Whenever I see a shift in some state poll data which could potentially alter the state of the race, even if to the slightest degree, I'll update my electoral college projections. From this point forward, I will order the states for each candidate from the state they're most likely to win to the state which is most likely to wind up being a toss-up.
Solid Obama - all of these states (and D.C.) should go Obama's direction by at the very least, the upper single digits and in many cases, well over 10 points. I don't see any way that Romney wins any of these 17 states (including D.C.).
1. Washington, D.C.: 3 electoral votes (3 overall)
2. Hawaii: 4 (7)
3. Vermont: 3 (10)
4. New York: 29 (39)
5. Illinois: 20 (59)
6. Maryland: 10 (69)
7. Delaware: 3 (72)
8. Rhode Island: 4 (76)
9. California: 55 (131)
10. Massachusetts: 11 (142)
11. Washington: 12 (154)
12. Maine: 4 (158)
13. New Jersey: 14 (172)
14. Connecticut: 7 (179)
15. New Mexico: 5 (184)
16. Oregon: 7 (191)
17. Minnesota: 10 (201)
Strong Lean Obama - This should go to Obama by between 5 and 10 points. If Romney wins this state, then Obama is in a world of trouble.
18. Michigan: 16 (217)
Lean Obama - The following states could move to toss-up status if Romney improves in the polling there. On the other side of things, if Obama improves by a couple points, these states could move from lean Obama to strong lean or even solid Obama. At the current time, however, I see Obama winning the following states by between 3 and 9 points. He could potentially lose a couple of these states and still earn 270 electoral votes.
19. Pennsylvania: 20 (237)
20. Nevada: 6 (243)
21. Wisconsin: 10 (253)
22. Ohio: 18 (271)
Slight Lean Obama - These three states are extremely close to being labeled as toss-ups. However, most recent polls have the President leading Romney by between 1 and 4 points. At this time, I see him winning these three states by that very margin - between 1 and 4 points. None of these states are vital for him to attain 270 electoral votes. However, if he loses 2-3 states from the "Lean Obama" category, he will need one to three of these to move past 270 electoral votes.
23. New Hampshire: 4 (275)
24. Iowa: 6 (281)
25. Virginia: 13 (294)
Solid Romney - Romney has little to no chance at losing these states. He should win these states by at least the high single ditgits.
1. Utah: 6 (6)
2. Wyoming: 3 (9)
3. Oklahoma: 7 (16)
4. Idaho: 4 (20)
5. Alabama: 9 (29)
6. Kansas: 6 (35)
7. Kentucky: 8 (43)
8. Arkansas: 6 (49)
9. West Virginia: 5 (54)
10. Nebraska: 5 (59)
11. Alaska: 3 (62)
12. Louisiana: 8 (70)
13. South Dakota: 3 (73)
14. North Dakota: 3 (76)
15. Tennessee: 11 (87)
16. Mississippi: 6 (93)
17. South Carolina: 9 (102)
18. Texas: 38 (140)
Strong Lean Romney - If Obama has a great showing in any of these states, there's an outside chance he could make things interesting. The chances of that occurring is not very likely, however. If Obama were to win any of these three states, the election would be in the bag for him. Romney should win these states by between 5 and 10 points.
19. Indiana: 11 (151)
20. Georgia: 16 (167)
21. Montana: 3 (170)
Lean Romney - Most polls have Romney up in Missouri by the high single digits, but once in a while a poll will come out where he only leads by 4-5. It's unlikely that Obama wins this state, but I wouldn't completely rule it out. Romney should win by between 3 and 9 points.
22. Missouri: 10 (180)
Slight Lean Romney - Obama's early-voting numbers have been stellar in North Carolina, which has more than made up for Romney's absentee-ballot advantage. I still give Romney a slight edge there and expect him to win by between 1 and 4 points. Arizona is a mystery state. Not many saw it as a potential battleground until a couple recent polls have the president leading Romney in the state. Romney still has the advantage there, I believe, but if the Hispanic turnout is higher than anticipated, Arizona could be the steal of the election for the President and potentially place him over the 270 mark as far as electoral votes go.
23. Arizona: 11 (191)
24. North Carolina: 15 (206)
Toss-ups - I might give Florida a current grade of "very slight lean Romney," but regardless of the outlier that was the Mason-Dixon poll that showed Romney with a 7-point lead in the state, most every other poll has the two neck and neck. Colorado is a true flip of the coin at this point in the race.
1. Colorado (9)
2. Florida (29)
Solid Obama: 201 electoral votes
Strong Lean Obama: 16 electoral votes (217 total)
Lean Obama: 54 electoral votes (271 total)
Slight Lean Obama: 23 electoral votes (294 total)
Solid Romney: 140 electoral votes
Strong Lean Romney: 30 electoral votes (170 total)
Lean Romney: 10 electoral votes (180 total)
Slight Lean Romney: 26 electoral votes (206 total)
Toss-ups: 38 electoral votes
If I had to predict the outcome right at this very second, I'd give Romney a slight edge in Florida and believe that Colorado is a pure toss-up at the moment. With Florida, Romney would have 235 electoral votes compared to 294 for Obama. If Colorado went to Romney, he'd ultimately wind up with 244 electoral votes, 50 fewer than the president. If Obama won the Rocky Mountain state, he'd eclipse the 300 mark at 303 electoral votes, which would be 68 more than his opponent.
