With just 37 primaries and caucuses left on the slate (21 for Democrats and 16 for Republicans), I thought I'd take a deeper look at our current numbers and the road ahead for the two parties and their presidential hopefuls.
Current Numbers
Republican Party
1) Donald Trump: 755 delegates (61.0% of the way to 1,237)
2) Ted Cruz: 517 delegates (41.8% of the way to 1,237)
(335 delegates between: Marco Rubio (171), John Kasich (143), Uncommitted (9), Ben Carson (8), and Jeb Bush (4)
Democratic Party
1) Hillary Clinton: 1,279 delegates (469 superdelegates) (53.6% of the way to 2,383 without superdelegates, 73.4% of the way to 2,383 with superdelegates)
2) Bernie Sanders: 1,027 delegates (31 superdelegates) (43.1% of the way to 2,383 without superdelegates, 44.4% of the way to 2,383 without superdelegates)
The Road Ahead
April 9: Wyoming Caucus (D), 18 delegates - Sanders has been outperforming Clinton in nearly every Caucus state, so I'll predict he wins 12 of the 18 delegates in this state.
Numbers: Clinton 1,285, Sanders 1,039 (I'll exclude the superdelegates for now)
April 19: New York Primaries, 291 delegates for Democrats, 95 for Republicans - Trump has a huge lead in his home state and it's being predicted he could come away with all 95 delegates, while Sanders has made some strides, but is predicted to be on the short-end when all is said and done. I'll play it semi-safe here, give 80 delegates to Trump, 15 to Cruz, 150 for Clinton, 141 for Sanders.
Numbers: Trump 835, Cruz 532/Clinton 1,435; Sanders 1,180
April 26:
- Connecticut Primaries, 70 delegates for Democrats, 28 for Republicans - Both Trump and Sanders have done well in the Northeast, so I'll give them both a slight advantage, especially Trump. I'll give Trump 20, Cruz 8, Sanders 40, Clinton 30
Numbers: Trump 855, Cruz 540/Clinton 1,465; Sanders 1,220
- Delaware Primaries, 31 delegates for Democrats, 16 for Republicans (winner-take-all) - I'm guessing the delegates will be split fairly evenly here for Democrats and Trump has the edge in the GOP. Since Sanders is trailing, however, I'll give him a slight edge to make things interesting.
Numbers: Trump 871, Cruz 540/Clinton 1,480; Sanders 1,236
- Maryland Primaries, 118 delegates for Democrats, 38 for Republicans (winner-take-all) - Polls currently have Clinton winning this one fairly handily and Trump winning by approximately 10 percent, so I'll base my numbers off those findings.
Numbers: Trump 909, Cruz 540/Clinton 1,550; Sanders 1,284
- Pennsylvania Primaries, 210 delegates for Democrats, 71 for Republicans - Clinton and Trump both lead in this state as well, but Kasich and Sanders could potentially close the gap. I don't see Cruz having much of a chance, however. In any case, I'll give Trump 50 delegates, Cruz 21, Clinton 120, and Sanders 90
Numbers: Trump 959, Cruz 561/Clinton 1,670; Sanders 1,374
- Rhode Island Primaries, 33 delegates for Democrats, 19 for Republicans - This is Sanders and Trump territory, so I'll give the two of them the advantage here.
Numbers: Trump 971, Cruz 568/Clinton 1,685; Sanders 1,392
May 3: Indiana Primaries, 92 delegates for Democrats, 57 for Republicans (winner-take-all) - I have a feeling this will be a close race in the Democratic Party. There hasn't been a great deal of recent polling for the Republican Party in this state, but the most recent polls show Trump winning, so I'll give him the advantage until I hear otherwise.
Numbers: Trump 1,028, Cruz: 568/Clinton 1,735; Sanders 1,434
May 7: Guam Democratic Primary, 12 delegates - I'm guessing Clinton will do well here.
Numbers: Clinton 1,745; Sanders 1,436
May 10: Nebraska Republican Primary, 36 delegates - This part of the country has been kinder to Cruz than Trump, so I'll predict he wins 25 delegates to Trump's 11.
Numbers: Trump 1,039; Cruz 593
May 17:
- Oregon Primaries, 73 delegates for Democrats, 28 delegates for Republicans - This appears to be Sanders territory. It could be a state where John Kasich has a chance, but given the fact he's a distant third in the standings, I'll give the slight edge to the less conservative Trump over Cruz.
Numbers: Trump 1,055; Cruz 605/Clinton 1,775; Sanders 1,479
- Washington Republican Primary, 44 delegates - Cruz is an early favorite over Trump, but I have a difficult time believing such a progressive state would favor the Texas senator in this contest, so I'll split the delegates 50/50.
Numbers: Trump 1,077; Cruz 627
June 4: Virgin Islands Democratic Caucus, 12 delegates - This might be a Caucus Clinton could win, so I'll give her the slight edge.
Numbers: Clinton 1,782; 1,484
June 7:
- California Primaries, 546 delegates for Democrats, 172 delegates for Republicans - Clinton and Trump have 10-point edges in the current polls, so I'll base my predictions off those for the time being.
