I wonder when the last time was that the #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament went to the dance with six losses. That's what we have this year with #1 Louisville of the Big East. That provides the perfect illustration of this year's college basketball season. It has been one of chaos, one where the #1 teams have played musical chairs more often than Gerard Butler and Katherine Heigl star in awful movies, and one where it's difficult to see a favorite to win the championship.
Once the brackets were announced on Sunday night, I began feeling a migraine coming on, and once I actually sat down to look at the brackets, that migraine was in full-effect. How crazy are the brackets? Let me tell you...
- The Pittsburgh Panthers of the Big East, after finishing the year ranked #20 in the AP poll, were rewarded with an 8-seed, and will face 9-seed Wichita State in the West region. Eight-seeds would tend to go to teams ranked between 29 and 32, so Pitt's #20 ranking got downgraded 9-12 spots for them to move down from a 5-seed to an 8-seed.
- Even crazier, the Oregon Ducks of the Pac-12, after winning the Pac-12 conference tournament, and finishing the year ranked #25 in the AP poll, received a 12-seed in the Midwest, where they will be facing 5-seed Oklahoma State in the first round. Twelve-seeds would tend to go to teams ranked between 45 and 48, so Oregon's #25 ranking got downgraded an incredible 20-23 spots for them to move down from a 7-seed to 12-seed.
First-round upsets I'll likely pick
Midwest: 12-seed Oregon over 5-seed Oklahoma State - I like how the Ducks are playing right now, think they were the most under-seeded team in the entire tournament, and feel they'll have an awful lot to play for in their first-round game.
10-seed Cincinnati over 7-seed Creighton - This is a classic match-up between a solid defensive, but lackluster offensive team in Cincinnati going up against a solid offensive, but lackluster defensive team in Creighton. As is typical, I will be going with the solid defensive team to beat the solid offensive team. Bad defenses can often times make bad offenses look good and good defenses can make good offenses look mediocre.
West: 11-seed Belmont over 6-seed Arizona - Belmont can rain the threes in the bunches and Arizona can allow them in the bunches as well. With Belmont's previous tournament success, they won't be at all intimidated of the Wildcats, while the Wildcats could very well look past Belmont, so much so, that it wins up costing them a chance to reach the round of 32.
South: 13-seed South Dakota State over 3-seed Michigan - Michigan is 6-6 in their past 12 games, have looked suspect on defense, and have lacked firepower outside of standpoint Trey Burke on offense. The Jackrabbits are a fun, offensively-efficient team, that could give the suddenly under-achieving Wolverines more than they can handle at game's end.
11-seed Minnesota over 6-seed UCLA - The Gophers have struggled in recent weeks, but are far more talented than their 11-seed would suggest. UCLA will be short-handed due to some key injuries, and I think this will help Tubby Smith's Gophers move on to the round of 32.
East: 9-seed Temple over 8-seed North Carolina State - NC State has been far too inconsistent this year for me to have much faith in them. Temple, meanwhile, can score in the bunches, which should be enough to overtake the Wolfpack.
10-seed Colorado over 7-seed Illinois - On paper, this is a bad match-up for Illinois. Colorado's strengths run counter to Illinois' weaknesses, which will make it awfully difficult for the Illini to pull out a victory in this first-round game. They'll need to step up their game and successfully play outside their comfort zone in order to be successful. At this point in the season, that's extremely difficult to accomplish.
Other potential first-round upsets I've yet to decide upon
Midwest: 9-seed Missouri over 8-seed Colorado State - I'm leaning toward CSU in this one, largely due to the fact they're one of the best rebounding teams in the country and carry with them five senior starters. However, with Missouri's up-and-down pace, if they're able to get on a roll hitting some shots, they could definitely come out of this one with a victory.
West: 10-seed Iowa State over 7-seed Notre Dame - Again, I think I'm leaning toward the favorite in this one. The two teams' drastically different styles of offense will make for an interesting watch. If Notre Dame starts hitting the trifecta in their slow-down kind of offense, this will make it incredibly difficult for Iowa State to come back. However, if the threes aren't falling for the Irish, they may wind up having to play Iowa State-style of basketball and play with a little more speed, which is definitely not what they're accustomed to.
South: 9-seed Villanova over 8-seed North Carolina - I like how Carolina is playing basketball right now, so I'm leaning toward them, but Villanova is also playing some of their best basketball of the season and shouldn't be counted out.
