Thursday
Game: Green Bay at Detroit
Pick: Detroit - The Packers are just a completely different team without Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. In addition to that, I think the shortened week helps the struggling Lions at home. I like the Lions by 10.
Result: Detroit 40 Green Bay 10
Record: 1-0
Game: Oakland at Dallas
Pick: Dallas - I could potentially change this pick if Terrelle Pryor and Darren McFadden can both go for the Raiders against the awful Cowboys front-seven. For the time being, however, I look for the home-team Cowboys to improve to 7-5 with a win on Thanksgiving Day. A loss here will likely all but end the Raiders' Wild Card hopes.
Result: Dallas 31 Oakland 24
Record: 2-0
Game: Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Pick: Pittsburgh - As always, this is a difficult game to pick. While the Ravens have been much better at home this year than on the road, I like how the Steelers are playing right now - much more so than the Ravens. Ben Roethlisberger has been playing very good football for the Steelers, and they appeared to find some semblance of a running game against Cleveland this past weekend. As always, I look for the game to be low-scoring and close, but like for the Steelers to even their record at 6-6 with a huge road win against AFC North rival Baltimore. Steelers by 3.
Result: Baltimore 22 Pittsburgh 20
Record: 2-1
Sunday
Game: Jacksonville at Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland - Just three weeks ago, both Jacksonville and Tampa Bay were 0-8. The two Florida teams are 5-1 since that time, but I look for that good run to end next Sunday. No matter who is playing at quarterback for the Browns, they should be able to win a close, low-scoring game against the Jaguars.
Result: Jacksonville 32 Cleveland 28
Record: 2-2
Game: Tennessee at Indianapolis
Pick: Tennessee - I just do not like how the Indianapolis Colts are playing right now. In two of their past three games, the Colts have been outscored 78-19 against St. Louis and Arizona - teams with a combined record of 12-10. Just two weeks ago, they found themselves down 17-6 to these same Titans at halftime. Lucky for them, Tennessee made some critical mistakes in the second half to allow the Colts to come back and win by 3. The Colts have looked atrocious on both sides of the ball and Tennessee, at 5-6, is fighting for their playoff lives. I like for the Titans to win their second straight with a big 3-point win on the road against the struggling Colts.
Result: Indianapolis 22 Tennessee 14
Record: 2-3
Game: Chicago at Minnesota
Pick: Chicago - While Minnesota's offense has been playing more efficiently the past three weeks, their defense has struggled all season, and for whatever reason, they've had trouble closing out games this year. Up 23-7 against Green Bay early in the 4th quarter Sunday, the Vikings were sent to overtime, and eventually tied. Until they show me they can close out games, I'll be hard-pressed to pick them again.
Result: Minnesota 23 Chicago 20 OT
Record: 2-4
Game: Miami at NY Jets
Pick: Miami - While the Jets have a pretty stingy defense, their offense has regressed - in particular, rookie quarterback Geno Smith. Miami, meanwhile, has played fairly well since word broke about Richie Incognito and Jonathan Martin. Both teams head into this game at 5-6 and the loser will definitely need some help in order to nab the 6th and final playoff spot. It should be a tight and low-scoring game, but I trust Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill over Geno Smith when it comes to not turning the ball over. I'll go with the Dolphins by a field goal.
Result: Miami 23 NY Jets 3
Record: 3-4
Game: Arizona at Philadelphia
Pick: Arizona - Philly has won three consecutive games, but they were against Oakland, a beaten up Green Bay squad, and Washington. They'll need to step up their game on both sides of the ball if they want to get past the hot Arizona Cardinals, who, along with featuring a very underrated defense, have learned how to play offense again. I like the Cardinals by 10.
Result: Philadelphia 24 Arizona 21
Record: 3-5
Game: Tampa Bay at Carolina
Pick: Carolina - Carolina better not look past the 3-8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers or else they could be looking at a loss. Tampa, after starting the year 0-8, have reeled off three straight wins, and even though they're out of the playoff mix, are playing with a sense of passion and purpose. Unfortunately for them, Carolina features arguably the best defense in football and so long as Cam Newton doesn't get careless with the football, I like for the Panthers to continue their winning ways with a 6-point win in this one.
Result: Carolina 27 Tampa Bay 6
Record:4-5
Game: New England at Houston
Pick: New England - I've just about given up on the Houston Texans. They could be up by 28 points with 7 minutes left and would still probably find a way to lose. They're lucky their defense is solid, so games don't tend to be very lopsided. Given all that, I like the Pats to win by a couple of touchdowns.
Result: New England 34 Houston 31
Record: 5-5
Game: Atlanta at Buffalo
Pick: Buffalo - Like with Houston, I've about given up on the Atlanta Falcons. Their offense has been banged up all year. Their defense has been one of the worst in the league. While Buffalo is still a year or two away from being competitive week in and week out, they still have an outside shot at nabbing the final Wild Card spot this year, and with their young and explosive offense, I like for the Bills to improve to 5-7 with a win against the ever-struggling Falcons.
