The conference championships are now less than a week away in college football and soon thereafter, we'll officially know who will be playing in the national championship game. It's all but decided that unbeaten Notre Dame will take on the winner of the SEC Championship game between #2 Alabama and #3 Georgia. However, while it would be difficult for me to argue against Notre Dame deserving one of the two spots, I'm not entirely certain that the winner of the SEC title game is deserving of that second spot. Regardless of who wins the Alabama/Georgia game, and who gets rewarded that second spot in the BCS title game, I will clamor that a playoff would be more suitable to determine the national champion this year - of at least a four-team variety.
Going into next week's games, there are five teams with one loss from major conferences whom could try to make legitimate arguments that their team belongs in the national title game alongside Notre Dame. Following next week's games, we'll be down to 3-4 such teams, as either Georgia or Alabama will lose the SEC title game and Kansas State could potentially lose their regular season finale against Texas. For the time being, though, let's look at these five one-loss teams, see how their resume's compare with one another, and go from there.
Based on all the data I have before me, I'll now run through the four possible outcomes from this coming weekend's games between Alabama and Georgia, as well as Kansas State and Texas, and then rank the teams based on how deserving they are of facing Notre Dame in the national title game.
If Alabama and Kansas State Win
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Kansas State
If Alabama and Texas Win
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
If Georgia and Kansas State Win
1. Florida
2. Oregon
3. Kansas State
4. Georgia
If Georgia and Texas Win
1. Forida
2. Oregon
3. Georgia
As you can see, if I were to rank these five teams right now, I'd rank them as such:
1. Notre Dame
2. Florida
3. Alabama
4. Oregon
5. Kansas State
6. Georgia
This differs with the actual BCS poll, where Alabama is ranked 2nd, Georgia 3rd, Florida 4th, Oregon 5th, and Kansas State 6th.
Regardless of who wins the SEC title game, I feel that Florida is the most deserving team when it comes to facing Notre Dame in the national title game. Let me explain why.
If Alabama wins on Saturday, they will improve to 12-1 on the year. Including Georgia, they will have beaten teams with the combined record of 70-62 (.530), including 6 bowl eligible teams out of 12 (50.0%), and three ranked teams (#3 Georgia (currently), #7 LSU, and #19 Michigan. The team they lost to was 9th ranked Texas A&M. It will be a fairly strong resume, especially with a win against Georgia. However, if we don't look at the coming SEC title game, the seven SEC teams that the Crimson Tide have beaten went a combined 41-43 (.488) this year. Only three of the seven teams they've defeated are bowl eligible, and that includes 6-6 Mississippi. Their non-conference schedule wasn't anything to marvel about either, as they defeated Michigan, Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic, and I-AA Western Carolina. Excluding the I-AA school they played, Alabama's three other non-conference opponents have gone a combined 18-17 (.514) on the season.
If Georgia beats Alabama, I think they have a much weaker argument of joining Notre Dame in the national title game. Even if the Bulldogs win the SEC title game, the twelve teams they will have defeated this year went a combined 64-68 (.485). This includes 5 bowl eligible teams out of 12 (41.7%) and two ranked teams (#2 Alabama (currently) and #4 Florida). Their loss came against 10th ranked South Carolina by 28 points. Looking more deeply inside the Bulldogs' resume, and excluding the coming game, the seven SEC teams they defeated went a combined 40-44 (.476) on the season, and only three of them are bowl eligible. This also includes 6-6 Mississippi. Their non-conference schedule was even weaker than Alabama's, as they faced Buffalo, Florida Atlantic, I-AA Georgia Southern, and Georgia Tech, who (excluding the I-AA team) went a combined 13-22 (.371) on the season. Georgia also had a hard time putting away 5-7 Tennessee, winning by a touchdown, and also of beating 2-10 Kentucky, beating the Wildcats by just 5.
Let's compare those two resumes with Florida's. The eleven teams the Gators have beaten this year went a combined 75-44 (.630) on the season. This includes 7 bowl eligible teams out of 11 (63.6%) and four ranked teams (#7 LSU at home, #9 Texas A&M on the road, #10 South Carolina at home, and #13 Florida State on the road). Their one loss came to Georgia by 8 points. The Gators' non-conference schedule was more challenging than both the Crimson Tide's and Bulldogs', as their three opponents (excluding I-AA Jacksonville State) have gone a combined 25-10 (.714) on the season. Even their in-conference schedule was more difficult. Both Alabama and Georgia's SEC victims (before the conference championship) have gone slightly below .500 for the season. Florida's SEC victims have gone 50-34 (.595).
As for the other two teams - Oregon and Kansas State - both teams have faced a number of bowl eligible teams in conference, but neither had a very strong non-conference schedule, and since the two teams only play three non-conference games, the ranked opponents they defeated were few and far between. The reason I'd give Oregon a slight edge over the Wildcats is due to their losses. Oregon fell to a top ten team in overtime, and the end result was largely aided (in my opinion) by a missed call late in the 4th quarter, when the refs rewarded Stanford with a touchdown which I felt was an incompletion. Kansas State, meanwhile, has a very strong resume' except for one game - their 28 point loss at the hands of 6-5 and unranked Baylor. While, regardless of the results this coming weekend, I feel that Oregon should be part of a four-team playoff if that took place this year, I'm having a difficult time making a strong case for them to be in the national championship game. If Kansas State wins this coming weekend, I think they'd be able to make a legitimate case to be part of a four-team playoff, but like with Oregon, I'd have a hard time in being able to provide enough concrete evidence to prove they belong in the BCS title game.