East: 11-seed Bucknell over 6-seed Butler - I'm having a difficult time with this game. Given Butler's success this season and in tournaments' past, I may give them an ever so slight edge. However, Bucknell is not a team to be taken lightly and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them win this game.
14-seed Davidson over 3-seed Marquette - Yet again, I'm leaning toward the favorite. Marquette has had a solid season, but they haven't struck me as a top 10-caliber team that won't have to worry about being upset in the first round. Davidson has had some success upsetting teams in recent tournaments, and if they have some success from the 3-point line, that could happen again.
Potential Sleepers
Midwest: 4-seed St. Louis - 4-seeds can't be sleepers, right? Not usually, but let's remember - these are the Saint Louis Billikens of the Atlantic-10 conference. St. Louis is like the San Antonio Spurs of college basketball this year. They're all about fundamentals. While the Billikens may not be the most exciting team to watch, they're efficient. They play defense extremely well, are efficient on the offensive side of the ball, rebound well, and don't turn the ball over much. Their style of play can frustrate many teams and if they reach that point, I could see them frustrating Rick Pitino's Louisville Cardinals to the point of pulling off the upset and moving on to the Elite-8.
6-seed Memphis - It's not often a team that goes unbeaten in conference play and winds up with 30 wins in the regular season gets stuck with a 6-seed, but that's exactly where the Memphis Tigers are this season. If they win their first game, they could give 3-seed Michigan State headaches in the round of 32. Michigan State hasn't fared too well against fast-paced teams, and that's exactly what Memphis is.
West: 8-seed Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh is reminiscent of St. Louis and of most other Pittsburgh teams from the past decade. They present a slow, but efficient offense, rebound well, play great defense, and don't turn the ball over much. They're also extremely physical, which is exactly the kind of team top-seeded Gonzaga doesn't match up with very well. If Pitt takes care of Wichita State in the first-round, guess who they'll be playing in the round of 32? Gonzaga.
5-seed Wisconsin - Wisconsin is another good-fundamentals kind of team. They're a bit more explosive on the offensive side of the ball than St. Louis or Pittsburgh, especially when it comes to the 3-point shot. They've already beaten 2-seed Ohio State once this year, match up well with 1-seed Gonzaga.
South: 8-seed North Carolina - We all knew it was just going to be a matter of time before Roy Williams improved his young squad to a point where they're now seen as a legitimate potential bracket-busting team. If they get past 9-seed Villanova in the first round, they'll likely square off against Williams' former team, 1-seed Kansas, in the round of 32. Kansas has been playing great basketball too of late, but let's not forget, this is the same Kansas team that lost to then winless-in-conference TCU not too terribly long ago. If UNC limits the turnovers and plays well defensively, they could have a legitimate shot of derailing the Jayhawks.
5-seed VCU - Don't look now, but Virginia Commonwealth may have a better team this year than they did in 2011 when they reached the Final Four. VCU is a nightmare match-up for most teams, largely due to their fast pace, press defense, and excellent three-point shooting. If they wind up playing Kansas in the sweet 16, they will have an immediate advantage, due to the Jayhawks not possessing a true point guard and placing him up against VCU's press defense. That's never a good recipe for VCU's opponent.
East: 9-seed Temple - Temple, when hot, can score with anybody. If they make it past 8-seed NC State in the first round, they'll likely meet up with 1-seed Indiana in the round of 32. While Indiana can score a boatload of points as well, I wouldn't completely count out Temple. The Hoosiers, while arguably the best and most well-rounded team, are just 3-3 in their past six games.
6-seed Butler - While the Bulldogs may have their work cut out for them with 11-seed Bucknell in the round of 64, if they make it past that game, they have the potential of going on another tremendous tournament run.
A very real possibility regarding the #1 seeds
After going through my bracket, I see it as a very real possibility that none of the four 1-seeds will make it to the Final Four in Atlanta. Gonzaga would have a difficult time beating the likes of Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, or Ohio State if paired up with any of those three teams. Kansas would struggle with Virginia Commonwealth or Georgetown if they should meet. I could see Indiana falling to Miami (Florida). Lastly, Louisville could struggle with the Duke/Michigan State winner, if those those teams make it that far in the tournament. St. Louis could also give them problems. So yeah, on that note, let the chaos continue! Oh, and best of luck with your picks. After making mine and before a single game has played, I think it's safe to say my bracket is already busted...
