With most all of the votes counted, I'm now going to see just how well I did with my predictions. Here are my predictions, along with the results (for the time being - some may be subject to change ever so slightly as more votes come in).
Solid Obama - all of these states (and D.C.) should go Obama's direction by at the very least, the upper single digits and in many cases, well over 10 points. I don't see any way that Romney wins any of these 17 states (including D.C.).
1. Washington, D.C.: 3 electoral votes (3 overall) (Obama - 91%, Romney - 7%/Obama by 84%)
2. Hawaii: 4 (7) (Obama - 70%, Romney - 28%/Obama by 42%)
3. Vermont: 3 (10) (Obama - 67%, Romney - 31%/Obama by 36%)
4. New York: 29 (39) (Obama - 63%, Romney - 36%/Obama by 27%)
5. Illinois: 20 (59) (Obama - 57%, Romney - 41%/Obama by 16%)
6. Maryland: 10 (69) (Obama - 62%, Romney - 36%/Obama by 26%)
7. Delaware: 3 (72) (Obama - 59%, Romney - 40%/Obama by 19%)
8. Rhode Island: 4 (76) (Obama - 63%, Romney - 35%/Obama by 28%)
9. California: 55 (131) (Obama - 59%, Romney - 39%/Obama by 20%)
10. Massachusetts: 11 (142) (Obama - 61%, Romney - 37%/Obama by 24%)
11. Washington: 12 (154) (Obama - 55%, Romney - 43%/Obama by 12%)
12. Maine: 4 (158) (Obama - 56%, Romney - 41%/Obama by 15%)
13. New Jersey: 14 (172) (Obama - 58%, Romney - 41%/Obama by 17%)
14. Connecticut: 7 (179) (Obama - 58%, Romney - 41%/Obama by 17%)
As far as straight picks go, I was a perfect 14 for 14 here (100.0%) and as far as margin of victory goes (10.1%+, I too was 14 for 14.
Strong Lean Obama - These states should go to Obama by between 5 and 10 points. If Romney wins any of them, then Obama will likely be in a world of trouble.
15. New Mexico: 5 (184) (Obama - 53%, Romney - 43%/Obama by 10%)
16. Oregon: 7 (191) (Obama - 53%, Romney - 44%/Obama by 9%)
17. Minnesota: 10 (201) (Obama - 53%, Romney - 45%/Obama by 8%)
18. Michigan: 16 (217) (Obama - 54%, Romney 45%/Obama by 9%)
Once again, I was perfect in this section on both fronts - the straight picks and margin of victory (5-10%) to push me to 18 for 18 (100.0%) on both.
Lean Obama - The following states could move to toss-up status if Romney improves in the polling there. On the other side of things, if Obama improves by a couple points, these states could move from lean Obama to strong lean or even solid Obama. At the current time, however, I see Obama winning the following states by between 3 and 9 points. He could potentially lose a couple of these states and still earn 270 electoral votes.
19. Wisconsin: 10 (227) (Obama - 53%, Romney - 46%/Obama by 7%)
20. Nevada: 6 (233) (Obama - 52%, Romney - 46%/Obama by 6%)
21. Pennsylvania: 20 (253) (Obama - 52%, Romney - 47%/Obama by 5%)
22. New Hampshire: 4 (257) (Obama - 52%, Romney - 46%/Obama by 6%)
Straight picks: 4 for 4 and 22 for 22 overall
Margin of victory: 4 for 4 (3-9%) and 22 for 22 overall
Slight Lean Obama - These four states are extremely close to being labeled as toss-ups. However, most recent polls have the President leading Romney by between 1 and 4 points. At this time, I see him winning these four states by that very margin - between 1 and 4 points. None of these states are vital for him to attain 270 electoral votes. However, if he loses 2-3 states from the "Lean Obama" category, he will need one to three of these to move past 270 electoral votes.
23. Ohio: 18 (275) (Obama - 50%, Romney - 48%/Obama by 2%)
24. Iowa: 6 (281) (Obama - 52%, Romney - 46%/Obama by 6%)
25. Virginia: 13 (294) (Obama - 51%, Romney - 48%/Obama by 3%)
26. Colorado: 9 (303) (Obama - 51%, Romney - 47%/Obama by 4%)
Straight picks: 4 for 4 and 26 for 26 overall
Margin of victory: 3 for 4 and 25 for 26 overall (dang you, Iowa!)
Solid Romney - Romney has little to no chance at losing these states. He should win these states by at least the high single ditgits.
