It seems that much of the talk this week surrounding the NFL has been with regard to coaches. So, I thought I'd put in my two cents on the hot topics of the week:
1) Is Bill Belichick and Tom Brady's successful run over?
After the New England Patriots were dominated on Monday night against the Kansas City Chiefs, falling 41-14, which dropped them to 2-2 on the season, I can't tell you how many times analysts asked the question, "Is that it?" My response? Let's not jump the gun quite yet. While it's true that the Patriots have looked like anything but their old selves this season, they do play in the AFC (L)East and are currently tied for the division lead, alongside Buffalo and Miami. To start the year last season, while New England was 2-0, they had beaten the Buffalo Bills (who went on to be 6-10) and the New York Jets (8-8) by the combined score of 36-31 (average of 18.0 - 15.5), and many people were asking, "Is that it for Tom Brady and the New England Patriots offense?" They went on to finish the year 12-4, losing to the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship game by the final score of 26-16. After the sluggish start on offense, New England went on to score 408 points in their final 14 games - and average of 29.1 per contest. Like last season, Tom Brady has to adjust to some new faces on offense, and the coaching staff needs to make proper adjustments to find how their offense can be at its most efficient. Also, while Brady's numbers are down this year and quarterbacks tend to get the blame when things aren't going well, the struggles on offense aren't all because of the future Hall of Fame quarterback. He's never been fleet of foot and their offensive line has been so awful, the likes of Robert Griffin III, Colin Kaepernick, and Michael Vick wouldn't be able to scramble out of trouble. The running game hasn't been utilized a great deal. Also, while this has been commonplace for the Patriots offense through the years, with a couple of exceptions, there aren't Pro Bowl quality receivers on the team right now, and tight end Rob Gronkowski isn't back to his former self just yet. Have the Patriots struggled on offense to this point in the season? Yes. Has this happened before in the Belichick and Brady era? Yes. Have they always seemed to find a way to make things work by mid-season? Yes again. While I'd be surprised to see the Patriots win 12 games again this season, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them come away with another division title, so let's cool it on the "it's-the-end-of-an-era" talk until after the season, at the very earliest.
2) Has the rest of the league caught up to Chip Kelly's offense?
In one word, no. Despite their struggles on the road against San Francisco last week, Philadelphia is still 10th in the league in yards per game, 6th in the league in passing yards per game, and 3rd in the league in points per game. They were the only team in the league to score 30 or more points in each of their first three games this season. Just because their offense was shut down for one week, doesn't mean the rest of the league has caught up to Chip Kelly's offense. Also, let's not pretend that they were going up against a below-average defensive unit. The San Francisco 49ers have been ranked in the top 5 in most defensive categories since Jim Harbaugh took over, and this year has been no different. They're ranked 2nd in yards allowed per game, 7th in passing yards allowed per game, and 2nd in rushing yards allowed per game. The main reason why they're ranked 12th in points allowed per game is because of special teams miscues, turnovers by Colin Kaepernick, and ill-timed penalties. So, just because Chip Kelly's Philadelphia Eagles weren't able to get much done against a top 5 defense on the road doesn't mean much of anything. If this trend continues for several weeks, and against average defenses, then we can start talking.
3) Is there reason to worry about reports that players on the San Francisco 49ers don't like Jim Harbaugh?
Not at this point, I don't believe. Jim Harbaugh may not be a player's coach, but just about every coach in the league will have players that don't like him. Harbaugh's no different. In the end, it's all about winning games, and if the 49ers win games, most of the players won't complain. During his tenure there, Jim Harbaugh is 38-13-1. He's 8-5 in the playoffs, has taken his team to three consecutive NFC Championship games, as well as one Super Bowl. I don't care how hard-headed of a coach he is, with that kind of resume, the players better listen, and if he's let go after this year, there will be a long line of teams wanting him to lead them. Also, while San Francisco is a disappointing 2-2 to start this season, their two wins have come against teams with a combined 6-2 record (Dallas and Philadelphia), and their two losses have come against teams with a combined 5-2 record (Chicago and Arizona). To this point in the season, they've had arguably the toughest schedule of anyone in football. They started the year 1-2 last season and would up going 12-4 and playing in the NFC Championship game yet again.
4) Could this be it for Mike Tomlin in Pittsburgh?
While I don't think all of the Pittsburgh Steelers' problems are the fault of head coach Mike Tomlin, if the team fails to make the playoffs again this year, I have a hunch this could be his last year with the team. In his first five years there, Tomlin was 58-28 (.674), which included one AFC Championship game appearance and one Super Bowl victory. In his past 2+ seasons, the Steelers have gone 18-18 (.500), going an even 8-8 in both 2012 and 2013 and 2-2 to start this season. One major problem for the team is they've gotten older and have yet to replace key stars with young talents that will be able to provide similar numbers in the coming years. This isn't all Tomlin's doing, of course, but at the end of the season, if Pittsburgh again finishes around 8-8 and doesn't make it into the post-season, I have a hard time believing Tomlin will stick around for another year.
5) Why is Rex Ryan sticking with Geno Smith?
That's becoming increasingly difficult to answer. While Rex Ryan's coaching career got off to a great start in New York, it's reached a point where patience is wearing thin and if he doesn't lead the Jets to a playoff game this year, his time there might be done. In his first two seasons with the team, the Jets went a combined 20-12 in the regular season (.625) and 4-2 in the playoffs (.667). However, in his last 3+ seasons, the Jets have gone 23-29 (.442) and haven't reached the playoffs. Overall, Geno Smith's numbers are slightly better than last year, but he's still turning the ball over a great deal, and at the most critical of times. He's also struggled inside of the red zone. His completion percentage is up from 55.8 to 60.3. His touchdown to interception ratio has improved from 12 : 21 to 4 : 5, but then again, that's not saying much. He's also lost four fumbles. Smith has run for one touchdown, so through four games, his touchdown to turnover ratio is 5: 9. The second-year starter has thrown for more yards per game to start this season, up from 190.4 to 230.5, and his quarterback rating has increased slightly as well, from 66.5 to 75.1. His yards per attempt hasn't moved much either way, as he averaged 6.9 yards per pass last season and is currently averaging 6.8 yards per pass this season. So, while there have been slight progressions in his overall numbers, he's failed to make those progressions during critical moments of games, and with Rex Ryan on the hot seat, it's a wonder how much longer he'll stick with Smith over Michael Vick. Vick may not be the answer to all of the Jets problems, but he will provide more flexibility on offense with his mobility. Given the Jets' lack of talent at the skill positions, Vick's speed and elusiveness could indeed be beneficial. If Smith plays poorly yet again this coming Sunday when the Jets head to San Diego to take on the hot Chargers, that would drop the Jets to 1-4 and quite possibly two games behind the division leader. The only good news for the Jets in all this is the fact they play in the AFC East. Even at 1-3, New York is only a game behind co-division leaders New England, Buffalo, and Miami. This week, New England squares off against the unbeaten Cincinnati Bengals at home, Buffalo goes to Detroit to take on the 3-1 Lions, and Miami has a bye. So, yes, when all is said and done, Miami could lead the division at 2-2 come Sunday night, and New York could only find themselves 1.5 games behind the Dolphins, even at 1-4.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2013.htm
http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/sort/totalPointsPerGame
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/RyanRe0.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitGe00.htm
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