Numbers: Trump 1,177; Cruz 700/Clinton 2,082; Sanders 1,730
- Montana Primaries, 27 delegates for Democrats, 27 delegates for Republicans (winner-take-all) - I'll give a slight advantage to Sanders and Cruz here. Trump hasn't fared well in this part of the country.
Numbers: Trump 1,177; Cruz 700/Clinton 2,094; Sanders 1,745
- New Jersey Primaries, 142 delegates for Democrats, 51 delegates for Republicans (winner-take-all) - I think this will be a fairly even contest on the Democratic side, but give a slight edge to Clinton. It's Trump territory on the other side of the spectrum.
Numbers: Trump 1,228; Cruz 700/Clinton 2,174; Sanders 1,807
- New Mexico Primaries, 43 delegates for Democrats, 24 delegates for Republicans - I'm going to predict close victories for Clinton and Cruz here.
Numbers: Trump 1,238; Cruz 714/Clinton 2,199; Sanders 1,825
- North Dakota Democratic Caucus, 23 delegates - If it's a Caucus, it's likely a Sanders win.
Numbers: Clinton 2,207; Sanders 1,840
- South Dakota Primaries, 25 delegates for Democrats, 29 delegates for Republicans (winner-take-all) - This part of the country hasn't been as kind to Trump or Clinton as other states, so I'll go with Cruz and Sanders.
Numbers: Trump 1,238; Cruz 743/Clinton 2,211; Sanders 1,838
June 14: D.C. Democratic Primary, 46 delegates - Chances are Clinton will win this one fairly handily.
Numbers: Clinton 2,236; Sanders 1,849
Final Numbers
Republican Party
1) Donald Trump: 1,238 delegates
2) Ted Cruz: 743 delegates
Goal: 1,237 delegates
Democratic Party
1) Hillary Clinton: 2,236 delegates (2,705 including superdelegates)
2) Bernie Sanders: 1,849 delegates (1,880 including superdelegates)
Goal: 2,383 delegates
In other words, it's going to be incredibly difficult for Bernie Sanders to defeat Hillary Clinton, yet it's also going to be quite a task for her to reach 2,383 delegates without the aid of superdelegates. On the other side of the aisle, if Trump wins Indiana, it's going to be nail-biting time for him and the rest of the GOP when it comes to his goal of reaching 1,237 delegates. If he loses the Hoosier state, he'll need to vastly over-perform in multiple others in order to reach the magical 1,237. For the time being, I'll predict a general election featuring Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, but I wouldn't put any money on it either.
http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-primary-delegate-count/
http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-presidential-primary-schedule-calendar/
Current Numbers
Republican Party
1) Donald Trump: 755 delegates (61.0% of the way to 1,237)
2) Ted Cruz: 517 delegates (41.8% of the way to 1,237)
(335 delegates between: Marco Rubio (171), John Kasich (143), Uncommitted (9), Ben Carson (8), and Jeb Bush (4)
Democratic Party
1) Hillary Clinton: 1,279 delegates (469 superdelegates) (53.6% of the way to 2,383 without superdelegates, 73.4% of the way to 2,383 with superdelegates)
2) Bernie Sanders: 1,027 delegates (31 superdelegates) (43.1% of the way to 2,383 without superdelegates, 44.4% of the way to 2,383 without superdelegates)
The Road Ahead
April 9: Wyoming Caucus (D), 18 delegates - Sanders has been outperforming Clinton in nearly every Caucus state, so I'll predict he wins 12 of the 18 delegates in this state.
Numbers: Clinton 1,285, Sanders 1,039 (I'll exclude the superdelegates for now)
April 19: New York Primaries, 291 delegates for Democrats, 95 for Republicans - Trump has a huge lead in his home state and it's being predicted he could come away with all 95 delegates, while Sanders has made some strides, but is predicted to be on the short-end when all is said and done. I'll play it semi-safe here, give 80 delegates to Trump, 15 to Cruz, 150 for Clinton, 141 for Sanders.
Numbers: Trump 835, Cruz 532/Clinton 1,435; Sanders 1,180
April 26:
- Connecticut Primaries, 70 delegates for Democrats, 28 for Republicans - Both Trump and Sanders have done well in the Northeast, so I'll give them both a slight advantage, especially Trump. I'll give Trump 20, Cruz 8, Sanders 40, Clinton 30
Numbers: Trump 855, Cruz 540/Clinton 1,465; Sanders 1,220
- Delaware Primaries, 31 delegates for Democrats, 16 for Republicans (winner-take-all) - I'm guessing the delegates will be split fairly evenly here for Democrats and Trump has the edge in the GOP. Since Sanders is trailing, however, I'll give him a slight edge to make things interesting.
Numbers: Trump 871, Cruz 540/Clinton 1,480; Sanders 1,236
- Maryland Primaries, 118 delegates for Democrats, 38 for Republicans (winner-take-all) - Polls currently have Clinton winning this one fairly handily and Trump winning by approximately 10 percent, so I'll base my numbers off those findings.
