It's really amazing how many polls are out and about. It's also amazing how drastically different some are. In two national polls today, one had Romney ahead of Obama by 7 points and the other had Obama up on Romney by 6 points. Both those appear to be outliers, but still - how can we be certain which polls to trust? I personally trust Nate Silver over at fivethirtyeight.com the most, because he takes every poll into effect, the histories and biases of the polls and works his nerd magic to showcase his best guess on how the election would go if it were held at any given moment. Even he, however, isn't perfect. Based on everything I've seen as far as poll results go, early voting results, the ground game, etc., here's how I see things standing right now, about two weeks before the election.
Solid Obama - all of these states (and D.C.) should go Obama's direction by at the very least, the upper single digits and in many cases, well over 10 points. I don't see any way that Romney wins any of these 17 states (including D.C.).
1. Washington: 12 electoral votes (12 total)
2. Oregon: 7 (19)
3. California: 55 (74)
4. Hawaii: 4 (78)
5. New Mexico: 5 (83)
6. Minnesota: 10 (93)
7. Illinois: 20 (113)
8. Maine: 4 (117)
9. Vermont: 3 (120)
10. New York: 29 (149)
11. Massachusetts: 11 (160)
12. Connecticut: 7 (167)
13. Rhode Island: 4 (171)
14. New Jersey: 14 (185)
15. Delaware: 3 (188)
16. Maryland: 10 (198)
17. Washington, D.C.: 3 (201)
Strong Lean Obama - This should go to Obama by between 5 and 10 points. If Romney wins this state, then Obama is in a world of trouble.
18. Michigan: 16 (217)
Lean Obama - The following states could move to toss-up status if Romney improves in the polling there. On the other side of things, if Obama improves by a couple points, these states could move from lean Obama to strong lean or even solid Obama. At the current time, however, I see Obama winning the following states by between 3 and 9 points. He could potentially lose a couple of these states and still earn 270 electoral votes.
19. Nevada: 6 (223)
20. Ohio: 18 (241)
21. Pennsylvania: 20 (261)
22. Wisconsin: 10 (271)
23. Iowa: 6 (277)
Slight Lean Obama - These two states are extremely close to being labeled as toss-ups. However, most recent polls have the President leading Romney by between 1 and 4 points. At this time, I see him winning these two states by that very margin - between 1 and 4 points. Neither state is vital for him to attain 270 electoral votes. However, if he loses 2-3 states from the "Lean Obama" category, he may need one or both of these to move past 270 electoral votes.
24. Colorado: 9 (286)
25. New Hampshire: 4 (290)
Solid Romney - Romney has little to no chance at losing these states. He should win these states by at least the high single ditgits.
1. Idaho: 4 (4)
2. Alaska: 3 (7)
3. Wyoming: 3 (10)
4. Utah: 6 (16)
5. North Dakota: 3 (19)
6. South Dakota: 3 (22)
7. Nebraska: 5 (27)
8. Kansas: 6 (33)
9. Oklahoma: 7 (40)
10. Texas: 38 (78)
11. Arkansas: 6 (84)
12. Louisiana: 8 (92)
13. Mississippi: 6 (98)
14. Alabama: 9 (107)
15. Kentucky: 8 (115)
16. West Virginia: 5 (120)
17. Tennessee: 11 (131)
18. South Carolina: 9 (140)
Strong Lean Romney - If Obama has a great showing in any of these states, there's an outside chance he could make things interesting. The chances of that occurring is not very likely, however. If Obama were to win any of these three states, the election would be in the bag for him. Romney should win these states by between 5 and 10 points.
19. Montana: 3 (143)
20. Indiana: 11 (154)
21. Georgia: 16 (170)
Lean Romney - Most polls have Romney up in Missouri by the high single digits, but once in a while a poll will come out where he only leads by 4-5. It's unlikely that Obama wins this state, but I wouldn't completely rule it out. Romney should win by between 3 and 9 points.
22. Missouri: 10 (180)
Slight Lean Romney - Obama's early-voting numbers have been stellar in North Carolina, which has more than made up for Romney's absentee-ballot advantage. I still give Romney a slight edge there and expect him to win by between 1 and 4 points. Arizona is a mystery state. Not many saw it as a potential battleground until a couple recent polls have the president leading Romney in the state. Romney still has the advantage there, I believe, but if the Hispanic turnout is higher than anticipated, Arizona could be the steal of the election for the President and potentially place him over the 270 mark as far as electoral votes go.
23. Arizona: 11 (191)
24. North Carolina: 15 (206)
Toss-ups - I might give Florida a current grade of "very slight lean Romney," but regardless of the outlier that was the Mason-Dixon poll that showed Romney with a 7-point lead in the state, most every other poll has the two neck and neck. Virginia is a true flip of the coin at this point in the race.
1. Florida: 29 (29)
2. Virginia: 13 (42)
Solid Obama: 201 electoral votes
Strong Lean Obama: 16 electoral votes (217 total)
Lean Obama: 60 electoral votes (277 total)
Slight Lean Obama: 13 electoral votes (290 total)
Solid Romney: 140 electoral votes
Strong Lean Romney: 30 electoral votes (170 total)
Lean Romney: 10 electoral votes (180 total)
Slight Lean Romney: 26 electoral votes (206 total)
Toss-ups: 42 electoral votes
If I had to predict the outcome right at this very second, I'd give Florida to Romney. Obama would then have 290 electoral votes and Romney would have 235 with Virginia being the only state up for grabs. If Virginia went to Obama, he'd wind up winning 313 - 235. If Romney won the state, the final tally would be Obama with 290 electoral votes and Romney with 248. For the moment, I'll give Virginia to Romney as well. So, one day prior to the final presidential election and about two weeks from the actual election, my prediction is Obama 290 and Romney 248. With a couple weeks left to go, however, this is subject to change.
