Week 1 NFL Predictions

It's that time of year again (I know, finally!), so as I've done the past two years, I'll again predict every NFL game this season. If nothing else, I've been consistent. In the 2013-2014 season, I finished with a record of 163-92-1 (.639), and ended up with  the exact same record for the 2014-2015 season, 163-92-1 (.639). If I wind up with that same record again this year, I may call Vegas and ask if they owe me some money!

Thursday

Game: Pittsburgh at New England

Pick: Pittsburgh - I know I'll definitely be in the minority on this pick. Pittsburgh comes into this game missing a few players due to injury and suspension. However, offensively, they were one of the most explosive teams in the league last year and will be going up against a Patriots secondary that looks far inferior on paper than they did a year ago. With all the media coverage, controversy, and distractions surrounding the team and "deflategate," not to mention a more detailed analysis of "Spygate" which was published earlier today, I simply think the Steelers will be better prepared for this Thursday night game than the Patriots. Also, let's not forget the Pats have struggled in the early going in recent years. They started the season a year ago 2-2, many "experts" were claiming the Brady-Belichick run was over, before they went on to win the Super Bowl. Taking all that into consideration, I'll take the Steelers by 4.

Result: New England 28 Pittsburgh 21

Record: 0-1

Sunday

Game: Green Bay at Chicago

Pick: Green Bay - Neither defense is extraordinary (that's being kind). To put it simply, I trust Aaron Rodgers a great deal more than I trust Jay Cutler. Even with the game on the road, I'll take the Packers by 10.

Result: Green Bay 31 Chicago 23

Record: 1-1

Game: Kansas City at Houston

Pick: Kansas City - This may not be the most exciting game on paper, but it's one I'm personally looking forward to. Jamal Charles has been a stud while healthy for the Chiefs, but what they've lacked on offense is a vertical threat in the passing game, and they attained that in the off-season with former Philadelphia Eagles wideout Jeremy Maclin. It'll fun to see the Chiefs' new and improved offense against J.J. Watt and the stout Houston Texans' defense. JaDaveon Clowney didn't play much a season ago due to injury, so it'll fun to see him get a bit more playtime as well. The game should be tight throughout, but for as good as the Texans' defense is, I trust Alex Smith, Jamal Charles, Jeremy Maclin and the Kansas City Chiefs' offense a heck of a lot more than the Houston Texans' offense, especially with tailback Adrien Foster being a question mark for the game. I'm going with Kansas City by 6.

Result: Kansas City 27 Houston 20

Record: 2-1

Game: Cleveland at NY Jets

Pick: NY Jets - These are two of my least trusted organizations in all of football. So yeah, I'm going with the home team... I'll take the Jets by a field goal.

Result: NY Jets 31 Cleveland 10

Record: 3-1

Game: Indianapolis at Buffalo

Pick: Indianapolis - Buffalo was my AFC sleeper last year en route to a solid 9-7 season. I still like them defensively, but a huge question mark at quarterback has me nervous. Tyrod Taylor could potentially be a dangerous dual-threat quarterback, but unfortunately for him, Rex Ryan is now the Bills' head coach, and we all know his history when it comes to coaching offense, quarterbacks in particular. The key match-up in this game will be the Indianapolis Colts' offensive line, which was incredibly inconsistent a year ago (that's being nice) against the stout Bills' front seven. If Indy's o-line can protect Andrew Luck, he should be able to provide enough points to counter the Bills' offense. I'll take the Colts by 4.

Result: Buffalo 27 Indianapolis 14

Record: 3-2

Game: Miami at Washington

Pick: Miami - Since Ryan Tannehill became the Miami Dolphins quarterback, the team has been .500. With an improved defense this year, in large part due to the acquisition of Ndamukong Suh, Miami has a better chance to make the post-season this year than they've had in quite a while. Washington, meanwhile, is a circus much like Congress. I'll take the Dolphins on the road by a touchdown.

Result: Miami 17 Washington 10

Record: 4-2

Game: Carolina at Jacksonville

Pick: Carolina - Losing wideout Kelvin Benjamin in the pre-season was a huge loss for the Carolina Panthers. As has been the case since losing wideout Steve Smith to the Baltimore Ravens, Cam Newton will have to do things largely by himself, which will leave him more prone to getting hurt, and leave the team more prone to being inconsistent offensively. Even in saying all of that, however, I still like Carolina to beat the seemingly hapless Jaguars. I'll take the Panthers by 3.

Result: Carolina 20 Jacksonville 9

Record: 5-2

Game: Seattle at St. Louis

Pick: Seattle - St. Louis is a team to watch out for this year. While I like Seattle to win the NFC West and think San Francisco will finish in the cellar, I look for an improved Rams squad to contend for 2nd place in the division with Arizona, and with that, possibly a playoff spot. Regardless if Seattle has Cam Chancellor or not, though, I like them to win their season opener. I'll take Seattle by a touchdown.