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/bracket
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings
Once the brackets were announced on Sunday night, I began feeling a migraine coming on, and once I actually sat down to look at the brackets, that migraine was in full-effect. How crazy are the brackets? Let me tell you...
- The Pittsburgh Panthers of the Big East, after finishing the year ranked #20 in the AP poll, were rewarded with an 8-seed, and will face 9-seed Wichita State in the West region. Eight-seeds would tend to go to teams ranked between 29 and 32, so Pitt's #20 ranking got downgraded 9-12 spots for them to move down from a 5-seed to an 8-seed.
- Even crazier, the Oregon Ducks of the Pac-12, after winning the Pac-12 conference tournament, and finishing the year ranked #25 in the AP poll, received a 12-seed in the Midwest, where they will be facing 5-seed Oklahoma State in the first round. Twelve-seeds would tend to go to teams ranked between 45 and 48, so Oregon's #25 ranking got downgraded an incredible 20-23 spots for them to move down from a 7-seed to 12-seed.
First-round upsets I'll likely pick
Midwest: 12-seed Oregon over 5-seed Oklahoma State - I like how the Ducks are playing right now, think they were the most under-seeded team in the entire tournament, and feel they'll have an awful lot to play for in their first-round game.
10-seed Cincinnati over 7-seed Creighton - This is a classic match-up between a solid defensive, but lackluster offensive team in Cincinnati going up against a solid offensive, but lackluster defensive team in Creighton. As is typical, I will be going with the solid defensive team to beat the solid offensive team. Bad defenses can often times make bad offenses look good and good defenses can make good offenses look mediocre.
West: 11-seed Belmont over 6-seed Arizona - Belmont can rain the threes in the bunches and Arizona can allow them in the bunches as well. With Belmont's previous tournament success, they won't be at all intimidated of the Wildcats, while the Wildcats could very well look past Belmont, so much so, that it wins up costing them a chance to reach the round of 32.
South: 13-seed South Dakota State over 3-seed Michigan - Michigan is 6-6 in their past 12 games, have looked suspect on defense, and have lacked firepower outside of standpoint Trey Burke on offense. The Jackrabbits are a fun, offensively-efficient team, that could give the suddenly under-achieving Wolverines more than they can handle at game's end.
11-seed Minnesota over 6-seed UCLA - The Gophers have struggled in recent weeks, but are far more talented than their 11-seed would suggest. UCLA will be short-handed due to some key injuries, and I think this will help Tubby Smith's Gophers move on to the round of 32.
East: 9-seed Temple over 8-seed North Carolina State - NC State has been far too inconsistent this year for me to have much faith in them. Temple, meanwhile, can score in the bunches, which should be enough to overtake the Wolfpack.
10-seed Colorado over 7-seed Illinois - On paper, this is a bad match-up for Illinois. Colorado's strengths run counter to Illinois' weaknesses, which will make it awfully difficult for the Illini to pull out a victory in this first-round game. They'll need to step up their game and successfully play outside their comfort zone in order to be successful. At this point in the season, that's extremely difficult to accomplish.
Other potential first-round upsets I've yet to decide upon
Midwest: 9-seed Missouri over 8-seed Colorado State - I'm leaning toward CSU in this one, largely due to the fact they're one of the best rebounding teams in the country and carry with them five senior starters. However, with Missouri's up-and-down pace, if they're able to get on a roll hitting some shots, they could definitely come out of this one with a victory.
West: 10-seed Iowa State over 7-seed Notre Dame - Again, I think I'm leaning toward the favorite in this one. The two teams' drastically different styles of offense will make for an interesting watch. If Notre Dame starts hitting the trifecta in their slow-down kind of offense, this will make it incredibly difficult for Iowa State to come back. However, if the threes aren't falling for the Irish, they may wind up having to play Iowa State-style of basketball and play with a little more speed, which is definitely not what they're accustomed to.
South: 9-seed Villanova over 8-seed North Carolina - I like how Carolina is playing basketball right now, so I'm leaning toward them, but Villanova is also playing some of their best basketball of the season and shouldn't be counted out.
