teams in the 4-team playoff, I think having 3-4 teams from the same conference in that playoff would do a disservice to the playoff's intent. The SEC may have won the majority of national titles over the past decade, but how can any conference dethrone them if they're not given an opportunity to do so?
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2237344-ap-college-football-poll-2014-official-top-25-rankings-and-week-9-projections
The thing is this, the SEC may very well be the best conference in all of college football, but I don't think it's as clear-cut as most sports commentators think it is, and how will we know if any conferences compare if we don't give them a chance to beat the SEC in the 4-team playoff?
In the latest AP top 25 poll, four unbeatens are in the poll, along with 15 one-loss teams. Here's how those teams rank:
1) Mississippi State (6-0/SEC)
2) Florida State (7-0/ACC)
3) Mississippi (7-0/SEC)
4) Alabama (6-1/SEC)
5) Auburn (5-1/SEC)
6) Oregon (6-1/Pac-12)
7) Notre Dame (6-1/Independent)
8) Michigan State (6-1/Big Ten)
9) Georgia (6-1/SEC)
10) TCU (5-1/Big XII)
11) Kansas State (5-1/Big XII)
12) Baylor (6-1/Big XII)
13) Ohio State (5-1/Big Ten)
14) Arizona State (5-1/Pac-12)
15) Arizona (5-1/Pac-12)
16) Nebraska (6-1/Big Ten)
18) East Carolina (5-1/American Athletic)
19) Utah (5-1/Pac-12)
23) Marshall (7-0/Conference USA)
Yes, four of the top five teams in the country are from the SEC, and among the top six one-loss teams, three are from the SEC. So, what gives? Is the SEC THAT superior to all other conferences? After digging through some numbers, the answer to this point is actually no.
How are we to measure conferences' strength in any other way than how they fare against the top conferences? When it comes to the power 5 (ACC, Big XII, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC), here's how those very numbers break down to this point in the season:
Record (against the other four major conferences and Notre Dame)
1) SEC: 5-2 (.714)
2) Pac-12: 6-3 (.667)
3) ACC: 5-7 (.417)
4) Big XII: 4-6 (.400)
5) Big Ten: 5-11 (.313)
- So, yes, the SEC currently has the best record here, but have also played fewer such games than any other conference. The Pac-12 and Big-12, which only play three non-conference games as opposed to four, have played 2 and 3 more games against the other four power conferences than the SEC. The ACC has played 5 more games against the other four power conferences, and the Big Ten has played 9 more. To have played just 7 games against the other four power conferences among 14 teams isn't very impressive from a strength of schedule standpoint.
Opponents record in wins (against the other four major conferences and Notre Dame)
1) ACC: 23-11 (.676)
2) Big XII: 18-9 (.667)
2) SEC: 22-11 (.667)
4) Pac-12: 22-20 (.524)
5) Big Ten: 16-17 (.485)
- Again, the SEC is fairly impressive here, but aren't any more impressive than the Big XII or ACC.
Point differential in wins (against the other four major conferences and Notre Dame)
1) ACC: +13.6
2) Big XII: +13.2
3) Pac-12: +13.0
3) SEC: +13.0
5) Big Ten: +8.8
- Once again, the SEC is right in line with everyone else except for the Big Ten, who hasn't been very impressive in the breakdown to this point.
Opponents record in losses (against the other four major conferences and Notre Dame)
1) ACC: 39-10 (.796)
2) Big XII: 32-9 (.780)
3) Pac-12: 15-6 (.714)
4) Big Ten: 54-22 (.711)
5) SEC: 8-6 (.571)
- The SEC hasn't had nearly as many losses as the ACC, Big XII, or Big Ten, however, they still rank dead last in this category.
Point differential in losses (against the other four major conferences and Notre Dame)
1) Pac-12: -4.0
2) ACC: -11.8
3) Big XII: -14.0
3) SEC: -14.0
5) Big Ten: -14.6
- Once again, the SEC is right in line with everyone except for the Pac-12, which was just three plays away from being 9-0 against the other major conferences.
So, as you can see, to this point in the season, the SEC definitely hasn't proven itself as the far superior conference and worthy of four of the top five spots in the latest AP poll. While the conference has played very well to this point in the season, the sample size against quality competition is smaller than any of the other four power conferences and it appears as if they've been rewarded based on history and bias. By the end of the season, they may very well prove that they're the top conference in all of football, but they haven't done so yet, and while I wouldn't be against having two SEC teams in the 4-team playoff, I think having 3-4 teams from the same conference in that playoff would do a disservice to the playoff's intent. The SEC may have won the majority of national titles over the past decade, but how can any conference dethrone them if they're not given an opportunity to do so?
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2237344-ap-college-football-poll-2014-official-top-25-rankings-and-week-9-projections
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