Solid Obama - all of these states (and D.C.) should go Obama's direction by at the very least, the upper single digits and in many cases, well over 10 points. I don't see any way that Romney wins any of these 17 states (including D.C.).
1. Washington: 12 electoral votes (12 total)
2. Oregon: 7 (19)
3. California: 55 (74)
4. Hawaii: 4 (78)
5. New Mexico: 5 (83)
6. Minnesota: 10 (93)
7. Illinois: 20 (113)
8. Maine: 4 (117)
9. Vermont: 3 (120)
10. New York: 29 (149)
11. Massachusetts: 11 (160)
12. Connecticut: 7 (167)
13. Rhode Island: 4 (171)
14. New Jersey: 14 (185)
15. Delaware: 3 (188)
16. Maryland: 10 (198)
17. Washington, D.C.: 3 (201)
Strong Lean Obama - This should go to Obama by between 5 and 10 points. If Romney wins this state, then Obama is in a world of trouble.
18. Michigan: 16 (217)
Lean Obama - The following states could move to toss-up status if Romney improves in the polling there. On the other side of things, if Obama improves by a couple points, these states could move from lean Obama to strong lean or even solid Obama. At the current time, however, I see Obama winning the following states by between 3 and 9 points. He could potentially lose a couple of these states and still earn 270 electoral votes.
19. Nevada: 6 (223)
20. Ohio: 18 (241)
21. Pennsylvania: 20 (261)
22. Wisconsin: 10 (271)
23. Iowa: 6 (277)
Slight Lean Obama - These two states are extremely close to being labeled as toss-ups. However, most recent polls have the President leading Romney by between 1 and 4 points. At this time, I see him winning these two states by that very margin - between 1 and 4 points. Neither state is vital for him to attain 270 electoral votes. However, if he loses 2-3 states from the "Lean Obama" category, he may need one or both of these to move past 270 electoral votes.
24. Colorado: 9 (286)
25. New Hampshire: 4 (290)
Solid Romney - Romney has little to no chance at losing these states. He should win these states by at least the high single ditgits.
1. Idaho: 4 (4)
2. Alaska: 3 (7)
3. Wyoming: 3 (10)
4. Utah: 6 (16)
5. North Dakota: 3 (19)
6. South Dakota: 3 (22)
7. Nebraska: 5 (27)
8. Kansas: 6 (33)
9. Oklahoma: 7 (40)
10. Texas: 38 (78)
11. Arkansas: 6 (84)
12. Louisiana: 8 (92)
13. Mississippi: 6 (98)
14. Alabama: 9 (107)
15. Kentucky: 8 (115)
16. West Virginia: 5 (120)
17. Tennessee: 11 (131)
18. South Carolina: 9 (140)
Strong Lean Romney - If Obama has a great showing in any of these states, there's an outside chance he could make things interesting. The chances of that occurring is not very likely, however. If Obama were to win any of these three states, the election would be in the bag for him. Romney should win these states by between 5 and 10 points.
19. Montana: 3 (143)
20. Indiana: 11 (154)
21. Georgia: 16 (170)
Lean Romney - Most polls have Romney up in Missouri by the high single digits, but once in a while a poll will come out where he only leads by 4-5. It's unlikely that Obama wins this state, but I wouldn't completely rule it out. Romney should win by between 3 and 9 points.
22. Missouri: 10 (180)
Slight Lean Romney - Obama's early-voting numbers have been stellar in North Carolina, which has more than made up for Romney's absentee-ballot advantage. I still give Romney a slight edge there and expect him to win by between 1 and 4 points. Arizona is a mystery state. Not many saw it as a potential battleground until a couple recent polls have the president leading Romney in the state. Romney still has the advantage there, I believe, but if the Hispanic turnout is higher than anticipated, Arizona could be the steal of the election for the President and potentially place him over the 270 mark as far as electoral votes go.
23. Arizona: 11 (191)
24. North Carolina: 15 (206)
Toss-ups - I might give Florida a current grade of "very slight lean Romney," but regardless of the outlier that was the Mason-Dixon poll that showed Romney with a 7-point lead in the state, most every other poll has the two neck and neck. Virginia is a true flip of the coin at this point in the race.
1. Florida: 29 (29)
2. Virginia: 13 (42)
Solid Obama: 201 electoral votes
Strong Lean Obama: 16 electoral votes (217 total)
Lean Obama: 60 electoral votes (277 total)
Slight Lean Obama: 13 electoral votes (290 total)
Solid Romney: 140 electoral votes
Strong Lean Romney: 30 electoral votes (170 total)
Lean Romney: 10 electoral votes (180 total)
Slight Lean Romney: 26 electoral votes (206 total)
Toss-ups: 42 electoral votes
If I had to predict the outcome right at this very second, I'd give Florida to Romney. Obama would then have 290 electoral votes and Romney would have 235 with Virginia being the only state up for grabs. If Virginia went to Obama, he'd wind up winning 313 - 235. If Romney won the state, the final tally would be Obama with 290 electoral votes and Romney with 248. For the moment, I'll give Virginia to Romney as well. So, one day prior to the final presidential election and about two weeks from the actual election, my prediction is Obama 290 and Romney 248. With a couple weeks left to go, however, this is subject to change.
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