Result: Atlanta 34 Buffalo 31 OT
Record: 5-6
Game: St. Louis at San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco - I like how the St. Louis Rams are playing right now and would likely go with them if the game were played in St. Louis. With the game on the road, however, I look for the 49ers to win a tight, low-scoring affair. I like the Niners by 4.
Result: San Francisco 23 St. Louis 13
Record: 6-6
Game: Denver at Kansas City
Pick: Denver - While Kansas City has been a great story this year, they appear to be showing their true colors of late, after losing to Denver 27-17 and then to San Diego at home by the final score of 41-38. While their defense is still seen as one of the best in the league, they've allowed 68 points the past two weeks against two of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league in Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers. I look for that trend to continue in this game, as the Broncos look to win the AFC West with a tough 7-point win on the road in Arrowhead.
Result: Denver 35 Kansas City 28
Record: 7-6
Game: Cincinnati at San Diego
Pick: Cincinnati - This was arguably the toughest pick for me to make. I love how Philip Rivers is playing for the San Diego Chargers, but think he'll face more pressure against the stout and well-rested Bengals defense. The only thing that makes me nervous about this pick is Andy Dalton, who has thrown so many interceptions of late, he even found a way to throw a pair during the team's off week this past weekend. I think that week off will help he and the offense, however - enough to pull out a 3-point win on the road.
Result: Cincinnati 17 San Diego 10
Record: 8-6
Game: NY Giants at Washington
Pick: NY Giants - Even in a 24-21 loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, the Giants found a running game, which they lacked all season prior to that. Washington's defense has been bad all year and I don't look for that to change in this game. I like for the Giants to win for the fifth time in the past six games with a 4-point win on the road in this nation's capital.
Result: NY Giants 24 Washington 17
Record: 9-6
Monday
Game: New Orleans at Seattle
Pick: Seattle - This game could very well be for the top-spot in the NFC. If the game were played in New Orleans, I'd likely go with the Saints, but with it in Seattle and arguably the loudest crowd in any NFL stadium, I'll go with the Seahawks at home by a touchdown.
Result: Seattle 34 New Orleans 7
Record: 10-6
Week 13: 10-6 (.625)
Overall: 118-73-1 (.618)
Game: Green Bay at Detroit
Pick: Detroit - The Packers are just a completely different team without Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. In addition to that, I think the shortened week helps the struggling Lions at home. I like the Lions by 10.
Result: Detroit 40 Green Bay 10
Record: 1-0
Game: Oakland at Dallas
Pick: Dallas - I could potentially change this pick if Terrelle Pryor and Darren McFadden can both go for the Raiders against the awful Cowboys front-seven. For the time being, however, I look for the home-team Cowboys to improve to 7-5 with a win on Thanksgiving Day. A loss here will likely all but end the Raiders' Wild Card hopes.
Result: Dallas 31 Oakland 24
Record: 2-0
Game: Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Pick: Pittsburgh - As always, this is a difficult game to pick. While the Ravens have been much better at home this year than on the road, I like how the Steelers are playing right now - much more so than the Ravens. Ben Roethlisberger has been playing very good football for the Steelers, and they appeared to find some semblance of a running game against Cleveland this past weekend. As always, I look for the game to be low-scoring and close, but like for the Steelers to even their record at 6-6 with a huge road win against AFC North rival Baltimore. Steelers by 3.
Result: Baltimore 22 Pittsburgh 20
Record: 2-1
Sunday
Game: Jacksonville at Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland - Just three weeks ago, both Jacksonville and Tampa Bay were 0-8. The two Florida teams are 5-1 since that time, but I look for that good run to end next Sunday. No matter who is playing at quarterback for the Browns, they should be able to win a close, low-scoring game against the Jaguars.
Result: Jacksonville 32 Cleveland 28
Record: 2-2
Game: Tennessee at Indianapolis
Pick: Tennessee - I just do not like how the Indianapolis Colts are playing right now. In two of their past three games, the Colts have been outscored 78-19 against St. Louis and Arizona - teams with a combined record of 12-10. Just two weeks ago, they found themselves down 17-6 to these same Titans at halftime. Lucky for them, Tennessee made some critical mistakes in the second half to allow the Colts to come back and win by 3. The Colts have looked atrocious on both sides of the ball and Tennessee, at 5-6, is fighting for their playoff lives. I like for the Titans to win their second straight with a big 3-point win on the road against the struggling Colts.
