Week 11 NFL Picks

Before I make my picks, let me just say that, in 11 weeks of picking games, this was by far the most difficult. In 15 games slated for Week 11, I only felt there was one sure-fire winner and just two pretty good bets. So, in saying that, here we go...

Thursday

Game: Indianapolis at Tennessee 

Pick: Tennessee - Yes, just four days after losing to the worst team in football (Jacksonville), I'm picking the Tennessee Titans to beat the Indianapolis Colts. Ever since losing Reggie Wayne, the Colts have struggled - barely sneaking by 2-7 Houston and getting trounced by 4-6 St. Louis by 30 points at home. With the Titans featuring a sound pass defense to counter the Colts' strength on offense, as well as a solid running game, I like for them to rebound from their disappointing loss with a win at home on Thursday night. The Titans by 3.

Result: Indianapolis 30 Tennessee 27

Record: 0-1

Sunday

Game: NY Jets at Buffalo

Pick: NY Jets - Geno Smith and the Jets have been an every other week kind of team to this point in the season. After beating the New Orleans Saints two weeks ago, though, they had a bye week, so I'm going to go against this trend due to that. The Bills and rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel have struggled against the better defenses this year, and I expect nothing different this time around. The Jets by 4.

Result: Buffalo 37 NY Jets 14

Record: 0-2

Game: Baltimore at Chicago

Pick: Chicago - Both of these teams are extremely difficult to figure out this season. They've been quite inconsistent on both sides of the ball and had trouble establishing team identities due to that. Both teams showed signs of improving on defense this past week, though. If that continues, expect for a dogfight in this one. The Baltimore Ravens have appeared to be a far different (worse) team on the road than at home, however. So long as either Jay Cutler or Josh McCown is healthy and starting for the Bears, I like for them to eek out a victory. Bears by a field goal.

Result: Chicago 23 Baltimore 20 OT

Record: 1-2

Game: Cleveland at Cincinnati

Pick: Cincinnati - After being heralded as one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL by many analysts, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has been picked off six times in the past two games - both losses. The Bengals are still in first place, however, and with a win at home against in-state rival Cleveland, they could be well on their way to an AFC North title. Expect for the Browns to keep it close, but for the Bengals to come through by game's end. I like Cincy by 7.

Result: Cincinnati 41 Cleveland 20 

Record: 2-2

Game: Washington at Philadelphia

Pick: Philadelphia - Coming off two rather dominant wins, with lots of momentum, and playing at home, all signs point to the Philadelphia Eagles winning this one. However, in this division rivalry, anything is possible. While Washington has improved mightily on the offensive side of the ball since their opening week loss to these same Eagles 33-27, they're still one of the worst teams in the league on defense. With Nick Foles and the Eagles offense starting to click it seems, and their defense showing signs of improvement in recent weeks, I like for Philly to win their third straight, and in doing that, end their drought at home with a victory against the Redskins. Eagles by 10.

Result: Philadelphia 24 Washington 16

Record: 3-2

Game: Detroit at Pittsburgh

Pick: Detroit - Both teams are difficult to figure out at this point in the season. Detroit is perhaps one or two wins away from showing the league they are truly legit, yet they could be one or two losses away from showcasing they may be a year or two away. The Steelers, meanwhile, may be a win or two away from showing the league they can still be competitive in the AFC North, but may also be one or two losses away from letting the league know they're has-beens and will need to go into rebuilding mode. While I could see Pittsburgh pull off the upset here, I think they'll have a hard time matching up with the Lions when they have the ball, and in the end, Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush will just be too much. I like the Lions by 10.

Result: Pittsburgh 37 Detroit 27

Record: 3-3

Game: Atlanta at Tampa Bay

Pick: Tampa Bay - This game might as well be called The We've Given Up Bowl. The teams are a combined 3-15, and have appeared to give up on their head coaches at times this year. While I initially went with Atlanta, upon reviewing the teams' health situations, I'm going to change my pick and go with the home team - the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa will get into Matt Ryan's face early and often, and without a healthy Roddy White, Julio Jones, or Tony Gonzalez to throw to, this is bound to get Ryan and the Falcons offense into trouble. In conjunction with that is a very poor Falcons defense, which may make the Tampa Bay running backs seem like Pro Bowlers when they're anything but. It should be close and low-scoring, but I like the Bucs by a field goal.