1. Utah: 6 (6) (Romney - 73%, Obama - 25%/Romney by 48%)
2. Wyoming: 3 (9) (Romney - 69%, Obama - 28%/Romney by 41%)
3. Oklahoma: 7 (16) (Romney - 67%, Obama - 33%/Romney by 34%)
4. Idaho: 4 (20) (Romney - 65%, Obama - 33%/Romney by 32%)
5. Alabama: 9 (29) (Romney - 61%, Obama - 38%/Romney by 23%)
6. Kansas: 6 (35) (Romney - 60%, Obama - 38%/Romney by 22%)
7. Kentucky: 8 (43) (Romney - 61%, Obama - 38%/Romney by 23%)
8. Arkansas: 6 (49) (Romney - 61%, Obama - 37%/Romney by 24%)
9. West Virginia: 5 (54) (Romney - 62%, Obama - 35%/Romney by 27%)
10. Nebraska: 5 (59) (Romney - 61%, Obama - 38%/Romney by 23%)
11. Alaska: 3 (62) (Romney - 55%, Obama - 41%/Romney by 14%)
12. Louisiana: 8 (70) (Romney - 59%, Obama - 40%/Romney by 19%)
13. South Dakota: 3 (73) (Romney - 58%, Obama - 40%/Romney by 18%)
14. North Dakota: 3 (76) (Romney - 59%, Obama - 39%/Romney by 20%)
15. Tennessee: 11 (87) (Romney - 59%, Obama - 39%/Romney by 20%)
16. Mississippi: 6 (93) (Romney - 55%, Obama - 44%/Romney by 11%)
17. South Carolina: 9 (102) (Romney - 55%, Obama - 44%/Romney by 11%)
18. Texas: 38 (140) (Romney - 57%, Obama - 41%/Romney by 16%)
Straight picks: 18 for 18 and 44 for 44 overall
Margin of victory: 18 for 18 and 43 for 44 overall
Strong Lean Romney - If Obama has a great showing in any of these states, there's an outside chance he could make things interesting. The chances of that occurring is not very likely, however. If Obama were to win any of these three states, the election would be in the bag for him. Romney should win these states by between 5 and 10 points.
19. Indiana: 11 (151) (Romney - 54%, Obama - 44%/Romney by 10%)
20. Georgia: 16 (167) (Romney - 53%, Obama - 45%/Romney by 8%)
21. Montana: 3 (170) (Romney - 55%, Obama - 42%/Romney by 13%)
Straight picks: 3 for 3 and 47 for 47
Margin of victory: 2 for 3 and 45 for 47
Lean Romney - Most polls have Romney up in these two states by the high single digits, but once in a while a poll will come out where he only leads by 4-5. It's unlikely that Obama wins either state, but I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility either. Romney should win by between 3 and 9 points.
22. Missouri: 10 (180) (Romney - 54%, Obama - 44%/Romney by 10%)
23. Arizona: 11 (191) (Romney - 55%, Obama - 43%/Romney by 12%)
Straight picks: 2 for 2 and 49 for 49
Margin of victory: 0 for 2 and 45 for 49
Slight Lean Romney - Obama's early-voting numbers have been stellar in North Carolina, which has more than made up for Romney's absentee-ballot advantage. I still give Romney a slight edge there and expect him to win by between 1 and 4 points. Arizona is a mystery state. Not many saw it as a potential battleground until a couple recent polls have the president leading Romney in the state. Romney still has the advantage there, I believe, but if the Hispanic turnout is higher than anticipated, Arizona could be the steal of the election for the President and potentially place him over the 270 mark as far as electoral votes go.
24. North Carolina: 15 (206) (Romney - 51%, Obama - 48%/Romney by 3%)
Straight picks: 1 for 1 and 50 for 50
Margin of victory: 1 for 1 and 46 for 50
Toss-ups - I've now reached the point where I see Florida as a 50-50 toss-up state. I had previously labeled it "toss-up - advantage Romney," but due to multiple polls released from the sunshine state in recent days showing the two candidates in a virtual lock with one another, I now believe one could flip a coin on this state. We'll see if that changes any in my final update.
1. Florida (29) (likely Obama - 50%, Romney - 49%/Obama by 1%)
Straight picks: 0 for 1 and 50 for 51
Margin of victory: 0 for 1 and 46 for 51
Assuming that Florida gets called for Obama, that will be my only straight pick miss of this election (50 for 51 = 98.0%)
As far as the margin of victory, I will wind up 46 for 51 (90.2%).
I wasn't "perfect" as Nate Silver will be following Obama attaining Florida and its 29 electoral votes, but for this being my first year doing this, I'm quite content with my 98.0% grade (and 90.2% when it comes to exact predictions).
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/main?hpt=elec_flippertkr
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