Result: Indianapolis 22 Tennessee 14
Record: 2-3
Game: Chicago at Minnesota
Pick: Chicago - While Minnesota's offense has been playing more efficiently the past three weeks, their defense has struggled all season, and for whatever reason, they've had trouble closing out games this year. Up 23-7 against Green Bay early in the 4th quarter Sunday, the Vikings were sent to overtime, and eventually tied. Until they show me they can close out games, I'll be hard-pressed to pick them again.
Result: Minnesota 23 Chicago 20 OT
Record: 2-4
Game: Miami at NY Jets
Pick: Miami - While the Jets have a pretty stingy defense, their offense has regressed - in particular, rookie quarterback Geno Smith. Miami, meanwhile, has played fairly well since word broke about Richie Incognito and Jonathan Martin. Both teams head into this game at 5-6 and the loser will definitely need some help in order to nab the 6th and final playoff spot. It should be a tight and low-scoring game, but I trust Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill over Geno Smith when it comes to not turning the ball over. I'll go with the Dolphins by a field goal.
Result: Miami 23 NY Jets 3
Record: 3-4
Game: Arizona at Philadelphia
Pick: Arizona - Philly has won three consecutive games, but they were against Oakland, a beaten up Green Bay squad, and Washington. They'll need to step up their game on both sides of the ball if they want to get past the hot Arizona Cardinals, who, along with featuring a very underrated defense, have learned how to play offense again. I like the Cardinals by 10.
Result: Philadelphia 24 Arizona 21
Record: 3-5
Game: Tampa Bay at Carolina
Pick: Carolina - Carolina better not look past the 3-8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers or else they could be looking at a loss. Tampa, after starting the year 0-8, have reeled off three straight wins, and even though they're out of the playoff mix, are playing with a sense of passion and purpose. Unfortunately for them, Carolina features arguably the best defense in football and so long as Cam Newton doesn't get careless with the football, I like for the Panthers to continue their winning ways with a 6-point win in this one.
Result: Carolina 27 Tampa Bay 6
Record:4-5
Game: New England at Houston
Pick: New England - I've just about given up on the Houston Texans. They could be up by 28 points with 7 minutes left and would still probably find a way to lose. They're lucky their defense is solid, so games don't tend to be very lopsided. Given all that, I like the Pats to win by a couple of touchdowns.
Result: New England 34 Houston 31
Record: 5-5
Game: Atlanta at Buffalo
Pick: Buffalo - Like with Houston, I've about given up on the Atlanta Falcons. Their offense has been banged up all year. Their defense has been one of the worst in the league. While Buffalo is still a year or two away from being competitive week in and week out, they still have an outside shot at nabbing the final Wild Card spot this year, and with their young and explosive offense, I like for the Bills to improve to 5-7 with a win against the ever-struggling Falcons.
Result: Atlanta 34 Buffalo 31 OT
Record: 5-6
Game: St. Louis at San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco - I like how the St. Louis Rams are playing right now and would likely go with them if the game were played in St. Louis. With the game on the road, however, I look for the 49ers to win a tight, low-scoring affair. I like the Niners by 4.
Result: San Francisco 23 St. Louis 13
Record: 6-6
Game: Denver at Kansas City
Pick: Denver - While Kansas City has been a great story this year, they appear to be showing their true colors of late, after losing to Denver 27-17 and then to San Diego at home by the final score of 41-38. While their defense is still seen as one of the best in the league, they've allowed 68 points the past two weeks against two of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league in Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers. I look for that trend to continue in this game, as the Broncos look to win the AFC West with a tough 7-point win on the road in Arrowhead.
Result: Denver 35 Kansas City 28
Record: 7-6
Game: Cincinnati at San Diego
Pick: Cincinnati - This was arguably the toughest pick for me to make. I love how Philip Rivers is playing for the San Diego Chargers, but think he'll face more pressure against the stout and well-rested Bengals defense. The only thing that makes me nervous about this pick is Andy Dalton, who has thrown so many interceptions of late, he even found a way to throw a pair during the team's off week this past weekend. I think that week off will help he and the offense, however - enough to pull out a 3-point win on the road.
Result: Cincinnati 17 San Diego 10
Record: 8-6
Game: NY Giants at Washington
Pick: NY Giants - Even in a 24-21 loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, the Giants found a running game, which they lacked all season prior to that. Washington's defense has been bad all year and I don't look for that to change in this game. I like for the Giants to win for the fifth time in the past six games with a 4-point win on the road in this nation's capital.
Result: NY Giants 24 Washington 17
Record: 9-6
Monday
Game: New Orleans at Seattle
Pick: Seattle - This game could very well be for the top-spot in the NFC. If the game were played in New Orleans, I'd likely go with the Saints, but with it in Seattle and arguably the loudest crowd in any NFL stadium, I'll go with the Seahawks at home by a touchdown.
Result: Seattle 34 New Orleans 7
Record: 10-6
Week 13: 10-6 (.625)
Overall: 118-73-1 (.618)
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