We're still six weeks away from the election and there's still plenty of time for Republican candidate Mitt Romney to make up ground in the polls, but Obama's numbers have been surging in recent days and if the election were held tomorrow, I think he'd carry all the states he did in the 2008 election with one exception - Indiana.
I've now added two to that list, since polls are now consistently showing the president ahead by double-digits:
18) Michigan (16 - 217)
19) Pennsylvania (20 - 237)
I'm more tentative about these states, but in light of recent polls showcasing the president as ahead by between 5 and 10 points, I think these two states are close to being locks for Obama:
20) Wisconsin (10 - 247)
21) Ohio (18 - 265)
At this point in time, President Obama has 21 near locks worth a total of 265 electoral votes, needing only 5 more to win another four years in the Oval Office. Lucky for him, there are four more states which are strongly leaning his direction in recent polls, but I'll need to see more long-term evidence in order to bump them up to locks:
22) Iowa (6 - 271)
23) Colorado (9 - 280)
24) Nevada (6 - 286)
25) Virginia (13 - 299)
Two more states are leaning Obama's direction, but are kind of on the border between toss-up and strong lean status:
26) New Hampshire (4 - 303)
27) Florida (29 - 332)
Finally, while North Carolina has been trending Obama's direction in recent polls, I'm still hesitant to call that anything but a toss-up state. That is worth another 15 electoral votes, though and would vault Obama to 347.
If all this news wasn't bad enough for Romney, polling has been closer in the following states than the Republican nominee had hoped:
Indiana (11)
Tennessee (11)
Georgia (16)
Missouri (10)
Montana (3)
Arizona (11)
The gap in Indiana has closed to about 5% points. While I give Romney a definite edge in the state, the way things have been trending across the country, I wouldn't be too shocked to see the Hoosier state go to Obama if things continue at this rate. A recent poll in Tennessee showed Romney only up 7%. This is an even greater long-shot for Obama, but just the fact he's so close in the Volunteer state speaks volumes. Montana has shown between a 6 and 9% lead for Romney. The lead has been between 5 and 10% in Georgia. Missouri, at one time, seemed to be a lock for Romney, but recent polls show the gap is closing to about 5-6%. Lastly, rumor has it that the Obama team is seriously contemplating running ads in Arizona due to an internal poll which showed them narrowly leading Romney. Polls released to the public haven't showcased the president as leading in that state, but one recent poll showed he has closed the gap rather significantly to 3%.
No matter which way the Romney campaign wants to spin in, they're in serious trouble and will have to hope that the president shows up drunk for next week's debate in order to significantly shake things up and give the former Governor a fighter's chance in what once were viewed as battleground states. Unfortunately for Romney, it seems as if every other time he opens his mouth, his approval numbers drop. Whose idea was it again to for him to campaign more and fundraise less? If it wasn't a member of the Obama team who lent that advice, I'll be quite perplexed.
What's the reason for Obama's surge at the polls? It could be a number of reasons, from Bill Clinton's speech and the Democratic National Convention bounce to Governor Romney's misstatements on Libya, the "47%" and emergency rooms to the jobs situation improving slowly but surely and beyond.
When I last looked at the electoral map a couple weeks ago or so, I saw Obama's guaranteed victories to be in the following states:
1) Washington (12 electoral votes - 12 total)
2) Oregon (7 - 19)
3) California (55 - 74)
4) Hawaii (4 - 78)
5) New Mexico (5 - 83)
6) Minnesota (10 - 93)
7) Illinois (20 - 113)
8) Maine (4 - 117)
9) Vermont (3 - 120)
10) New York (29 - 149)
11) Massachusetts (11 - 160)
12) Connecticut (7 - 167)
13) Rhode Island (4 - 171)
14) New Jersey (14 - 185)
15) Delaware (3 - 188)
16) Maryland (10 - 198)
17) Washington D.C. (3 - 201)
I've now added two to that list, since polls are now consistently showing the president ahead by double-digits:
18) Michigan (16 - 217)
19) Pennsylvania (20 - 237)
I'm more tentative about these states, but in light of recent polls showcasing the president as ahead by between 5 and 10 points, I think these two states are close to being locks for Obama:
20) Wisconsin (10 - 247)
21) Ohio (18 - 265)
At this point in time, President Obama has 21 near locks worth a total of 265 electoral votes, needing only 5 more to win another four years in the Oval Office. Lucky for him, there are four more states which are strongly leaning his direction in recent polls, but I'll need to see more long-term evidence in order to bump them up to locks:
22) Iowa (6 - 271)
23) Colorado (9 - 280)
24) Nevada (6 - 286)
25) Virginia (13 - 299)
Two more states are leaning Obama's direction, but are kind of on the border between toss-up and strong lean status:
26) New Hampshire (4 - 303)
27) Florida (29 - 332)
Finally, while North Carolina has been trending Obama's direction in recent polls, I'm still hesitant to call that anything but a toss-up state. That is worth another 15 electoral votes, though and would vault Obama to 347.
If all this news wasn't bad enough for Romney, polling has been closer in the following states than the Republican nominee had hoped:
Indiana (11)
Tennessee (11)
Georgia (16)
Missouri (10)
Montana (3)
Arizona (11)
The gap in Indiana has closed to about 5% points. While I give Romney a definite edge in the state, the way things have been trending across the country, I wouldn't be too shocked to see the Hoosier state go to Obama if things continue at this rate. A recent poll in Tennessee showed Romney only up 7%. This is an even greater long-shot for Obama, but just the fact he's so close in the Volunteer state speaks volumes. Montana has shown between a 6 and 9% lead for Romney. The lead has been between 5 and 10% in Georgia. Missouri, at one time, seemed to be a lock for Romney, but recent polls show the gap is closing to about 5-6%. Lastly, rumor has it that the Obama team is seriously contemplating running ads in Arizona due to an internal poll which showed them narrowly leading Romney. Polls released to the public haven't showcased the president as leading in that state, but one recent poll showed he has closed the gap rather significantly to 3%.
No matter which way the Romney campaign wants to spin in, they're in serious trouble and will have to hope that the president shows up drunk for next week's debate in order to significantly shake things up and give the former Governor a fighter's chance in what once were viewed as battleground states. Unfortunately for Romney, it seems as if every other time he opens his mouth, his approval numbers drop. Whose idea was it again to for him to campaign more and fundraise less? If it wasn't a member of the Obama team who lent that advice, I'll be quite perplexed.
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