We're still about a week away from knowing which four teams will be going to the college football playoff, but I'm already beginning to hear murmurs of Ohio State being able to sneak its way back into the 4-team format, but unless complete and total chaos ensues on Saturday, I don't think that should happen.
Living near Columbus, Ohio, hopefully this blog doesn't get me into any trouble, but whether we're looking at resumés or the eye-test, I don't think Ohio State has proven itself to be one of the four best teams in the country.
First off, let's look over Ohio State's resumé. The first ranked team the Buckeyes played since the national championship game last year was in game #11 of this season, a loss to visiting Michigan State. Their only win against a ranked team this season came in their final game against Michigan. In the Buckeye's 11 wins this season, only four have come against teams with winning records (8-4 Northern Illinois, 7-5 Western Michigan, 7-5 Penn State, and 9-3 Michigan), and only two have come against teams with winning records from the power 5 conferences (7-5 Penn State and 9-3 Michigan). Overall, Ohio State's 11 wins have come against teams with a record of 63-70 (also beating: 6-6 Virginia Tech, 3-10 Hawaii, 6-6 Indiana, 3-9 Maryland, 4-8 Rutgers, 5-7 Minnesota, and 5-7 Illinois). An 11-1 season is nothing at which to scoff, but even so, Ohio State's resumé falls short in making them worthy of a playoff berth.
When it comes to the eye-test, yes, the recency effect is incredibly important, and this was most certainly the case in Ohio State's 42-13 win over Michigan, which was quite impressive. However, when standing back and looking at the full context of that win and the bigger picture, the eye-test tells a significantly different story. Ohio State led Michigan 14-10 at halftime, and still within striking distance, the Wolverines' starting quarterback went down with an injury, never to return. Yes, it's quite possible Ohio State would have won the game regardless of who was behind center, but the score and allure of the victory may have been drastically different. When looking at the entire season, Ohio State's most impressive overall performance was likely their 49-7 win over 4-8 Rutgers. Virginia Tech battled the Buckeyes tooth-and-nail in the season opener until Hokies quarterback Michael Brewer suffered a game-ending injury, at which point the Bucks took control. Ohio State struggled with 3-10 Hawaii until late in the 2nd half. OSU was anything but impressive against the two MAC teams they faced, Northern Illinois and Western Michigan, winning the former by a single touchdown and the latter by a misleading margin. Ohio State struggled to put away 6-6 Indiana, beating the Hoosiers by a touchdown. A 3-9 Maryland team, who struggled for most of the year to score, racked up 28 points on the Buckeyes, keeping things close early in the 2nd half, until the Bucks pulled away. Penn State ran the ball with ease on the Buckeyes defense, but failed to translate that into points. The 5-7 Minnesota Golden Gophers provided another solid challenge to Ohio State, playing the then #1 team to the end, losing by a pair touchdowns. The Bucks' offense continued to look sluggish against 5-7 Illinois. It's not inconceivable to say Ohio State would have been shutout against Michigan State if the Spartans hadn't turned the ball over twice deep in their own territory. Lastly, Michigan played Ohio State tight for over a half, but were hampered by their own mistakes on both sides of the ball, as well as a game-ending injury to their starting quarterback. So, once again, is an 11-1 record impressive? Yes. But, over the course of this 12-game season, did Ohio State pass my eye-test in seeing them as one of the four best teams in all of college football? No.
Of course, in saying all this, there's still a chance I could change my mind on the matter - if chaos ensues on Saturday. Two out of the four playoff spots are locks at this point: Oklahoma, who won the Big XII outright and won't be playing a conference title game, and the winner of the Big Ten title game between Michigan State and Iowa. That leaves open two spots. If Clemson and Alabama both win their respective conference title games, then the playoff committee's job will be an easy one (Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma, Michigan State/Iowa). However, while I see it as a long shot for Alabama to lose to Florida in the SEC Championship game, I do see it as quite possible that Clemson could lose to the red-hot North Carolina Tar Heels in the ACC Championship game. If that happens, then what? If that happens and Stanford beats USC to win the Pac-12 Championship, Stanford could very ironically surpass the Buckeyes in the final playoff poll. I say this is ironic because the most controversial decision made by the playoff committee last year was jumping Ohio State past Big XII co-champions TCU and Baylor in the final poll, due in large part to the Buckeyes winning their conference title game, while the Horned Frogs and Bears were co-champs of their conference. If Stanford falls to USC on Saturday, though, which is quite possible, will the committee go against their past quotes of favoring conference champions over those who didn't win their conference and take Ohio State over North Carolina, or will they jump the Tar Heels past the Buckeyes? Both teams' resumés are fairly similar, so as the committee has said in the past, a conference championship is often the tie-breaker, and could very well reward the then 12-1 Tar Heels the 4th and final playoff spot. If 2-loss Florida pulls off the unlikely and upends Alabama on Saturday, though, in conjunction with Clemson and Stanford falling, then and only then do I see Ohio State as being worthy of the 4-team playoff (#1 Oklahoma, #2 Michigan State/Iowa, #3 North Carolina, #4 Ohio State). Regardless of what the end results are, though, I'm just hoping for some great football games over the weekend!