Of these five teams, I feel that Florida has the strongest argument to play Notre Dame in the title game. The two arguments against them would be the fact they won't win the SEC title game and also if Georgia wins,the fact that the Gators fell to the Bulldogs in the regular season. I understand both arguments, however, when standing back and looking at the whole picture, I truly feel that Florida played the toughest non-conference schedule of the three SEC teams, the toughest conference schedule, and regardless of whether Alabama or Georgia wins on Saturday, feel they should be playing Notre Dame for the national title.
Going into next week's games, there are five teams with one loss from major conferences whom could try to make legitimate arguments that their team belongs in the national title game alongside Notre Dame. Following next week's games, we'll be down to 3-4 such teams, as either Georgia or Alabama will lose the SEC title game and Kansas State could potentially lose their regular season finale against Texas. For the time being, though, let's look at these five one-loss teams, see how their resume's compare with one another, and go from there.
Based on all the data I have before me, I'll now run through the four possible outcomes from this coming weekend's games between Alabama and Georgia, as well as Kansas State and Texas, and then rank the teams based on how deserving they are of facing Notre Dame in the national title game.
If Alabama and Kansas State Win
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Kansas State
If Alabama and Texas Win
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
If Georgia and Kansas State Win
1. Florida
2. Oregon
3. Kansas State
4. Georgia
If Georgia and Texas Win
1. Forida
2. Oregon
3. Georgia
As you can see, if I were to rank these five teams right now, I'd rank them as such:
1. Notre Dame
2. Florida
3. Alabama
4. Oregon
5. Kansas State
6. Georgia
This differs with the actual BCS poll, where Alabama is ranked 2nd, Georgia 3rd, Florida 4th, Oregon 5th, and Kansas State 6th.
Regardless of who wins the SEC title game, I feel that Florida is the most deserving team when it comes to facing Notre Dame in the national title game. Let me explain why.
If Alabama wins on Saturday, they will improve to 12-1 on the year. Including Georgia, they will have beaten teams with the combined record of 70-62 (.530), including 6 bowl eligible teams out of 12 (50.0%), and three ranked teams (#3 Georgia (currently), #7 LSU, and #19 Michigan. The team they lost to was 9th ranked Texas A&M. It will be a fairly strong resume, especially with a win against Georgia. However, if we don't look at the coming SEC title game, the seven SEC teams that the Crimson Tide have beaten went a combined 41-43 (.488) this year. Only three of the seven teams they've defeated are bowl eligible, and that includes 6-6 Mississippi. Their non-conference schedule wasn't anything to marvel about either, as they defeated Michigan, Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic, and I-AA Western Carolina. Excluding the I-AA school they played, Alabama's three other non-conference opponents have gone a combined 18-17 (.514) on the season.
If Georgia beats Alabama, I think they have a much weaker argument of joining Notre Dame in the national title game. Even if the Bulldogs win the SEC title game, the twelve teams they will have defeated this year went a combined 64-68 (.485). This includes 5 bowl eligible teams out of 12 (41.7%) and two ranked teams (#2 Alabama (currently) and #4 Florida). Their loss came against 10th ranked South Carolina by 28 points. Looking more deeply inside the Bulldogs' resume, and excluding the coming game, the seven SEC teams they defeated went a combined 40-44 (.476) on the season, and only three of them are bowl eligible. This also includes 6-6 Mississippi. Their non-conference schedule was even weaker than Alabama's, as they faced Buffalo, Florida Atlantic, I-AA Georgia Southern, and Georgia Tech, who (excluding the I-AA team) went a combined 13-22 (.371) on the season. Georgia also had a hard time putting away 5-7 Tennessee, winning by a touchdown, and also of beating 2-10 Kentucky, beating the Wildcats by just 5.
Let's compare those two resumes with Florida's. The eleven teams the Gators have beaten this year went a combined 75-44 (.630) on the season. This includes 7 bowl eligible teams out of 11 (63.6%) and four ranked teams (#7 LSU at home, #9 Texas A&M on the road, #10 South Carolina at home, and #13 Florida State on the road). Their one loss came to Georgia by 8 points. The Gators' non-conference schedule was more challenging than both the Crimson Tide's and Bulldogs', as their three opponents (excluding I-AA Jacksonville State) have gone a combined 25-10 (.714) on the season. Even their in-conference schedule was more difficult. Both Alabama and Georgia's SEC victims (before the conference championship) have gone slightly below .500 for the season. Florida's SEC victims have gone 50-34 (.595).
As for the other two teams - Oregon and Kansas State - both teams have faced a number of bowl eligible teams in conference, but neither had a very strong non-conference schedule, and since the two teams only play three non-conference games, the ranked opponents they defeated were few and far between. The reason I'd give Oregon a slight edge over the Wildcats is due to their losses. Oregon fell to a top ten team in overtime, and the end result was largely aided (in my opinion) by a missed call late in the 4th quarter, when the refs rewarded Stanford with a touchdown which I felt was an incompletion. Kansas State, meanwhile, has a very strong resume' except for one game - their 28 point loss at the hands of 6-5 and unranked Baylor. While, regardless of the results this coming weekend, I feel that Oregon should be part of a four-team playoff if that took place this year, I'm having a difficult time making a strong case for them to be in the national championship game. If Kansas State wins this coming weekend, I think they'd be able to make a legitimate case to be part of a four-team playoff, but like with Oregon, I'd have a hard time in being able to provide enough concrete evidence to prove they belong in the BCS title game.
Of these five teams, I feel that Florida has the strongest argument to play Notre Dame in the title game. The two arguments against them would be the fact they won't win the SEC title game and also if Georgia wins,the fact that the Gators fell to the Bulldogs in the regular season. I understand both arguments, however, when standing back and looking at the whole picture, I truly feel that Florida played the toughest non-conference schedule of the three SEC teams, the toughest conference schedule, and regardless of whether Alabama or Georgia wins on Saturday, feel they should be playing Notre Dame for the national title.
Comments
Post a Comment