Result: St. Louis 34 Seattle 31 OT

Record: 5-3

Game: New Orleans at Arizona

Pick: Arizona - These two teams appear to be going in opposite directions. New Orleans' defense has been mediocre (at best) for a few years now, and their once explosive offense looks slightly above average anymore. The loss of tight end Jimmy Graham will be a big one for Drew Brees and this offense. Arizona, meanwhile, has been improving ever since Bruce Arians took over the coaching duties. So long as they don't wind up resorting to their 4th-string quarterback again like they did in the playoffs last year, expect this team to again contend for a playoff spot. I'll go with the Cardinals in this one by 6.

Result: Arizona 31 New Orleans 19

Record: 6-3

Game: Detroit at San Diego

Pick: San Diego - On paper, these appear to be two evenly-matched teams. With that in mind, it's hard to go against the West Coast team hosting a team near the East Coast. I'll take the Chargers by a field goal.

Result: San Diego 33 Detroit 28

Record: 7-3

Game: Tennessee at Tampa Bay

Pick: Tennessee - This shouldn't be an interesting match-up. Tampa and Tennessee were two of the worst teams in all the NFL last year, which is why the Bucs were able to Jameis Winston with the #1 overall pick and the Titans were able to draft Marcus Mariota with the #2 pick. While Winston may have the greater potential long-term, I think Mariota will be the steadier, more consistent of the two in their rookie seasons. Given that, I'll take the Titans by 3.

Result: Tennessee 42 Tampa Bay 14

Record: 8-3

Game: Cincinnati at Oakland

Pick: Cincinnati - This pick makes me slightly nervous. Oakland should be an improved team this year, and with the game at home, I'm tempted to go with them. However, until I see that improvement on the field, I'm hesitant to show a great deal of confidence in them. Cincinnati has been fairly solid on both sides of the ball in recent years, well, until the post-season rolls around. Lucky for them, this is Week 1 of the regular season. I'll go with the Bengals by 4.

Result: Cincinnati 33 Oakland 13

Record: 9-3

Game: Baltimore at Denver

Pick: Denver - Expect the healthy Peyton Manning to be back to his old ways, the Broncos defense to be new and improved, and that, in conjunction with the high altitude, to play factors in the Broncos opening-week victory. I'll take Denver by 6.

Result: Denver 19 Baltimore 13

Record: 10-3

Game: NY Giants at Dallas

Pick: NY Giants - Along with my Pittsburgh-over-New-England pick, here's my other big upset pick of the week (well, as far as the NFL is concerned). I've heard many ESPN analysts claim that Dallas is a team to be reckoned with, a team that will again battle Philadelphia for the NFC East title. I'm not so convinced, however. While Dallas does boast one of the best offensive lines in the league and Tony Romo is a capable quarterback, the biggest reason for Dallas' success last year was their change in offensive strategy - going from passing seemingly 85% of the time to placing a greater emphasis on the running game (DeMarco Murray in particular). This wore many defenses out in the 3rd and 4th quarters, and not only that, kept the Cowboys' below-average defense on the sidelines for longer than they were accustomed in previous years. DeMarco Murray is now in Philadelphia, while former Oakland Raider Darren McFadden is now in Dallas. Dallas' defense will likely continue to be sub-par, their running game probably won't be nearly as effective as it was last season, which could very well lead the team to go back to their pass-first-pass-second-pass-third ways, which proved to be inconsistent and largely unsuccessful time and time again. With it being his second year in the West Coast offense, expect Eli Manning's numbers to improve, especially with a healthy stable of exciting young wideouts. I'm going with the upset here. Expect a lot of points to be scored. I'm going with the Giants by 4.

Result: Dallas 27 NY Giants 26

Record: 10-4

Monday

Game: Philadelphia at Atlanta

Pick: Philadelphia - Philadelphia is one of the most intriguing, if not the most intriguing team to watch this year. Never before have I seen a team that went 10-6 the previous two seasons do a complete roster makeover like the Eagles did this off-season. Gone are Michael Vick, Nick Foles, Matt Barkley, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and in are Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez, Stephen Morris, DeMarco Murray, Nelson Agholor, and Jordan Matthews. While I don't think the Eagles have as much speed and athleticism in year 3 of the Chip Kelly experience as they had in years 1 and 2, he seems to believe his year 3 roster is more to his liking than either of his first two. While Philadelphia's offense is a bit of a mystery to me, their defense should be improved from a year ago. With Atlanta, while they'll be able to rack up some yards and score some points via the passing game, their sub-par defense will likely allow far more yards and points throughout the course of the season - starting in Week 1. I'll go with the new-look Eagles by a touchdown.

Result: Atlanta 26 Philadelphia 24

Record: 10-5

Game: Minnesota at San Francisco

Pick: Minnesota - I can't remember a worse off-season than the one the 49ers just experienced. San Francisco lost the following this past off-season: Head coach Jim Harbaugh, tailback Frank Gore, guard Mike Iupati, tackle Anthony Davis, linebacker Patrick Willis, defensive end Justin Smith, linebacker Chris Borland, and defensive end Aldon Smith, among others. Look for Mike Zimmer to continue his defensive wizardry this year for the Vikings, for their offense to improve, and for them to beat the 49ers on the road by 4.

Result: San Francisco 20 Minnesota 3

Record: 10-6

Week 1 Record: 10-6 (.625)

Overall Record: 10-6 (.625)