Solid Obama - all of these states (and D.C.) should go Obama's direction by at the very least, the upper single digits and in many cases, well over 10 points. I don't see any way that Romney wins any of these 17 states (including D.C.).
1. Washington, D.C.: 3 electoral votes (3 overall)
2. Hawaii: 4 (7)
3. Vermont: 3 (10)
4. New York: 29 (39)
5. Illinois: 20 (59)
6. Maryland: 10 (69)
7. Delaware: 3 (72)
8. Rhode Island: 4 (76)
9. California: 55 (131)
10. Massachusetts: 11 (142)
11. Washington: 12 (154)
12. Maine: 4 (158)
13. New Jersey: 14 (172)
14. Connecticut: 7 (179)
15. New Mexico: 5 (184)
16. Oregon: 7 (191)
17. Minnesota: 10 (201)
Strong Lean Obama - This should go to Obama by between 5 and 10 points. If Romney wins this state, then Obama is in a world of trouble.
18. Michigan: 16 (217)
Lean Obama - The following states could move to toss-up status if Romney improves in the polling there. On the other side of things, if Obama improves by a couple points, these states could move from lean Obama to strong lean or even solid Obama. At the current time, however, I see Obama winning the following states by between 3 and 9 points. He could potentially lose a couple of these states and still earn 270 electoral votes.
19. Pennsylvania: 20 (237)
20. Nevada: 6 (243)
21. Wisconsin: 10 (253)
22. Ohio: 18 (271)
Slight Lean Obama - These three states are extremely close to being labeled as toss-ups. However, most recent polls have the President leading Romney by between 1 and 4 points. At this time, I see him winning these three states by that very margin - between 1 and 4 points. None of these states are vital for him to attain 270 electoral votes. However, if he loses 2-3 states from the "Lean Obama" category, he will need one to three of these to move past 270 electoral votes.
23. New Hampshire: 4 (275)
24. Iowa: 6 (281)
25. Virginia: 13 (294)
Solid Romney - Romney has little to no chance at losing these states. He should win these states by at least the high single ditgits.
1. Utah: 6 (6)
2. Wyoming: 3 (9)
3. Oklahoma: 7 (16)
4. Idaho: 4 (20)
5. Alabama: 9 (29)
6. Kansas: 6 (35)
7. Kentucky: 8 (43)
8. Arkansas: 6 (49)
9. West Virginia: 5 (54)
10. Nebraska: 5 (59)
11. Alaska: 3 (62)
12. Louisiana: 8 (70)
13. South Dakota: 3 (73)
14. North Dakota: 3 (76)
15. Tennessee: 11 (87)
16. Mississippi: 6 (93)
17. South Carolina: 9 (102)
18. Texas: 38 (140)
Strong Lean Romney - If Obama has a great showing in any of these states, there's an outside chance he could make things interesting. The chances of that occurring is not very likely, however. If Obama were to win any of these three states, the election would be in the bag for him. Romney should win these states by between 5 and 10 points.
19. Indiana: 11 (151)
20. Georgia: 16 (167)
21. Montana: 3 (170)
Lean Romney - Most polls have Romney up in Missouri by the high single digits, but once in a while a poll will come out where he only leads by 4-5. It's unlikely that Obama wins this state, but I wouldn't completely rule it out. Romney should win by between 3 and 9 points.
22. Missouri: 10 (180)
Slight Lean Romney - Obama's early-voting numbers have been stellar in North Carolina, which has more than made up for Romney's absentee-ballot advantage. I still give Romney a slight edge there and expect him to win by between 1 and 4 points. Arizona is a mystery state. Not many saw it as a potential battleground until a couple recent polls have the president leading Romney in the state. Romney still has the advantage there, I believe, but if the Hispanic turnout is higher than anticipated, Arizona could be the steal of the election for the President and potentially place him over the 270 mark as far as electoral votes go.
23. Arizona: 11 (191)
24. North Carolina: 15 (206)
Toss-ups - I might give Florida a current grade of "very slight lean Romney," but regardless of the outlier that was the Mason-Dixon poll that showed Romney with a 7-point lead in the state, most every other poll has the two neck and neck. Colorado is a true flip of the coin at this point in the race.
1. Colorado (9)
2. Florida (29)
Solid Obama: 201 electoral votes
Strong Lean Obama: 16 electoral votes (217 total)
Lean Obama: 54 electoral votes (271 total)
Slight Lean Obama: 23 electoral votes (294 total)
Solid Romney: 140 electoral votes
Strong Lean Romney: 30 electoral votes (170 total)
Lean Romney: 10 electoral votes (180 total)
Slight Lean Romney: 26 electoral votes (206 total)
Toss-ups: 38 electoral votes
If I had to predict the outcome right at this very second, I'd give Romney a slight edge in Florida and believe that Colorado is a pure toss-up at the moment. With Florida, Romney would have 235 electoral votes compared to 294 for Obama. If Colorado went to Romney, he'd ultimately wind up with 244 electoral votes, 50 fewer than the president. If Obama won the Rocky Mountain state, he'd eclipse the 300 mark at 303 electoral votes, which would be 68 more than his opponent.
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