Numbers: Trump 909, Cruz 540/Clinton 1,550; Sanders 1,284
- Pennsylvania Primaries, 210 delegates for Democrats, 71 for Republicans - Clinton and Trump both lead in this state as well, but Kasich and Sanders could potentially close the gap. I don't see Cruz having much of a chance, however. In any case, I'll give Trump 50 delegates, Cruz 21, Clinton 120, and Sanders 90
Numbers: Trump 959, Cruz 561/Clinton 1,670; Sanders 1,374
- Rhode Island Primaries, 33 delegates for Democrats, 19 for Republicans - This is Sanders and Trump territory, so I'll give the two of them the advantage here.
Numbers: Trump 971, Cruz 568/Clinton 1,685; Sanders 1,392
May 3: Indiana Primaries, 92 delegates for Democrats, 57 for Republicans (winner-take-all) - I have a feeling this will be a close race in the Democratic Party. There hasn't been a great deal of recent polling for the Republican Party in this state, but the most recent polls show Trump winning, so I'll give him the advantage until I hear otherwise.
Numbers: Trump 1,028, Cruz: 568/Clinton 1,735; Sanders 1,434
May 7: Guam Democratic Primary, 12 delegates - I'm guessing Clinton will do well here.
Numbers: Clinton 1,745; Sanders 1,436
May 10: Nebraska Republican Primary, 36 delegates - This part of the country has been kinder to Cruz than Trump, so I'll predict he wins 25 delegates to Trump's 11.
Numbers: Trump 1,039; Cruz 593
May 17:
- Oregon Primaries, 73 delegates for Democrats, 28 delegates for Republicans - This appears to be Sanders territory. It could be a state where John Kasich has a chance, but given the fact he's a distant third in the standings, I'll give the slight edge to the less conservative Trump over Cruz.
Numbers: Trump 1,055; Cruz 605/Clinton 1,775; Sanders 1,479
- Washington Republican Primary, 44 delegates - Cruz is an early favorite over Trump, but I have a difficult time believing such a progressive state would favor the Texas senator in this contest, so I'll split the delegates 50/50.
Numbers: Trump 1,077; Cruz 627
June 4: Virgin Islands Democratic Caucus, 12 delegates - This might be a Caucus Clinton could win, so I'll give her the slight edge.
Numbers: Clinton 1,782; 1,484
June 7:
- California Primaries, 546 delegates for Democrats, 172 delegates for Republicans - Clinton and Trump have 10-point edges in the current polls, so I'll base my predictions off those for the time being.
Numbers: Trump 1,177; Cruz 700/Clinton 2,082; Sanders 1,730
- Montana Primaries, 27 delegates for Democrats, 27 delegates for Republicans (winner-take-all) - I'll give a slight advantage to Sanders and Cruz here. Trump hasn't fared well in this part of the country.
Numbers: Trump 1,177; Cruz 700/Clinton 2,094; Sanders 1,745
- New Jersey Primaries, 142 delegates for Democrats, 51 delegates for Republicans (winner-take-all) - I think this will be a fairly even contest on the Democratic side, but give a slight edge to Clinton. It's Trump territory on the other side of the spectrum.
Numbers: Trump 1,228; Cruz 700/Clinton 2,174; Sanders 1,807
- New Mexico Primaries, 43 delegates for Democrats, 24 delegates for Republicans - I'm going to predict close victories for Clinton and Cruz here.
Numbers: Trump 1,238; Cruz 714/Clinton 2,199; Sanders 1,825
- North Dakota Democratic Caucus, 23 delegates - If it's a Caucus, it's likely a Sanders win.
Numbers: Clinton 2,207; Sanders 1,840
- South Dakota Primaries, 25 delegates for Democrats, 29 delegates for Republicans (winner-take-all) - This part of the country hasn't been as kind to Trump or Clinton as other states, so I'll go with Cruz and Sanders.
Numbers: Trump 1,238; Cruz 743/Clinton 2,211; Sanders 1,838
June 14: D.C. Democratic Primary, 46 delegates - Chances are Clinton will win this one fairly handily.
Numbers: Clinton 2,236; Sanders 1,849
Final Numbers
Republican Party
1) Donald Trump: 1,238 delegates
2) Ted Cruz: 743 delegates
Goal: 1,237 delegates
Democratic Party
1) Hillary Clinton: 2,236 delegates (2,705 including superdelegates)
2) Bernie Sanders: 1,849 delegates (1,880 including superdelegates)
Goal: 2,383 delegates
In other words, it's going to be incredibly difficult for Bernie Sanders to defeat Hillary Clinton, yet it's also going to be quite a task for her to reach 2,383 delegates without the aid of superdelegates. On the other side of the aisle, if Trump wins Indiana, it's going to be nail-biting time for him and the rest of the GOP when it comes to his goal of reaching 1,237 delegates. If he loses the Hoosier state, he'll need to vastly over-perform in multiple others in order to reach the magical 1,237. For the time being, I'll predict a general election featuring Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, but I wouldn't put any money on it either.
http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-primary-delegate-count/
http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-presidential-primary-schedule-calendar/
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