Result: Tampa Bay 41 Atlanta 28

Record: 4-3

Game: Arizona at Jacksonville

Pick: Arizona - Sure, Jacksonville may have won a game, but I still see it as an aberration. So long as Carson Palmer doesn't turn the ball over a bunch, I have a hard time seeing the Jaguars offense doing much against the underrated Cardinals defense. Arizona by 10.

Result: Arizona 27 Jacksonville 14

Record: 5-3

Game: Oakland at Houston

Pick: Houston - Oakland has played very poorly in recent weeks and worse yet, it appears as if quarterback Terrelle Pryor may be out for multiple weeks with a knee injury. Houston, meanwhile, after inserting Case Keenum in at quarterback, has been playing teams tough, yet been finding ways to lose. They've lost their past three games by a combined 7 points to teams with a 20-9 record. I like for Keenum and the Texans to finally get over the hump with a big, emotional win in this one. The Texans by 14.

Result: Oakland 28 Houston 23

Record: 5-4

Game: San Diego at Miami

Pick: San Diego - Saying Miami is a mess is like saying skydiving without a parachute is stupid. Even so, though, the Dolphins found a way to end their four-game losing streak with a big Thursday night win against Cincinnati, and pending the result of their Monday night game against winless Tampa Bay, they could be heading into this contest the winners of two straight. In saying that, though, I've been quite impressed with the high level of efficiency the San Diego Chargers offense has played with this year. Quarterback Philip Rivers is having one of his best seasons in recent memory and more times than not, the Chargers have dominated in time of possession. Expect for that trend to continue, for Miami's offense to get flustered as a result, and for mistakes to cost them. I like the Chargers 10.

Result: Miami 20 San Diego 16

Record: 5-5

Game: San Francisco at New Orleans

Pick: San Francisco - I had thought about going with New Orleans at home in this one, but given Jim Harbaugh's great record following losses and how the teams match up, I have to give the slight edge to the 49ers. Look for Frank Gore, Colin Kaepernick, and company to run the ball well against the Saints defense, to control the clock, and force the Saints offense to rush things a time or two - so much so, it results in turnovers. I like the 49ers by 4.

Result: New Orleans 23 San Francisco 20

Record: 5-6

Game: Green Bay at NY Giants

Pick: NY Giants - Green Bay is simply a different team without Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. If he plays, I'll pick them approximately 75% of the time. If he doesn't, I'll pick them roughly 20% of the time. Unless I hear that he's going to play in this contest, I'll give the edge to the home team Giants, who have won three in a row, and still aren't out of the NFC (L)East race. 

Result: NY Giants 27 Green Bay 13

Record: 6-6

Game: Minnesota at Seattle 

Pick: Seattle - For the first time in three weeks, Seattle again looked like a Super Bowl contender, as they throttled the Atlanta Falcons this past Sunday. Minnesota is coming off a victory as well, but scoring 34 points against the horrendous defense of the Washington Redskins at home is a much different task than putting up points against the Seattle Seahawks on the road. I like Seattle by 17.

Result: Seattle 41 Minnesota 20

Record: 7-6

Game: Kansas City at Denver

Pick: Denver - This pick is dependent upon the health of quarterback Peyton Manning. If Manning appears well suited to play, then I give the edge to the home team Denver Broncos. If, however, Manning doesn't play or isn't very healthy when he does, I'll likely switch my pick to the Chiefs. For the time being, though, I'll go with the Broncos by a touchdown.

Result: Denver 27 Kansas City 17

Record: 8-6

Monday

Game: New England at Carolina

Pick: Carolina - If there's a time when Tom Brady becomes an average quarterback, it's when defenders are in his face, and that's one thing the Carolina Panthers love to do. Just ask 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who was sacked six times this past Sunday by the Panthers defense. The Patriots defense, meanwhile, is banged up, and may have a tough time getting a good handle on Carolina's ground game. I like for the Panthers, led by their elite defense, to continue the streak with a big Monday night win against the Patriots. Panthers by 4.

Result: Carolina 24 New England 20

Record: 9-6

Week 11 Record: 9-6 (.600)

Overall: 101-61 (.623)