Living near Columbus, Ohio, hopefully this blog doesn't get me into any trouble, but whether we're looking at resumés or the eye-test, I don't think Ohio State has proven itself to be one of the four best teams in the country.
First off, let's look over Ohio State's resumé. The first ranked team the Buckeyes played since the national championship game last year was in game #11 of this season, a loss to visiting Michigan State. Their only win against a ranked team this season came in their final game against Michigan. In the Buckeye's 11 wins this season, only four have come against teams with winning records (8-4 Northern Illinois, 7-5 Western Michigan, 7-5 Penn State, and 9-3 Michigan), and only two have come against teams with winning records from the power 5 conferences (7-5 Penn State and 9-3 Michigan). Overall, Ohio State's 11 wins have come against teams with a record of 63-70 (also beating: 6-6 Virginia Tech, 3-10 Hawaii, 6-6 Indiana, 3-9 Maryland, 4-8 Rutgers, 5-7 Minnesota, and 5-7 Illinois). An 11-1 season is nothing at which to scoff, but even so, Ohio State's resumé falls short in making them worthy of a playoff berth.
When it comes to the eye-test, yes, the recency effect is incredibly important, and this was most certainly the case in Ohio State's 42-13 win over Michigan, which was quite impressive. However, when standing back and looking at the full context of that win and the bigger picture, the eye-test tells a significantly different story. Ohio State led Michigan 14-10 at halftime, and still within striking distance, the Wolverines' starting quarterback went down with an injury, never to return. Yes, it's quite possible Ohio State would have won the game regardless of who was behind center, but the score and allure of the victory may have been drastically different. When looking at the entire season, Ohio State's most impressive overall performance was likely their 49-7 win over 4-8 Rutgers. Virginia Tech battled the Buckeyes tooth-and-nail in the season opener until Hokies quarterback Michael Brewer suffered a game-ending injury, at which point the Bucks took control. Ohio State struggled with 3-10 Hawaii until late in the 2nd half. OSU was anything but impressive against the two MAC teams they faced, Northern Illinois and Western Michigan, winning the former by a single touchdown and the latter by a misleading margin. Ohio State struggled to put away 6-6 Indiana, beating the Hoosiers by a touchdown. A 3-9 Maryland team, who struggled for most of the year to score, racked up 28 points on the Buckeyes, keeping things close early in the 2nd half, until the Bucks pulled away. Penn State ran the ball with ease on the Buckeyes defense, but failed to translate that into points. The 5-7 Minnesota Golden Gophers provided another solid challenge to Ohio State, playing the then #1 team to the end, losing by a pair touchdowns. The Bucks' offense continued to look sluggish against 5-7 Illinois. It's not inconceivable to say Ohio State would have been shutout against Michigan State if the Spartans hadn't turned the ball over twice deep in their own territory. Lastly, Michigan played Ohio State tight for over a half, but were hampered by their own mistakes on both sides of the ball, as well as a game-ending injury to their starting quarterback. So, once again, is an 11-1 record impressive? Yes. But, over the course of this 12-game season, did Ohio State pass my eye-test in seeing them as one of the four best teams in all of college football? No.
Of course, in saying all this, there's still a chance I could change my mind on the matter - if chaos ensues on Saturday. Two out of the four playoff spots are locks at this point: Oklahoma, who won the Big XII outright and won't be playing a conference title game, and the winner of the Big Ten title game between Michigan State and Iowa. That leaves open two spots. If Clemson and Alabama both win their respective conference title games, then the playoff committee's job will be an easy one (Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma, Michigan State/Iowa). However, while I see it as a long shot for Alabama to lose to Florida in the SEC Championship game, I do see it as quite possible that Clemson could lose to the red-hot North Carolina Tar Heels in the ACC Championship game. If that happens, then what? If that happens and Stanford beats USC to win the Pac-12 Championship, Stanford could very ironically surpass the Buckeyes in the final playoff poll. I say this is ironic because the most controversial decision made by the playoff committee last year was jumping Ohio State past Big XII co-champions TCU and Baylor in the final poll, due in large part to the Buckeyes winning their conference title game, while the Horned Frogs and Bears were co-champs of their conference. If Stanford falls to USC on Saturday, though, which is quite possible, will the committee go against their past quotes of favoring conference champions over those who didn't win their conference and take Ohio State over North Carolina, or will they jump the Tar Heels past the Buckeyes? Both teams' resumés are fairly similar, so as the committee has said in the past, a conference championship is often the tie-breaker, and could very well reward the then 12-1 Tar Heels the 4th and final playoff spot. If 2-loss Florida pulls off the unlikely and upends Alabama on Saturday, though, in conjunction with Clemson and Stanford falling, then and only then do I see Ohio State as being worthy of the 4-team playoff (#1 Oklahoma, #2 Michigan State/Iowa, #3 North Carolina, #4 Ohio State). Regardless of what the end results are, though, I'm just hoping for some great football games over the weekend!
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