This post would have been much more appropriate a week ago, before the chaos we witnessed in the college football world this past weekend, than following it, just a day before the playoff committee releases their second poll of the season. Heading into the weekend, the only team I had a problem with being ranked in the committee's top 4 was 1-loss Alabama. Clemson and LSU were definitely worthy of being in the top 4, and Ohio State, reminiscent of Florida State from last season, would deserve a shot to defend their title if they finish the year with an unblemished record.
Looking at the committee's first poll of the year, it appears they're still in love with the SEC, still can't stand the Big XII, and don't much care for the Pac-12 either. Then unbeaten Baylor and TCU were ranked 6 and 8, respectively, and the highest Pac-12 ranked team was 7-1 Stanford at 11. Meanwhile, the SEC fielded three teams in the top 10, including two in the top 4.
Oh, but what a difference a week makes. It started on Tuesday night when unbeaten and 24th ranked Toledo blew a 4th quarter lead against Northern Illinois. On Saturday, the following undefeated teams went down: #2 LSU, #7 Michigan State, #8 TCU, and #13 Memphis. Not only that, but #6 Baylor struggled with Kansas State on Thursday night, #3 Ohio State was sluggish in their win over Minnesota, #9 Iowa had a difficult time putting away Indiana, and #10 Florida was lucky to squeak by Vanderbilt. Not only that, but Ole Miss, the only team to beat Alabama to this point in the season, fell to Arkansas in overtime.
So now what? Who is truly deserving of being in the top 4? Should the SEC be seen as the king of all major conferences again this year, even they've gone two consecutive seasons without winning the national championship? Which teams are currently overvalued and undervalued, and are there any teams ranked outside the top 10 which could still make a run for the playoff?
Given the crazy weekend, while there will likely be debate on which teams should fill the 2 through 4 spots, there probably won't be much debate on Clemson being the #1 team in the country at the moment. It's currently ESPN's guess that the top 4 will read as follows: 1) Clemson, 2) Ohio State, 3) Alabama, and 4) Baylor. No matter how unimpressive Ohio State has been at times this season and regardless of how weak Baylor's non-conference schedule might be, I'd have a difficult time arguing against the two of them being included in the playoff if it started next weekend. I guess the only question would be, how do the two teams truly stack up against fellow unbeatens Oklahoma State and Iowa? When it comes to strength of schedule, here's how those four teams currently rank; Oklahoma State - 53rd, Iowa - 62nd, Ohio State - 73rd, and Baylor - 94th. No matter what one thinks at the moment, if any of these unbeaten teams win out, they'll be in the 4-team playoff. Ohio State would be forced to square off with Iowa in the Big Ten title game. Baylor and Oklahoma State will face one another before the season ends. Clemson probably has the easiest road ahead of the remaining power conference unbeatens, so if they win out, they'll be guaranteed a spot as well. So things should work themselves out when it comes to the unbeatens. The biggest question mark will likely be with regard to a 1-loss team making the playoff. While I have a difficult time seeing TCU or Michigan State being a part of the conversation at season's end, the likes of Notre Dame, Stanford, LSU, Utah, Florida, and possibly even Oklahoma could challenge Alabama for a playoff spot. The most potentially challenging pick would be to select between Alabama and the winner of the Notre Dame/Stanford game.
To this point in the season, none of the three teams' resumes truly stand out from the others. Notre Dame had the most impressive loss among the three, as they fell to #1 Clemson by 2 points, while Stanford lost their opener to 2-loss Northwestern by 10, and Alabama fell by 6 to 3-loss Mississippi. Notre Dame's biggest wins came against Navy, USC, Temple, and Pittsburgh, while also beating underachieving teams like Texas, Virginia, and Georgia Tech. They should win their next two against Wake Forest and Boston College and be 10-1 when the Irish travel to the West Coast to take on Stanford. The Cardinal has pretty much dominated since their disappointing season-opening loss to Northwestern. They've had little to no problem doing away with USC, Arizona, UCLA, Washington, and Washington State. They have the toughest remaining schedule of the three teams, though, as they will have to face Oregon, California, and Notre Dame in the final quarter of a season. Fortunately for them, though, all three games will be played at home. Lastly, Alabama beat disappointing Wisconsin to start the season, had no trouble putting away the hobbled Georgia on the road in Athens, had their share of troubles against Arkansas and Tennessee, but dominated both Texas A&M and LSU. Their remaining three games are: Mississippi State, Charleston Southern, and Auburn.
So long as Clemson, Ohio State, and Baylor don't slip up along the way, Alabama will need to pull for Florida to win their remaining games, because if the Gators fall and either Notre Dame or Stanford goes unbeaten the rest of the way, their impressive wins down the stretch could potentially result in them leap-frogging the Tide in the final poll. Not only that, but they better hope Ole Miss bounces back from their disappointing loss to Arkansas this past weekend, because especially if the committee compares the 1-loss teams Alabama and Notre Dame, the Irish's 2-point defeat at the hands of #1 Clemson will be much more impressive than the Tide's 6-point loss to an unranked Mississippi Rebels squad.