East: 11-seed Bucknell over 6-seed Butler - I'm having a difficult time with this game. Given Butler's success this season and in tournaments' past, I may give them an ever so slight edge. However, Bucknell is not a team to be taken lightly and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them win this game.
14-seed Davidson over 3-seed Marquette - Yet again, I'm leaning toward the favorite. Marquette has had a solid season, but they haven't struck me as a top 10-caliber team that won't have to worry about being upset in the first round. Davidson has had some success upsetting teams in recent tournaments, and if they have some success from the 3-point line, that could happen again.
Potential Sleepers
Midwest: 4-seed St. Louis - 4-seeds can't be sleepers, right? Not usually, but let's remember - these are the Saint Louis Billikens of the Atlantic-10 conference. St. Louis is like the San Antonio Spurs of college basketball this year. They're all about fundamentals. While the Billikens may not be the most exciting team to watch, they're efficient. They play defense extremely well, are efficient on the offensive side of the ball, rebound well, and don't turn the ball over much. Their style of play can frustrate many teams and if they reach that point, I could see them frustrating Rick Pitino's Louisville Cardinals to the point of pulling off the upset and moving on to the Elite-8.
6-seed Memphis - It's not often a team that goes unbeaten in conference play and winds up with 30 wins in the regular season gets stuck with a 6-seed, but that's exactly where the Memphis Tigers are this season. If they win their first game, they could give 3-seed Michigan State headaches in the round of 32. Michigan State hasn't fared too well against fast-paced teams, and that's exactly what Memphis is.
West: 8-seed Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh is reminiscent of St. Louis and of most other Pittsburgh teams from the past decade. They present a slow, but efficient offense, rebound well, play great defense, and don't turn the ball over much. They're also extremely physical, which is exactly the kind of team top-seeded Gonzaga doesn't match up with very well. If Pitt takes care of Wichita State in the first-round, guess who they'll be playing in the round of 32? Gonzaga.
5-seed Wisconsin - Wisconsin is another good-fundamentals kind of team. They're a bit more explosive on the offensive side of the ball than St. Louis or Pittsburgh, especially when it comes to the 3-point shot. They've already beaten 2-seed Ohio State once this year, match up well with 1-seed Gonzaga.
South: 8-seed North Carolina - We all knew it was just going to be a matter of time before Roy Williams improved his young squad to a point where they're now seen as a legitimate potential bracket-busting team. If they get past 9-seed Villanova in the first round, they'll likely square off against Williams' former team, 1-seed Kansas, in the round of 32. Kansas has been playing great basketball too of late, but let's not forget, this is the same Kansas team that lost to then winless-in-conference TCU not too terribly long ago. If UNC limits the turnovers and plays well defensively, they could have a legitimate shot of derailing the Jayhawks.
5-seed VCU - Don't look now, but Virginia Commonwealth may have a better team this year than they did in 2011 when they reached the Final Four. VCU is a nightmare match-up for most teams, largely due to their fast pace, press defense, and excellent three-point shooting. If they wind up playing Kansas in the sweet 16, they will have an immediate advantage, due to the Jayhawks not possessing a true point guard and placing him up against VCU's press defense. That's never a good recipe for VCU's opponent.
East: 9-seed Temple - Temple, when hot, can score with anybody. If they make it past 8-seed NC State in the first round, they'll likely meet up with 1-seed Indiana in the round of 32. While Indiana can score a boatload of points as well, I wouldn't completely count out Temple. The Hoosiers, while arguably the best and most well-rounded team, are just 3-3 in their past six games.
6-seed Butler - While the Bulldogs may have their work cut out for them with 11-seed Bucknell in the round of 64, if they make it past that game, they have the potential of going on another tremendous tournament run.
A very real possibility regarding the #1 seeds
After going through my bracket, I see it as a very real possibility that none of the four 1-seeds will make it to the Final Four in Atlanta. Gonzaga would have a difficult time beating the likes of Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, or Ohio State if paired up with any of those three teams. Kansas would struggle with Virginia Commonwealth or Georgetown if they should meet. I could see Indiana falling to Miami (Florida). Lastly, Louisville could struggle with the Duke/Michigan State winner, if those those teams make it that far in the tournament. St. Louis could also give them problems. So yeah, on that note, let the chaos continue! Oh, and best of luck with your picks. After making mine and before a single game has played, I think it's safe to say my bracket is already busted...
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/bracket
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings
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