If it were me ranking the teams this week, here's how the top 4 (and next 2) would read:
1) Clemson
2) Baylor
3) Ohio State
4) Stanford
5) Alabama
6) Notre Dame
Side note: Here are the five power conferences' records against one another and Notre Dame
1) SEC: 5-2 (.714)
2) Big Ten: 9-8 (.529)
3) Big XII: 4-4 (.500)
4) Pac-12: 4-5 (.444)
5) ACC: 4-11 (.267)
Looking at the committee's first poll of the year, it appears they're still in love with the SEC, still can't stand the Big XII, and don't much care for the Pac-12 either. Then unbeaten Baylor and TCU were ranked 6 and 8, respectively, and the highest Pac-12 ranked team was 7-1 Stanford at 11. Meanwhile, the SEC fielded three teams in the top 10, including two in the top 4.
Oh, but what a difference a week makes. It started on Tuesday night when unbeaten and 24th ranked Toledo blew a 4th quarter lead against Northern Illinois. On Saturday, the following undefeated teams went down: #2 LSU, #7 Michigan State, #8 TCU, and #13 Memphis. Not only that, but #6 Baylor struggled with Kansas State on Thursday night, #3 Ohio State was sluggish in their win over Minnesota, #9 Iowa had a difficult time putting away Indiana, and #10 Florida was lucky to squeak by Vanderbilt. Not only that, but Ole Miss, the only team to beat Alabama to this point in the season, fell to Arkansas in overtime.
So now what? Who is truly deserving of being in the top 4? Should the SEC be seen as the king of all major conferences again this year, even they've gone two consecutive seasons without winning the national championship? Which teams are currently overvalued and undervalued, and are there any teams ranked outside the top 10 which could still make a run for the playoff?
Given the crazy weekend, while there will likely be debate on which teams should fill the 2 through 4 spots, there probably won't be much debate on Clemson being the #1 team in the country at the moment. It's currently ESPN's guess that the top 4 will read as follows: 1) Clemson, 2) Ohio State, 3) Alabama, and 4) Baylor. No matter how unimpressive Ohio State has been at times this season and regardless of how weak Baylor's non-conference schedule might be, I'd have a difficult time arguing against the two of them being included in the playoff if it started next weekend. I guess the only question would be, how do the two teams truly stack up against fellow unbeatens Oklahoma State and Iowa? When it comes to strength of schedule, here's how those four teams currently rank; Oklahoma State - 53rd, Iowa - 62nd, Ohio State - 73rd, and Baylor - 94th. No matter what one thinks at the moment, if any of these unbeaten teams win out, they'll be in the 4-team playoff. Ohio State would be forced to square off with Iowa in the Big Ten title game. Baylor and Oklahoma State will face one another before the season ends. Clemson probably has the easiest road ahead of the remaining power conference unbeatens, so if they win out, they'll be guaranteed a spot as well. So things should work themselves out when it comes to the unbeatens. The biggest question mark will likely be with regard to a 1-loss team making the playoff. While I have a difficult time seeing TCU or Michigan State being a part of the conversation at season's end, the likes of Notre Dame, Stanford, LSU, Utah, Florida, and possibly even Oklahoma could challenge Alabama for a playoff spot. The most potentially challenging pick would be to select between Alabama and the winner of the Notre Dame/Stanford game.
To this point in the season, none of the three teams' resumes truly stand out from the others. Notre Dame had the most impressive loss among the three, as they fell to #1 Clemson by 2 points, while Stanford lost their opener to 2-loss Northwestern by 10, and Alabama fell by 6 to 3-loss Mississippi. Notre Dame's biggest wins came against Navy, USC, Temple, and Pittsburgh, while also beating underachieving teams like Texas, Virginia, and Georgia Tech. They should win their next two against Wake Forest and Boston College and be 10-1 when the Irish travel to the West Coast to take on Stanford. The Cardinal has pretty much dominated since their disappointing season-opening loss to Northwestern. They've had little to no problem doing away with USC, Arizona, UCLA, Washington, and Washington State. They have the toughest remaining schedule of the three teams, though, as they will have to face Oregon, California, and Notre Dame in the final quarter of a season. Fortunately for them, though, all three games will be played at home. Lastly, Alabama beat disappointing Wisconsin to start the season, had no trouble putting away the hobbled Georgia on the road in Athens, had their share of troubles against Arkansas and Tennessee, but dominated both Texas A&M and LSU. Their remaining three games are: Mississippi State, Charleston Southern, and Auburn.
So long as Clemson, Ohio State, and Baylor don't slip up along the way, Alabama will need to pull for Florida to win their remaining games, because if the Gators fall and either Notre Dame or Stanford goes unbeaten the rest of the way, their impressive wins down the stretch could potentially result in them leap-frogging the Tide in the final poll. Not only that, but they better hope Ole Miss bounces back from their disappointing loss to Arkansas this past weekend, because especially if the committee compares the 1-loss teams Alabama and Notre Dame, the Irish's 2-point defeat at the hands of #1 Clemson will be much more impressive than the Tide's 6-point loss to an unranked Mississippi Rebels squad.
If it were me ranking the teams this week, here's how the top 4 (and next 2) would read:
1) Clemson
2) Baylor
3) Ohio State
4) Stanford
5) Alabama
6) Notre Dame
Side note: Here are the five power conferences' records against one another and Notre Dame
1) SEC: 5-2 (.714)
2) Big Ten: 9-8 (.529)
3) Big XII: 4-4 (.500)
4) Pac-12: 4-5 (.444)
5) ACC: 4-11 (.267)
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