As I promised a few days ago, whenever I see a shift in some state poll data which could potentially alter the state of the race, even if to the slightest degree, I'll update my electoral college projections. So here I am to do just that. As there's just a little over a week left until the election, I'm guessing I'll have 2-3 more updates, with the final one being the morning of election day. As stated in my last such update, I will order the states for each candidate from the state they're most likely to win to the state which is most likely to wind up being a toss-up.
Solid Obama - all of these states (and D.C.) should go Obama's direction by at the very least, the upper single digits and in many cases, well over 10 points. I don't see any way that Romney wins any of these 17 states (including D.C.).
1. Washington, D.C.: 3 electoral votes (3 overall)
2. Hawaii: 4 (7)
3. Vermont: 3 (10)
4. New York: 29 (39)
5. Illinois: 20 (59)
6. Maryland: 10 (69)
7. Delaware: 3 (72)
8. Rhode Island: 4 (76)
9. California: 55 (131)
10. Massachusetts: 11 (142)
11. Washington: 12 (154)
12. Maine: 4 (158)
13. New Jersey: 14 (172)
14. Connecticut: 7 (179)
15. New Mexico: 5 (184)
16. Oregon: 7 (191)
Strong Lean Obama - These two states should go to Obama by between 5 and 10 points. If Romney wins either state, then Obama is in a world of trouble.
17. Minnesota: 10 (201)
18. Michigan: 16 (217)
Lean Obama - The following states could move to toss-up status if Romney improves in the polling there. On the other side of things, if Obama improves by a couple points, these states could move from lean Obama to strong lean or even solid Obama. At the current time, however, I see Obama winning the following states by between 3 and 9 points. He could potentially lose a couple of these states and still earn 270 electoral votes.
19. Pennsylvania: 20 (237)
20. Nevada: 6 (243)
21. Wisconsin: 10 (253)
Slight Lean Obama - These four states are extremely close to being labeled as toss-ups. However, most recent polls have the President leading Romney by between 1 and 4 points. At this time, I see him winning these three states by that very margin - between 1 and 4 points. None of these states are vital for him to attain 270 electoral votes. However, if he loses 2-3 states from the "Lean Obama" category, he will need one to three of these to move past 270 electoral votes.
22. Ohio: 18 (271)
23. New Hampshire: 4 (275)
24. Virginia: 13 (288)
25. Iowa: 6 (294)
26. Colorado: 9 (303)
Solid Romney - Romney has little to no chance at losing these states. He should win these states by at least the high single ditgits.
1. Utah: 6 (6)
2. Wyoming: 3 (9)
3. Oklahoma: 7 (16)
4. Idaho: 4 (20)
5. Alabama: 9 (29)
6. Kansas: 6 (35)
7. Kentucky: 8 (43)
8. Arkansas: 6 (49)
9. West Virginia: 5 (54)
10. Nebraska: 5 (59)
11. Alaska: 3 (62)
12. Louisiana: 8 (70)
13. South Dakota: 3 (73)
14. North Dakota: 3 (76)
15. Tennessee: 11 (87)
16. Mississippi: 6 (93)
17. South Carolina: 9 (102)
18. Texas: 38 (140)
Strong Lean Romney - If Obama has a great showing in any of these states, there's an outside chance he could make things interesting. The chances of that occurring is not very likely, however. If Obama were to win any of these three states, the election would be in the bag for him. Romney should win these states by between 5 and 10 points.
19. Indiana: 11 (151)
20. Georgia: 16 (167)
21. Montana: 3 (170)
Lean Romney - Most polls have Romney up in these two states by the high single digits, but once in a while a poll will come out where he only leads by 4-5. It's unlikely that Obama wins either state, but I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility either. Romney should win by between 3 and 9 points.
22. Missouri: 10 (180)
23. Arizona: 11 (191)
Slight Lean Romney - Obama's early-voting numbers have been stellar in North Carolina, which has more than made up for Romney's absentee-ballot advantage. I still give Romney a slight edge there and expect him to win by between 1 and 4 points. Arizona is a mystery state. Not many saw it as a potential battleground until a couple recent polls have the president leading Romney in the state. Romney still has the advantage there, I believe, but if the Hispanic turnout is higher than anticipated, Arizona could be the steal of the election for the President and potentially place him over the 270 mark as far as electoral votes go.
24. North Carolina: 15 (206)
Toss-ups - At this point, I'd give Florida the grade of "toss-up - advantage Romney." It seems as if President Obama is narrowing the gap in the state and I'm on the verge of giving it a 50-50 toss-up status. Until I see a couple more polls which show the two candidates at even or with Obama slightly ahead, though, I'll give the slightest advantage to Romney.
1. Florida (29)
Solid Obama: 191 electoral votes (down from 201 electoral votes in my last update)
Strong Lean Obama: 26 electoral votes (up from 16 electoral votes - 217 total)
Lean Obama: 36 electoral votes (down from 54 electoral votes - 253 total)
Slight Lean Obama: 50 electoral votes (up from 23 electoral votes - 303 total)
Solid Romney: 140 electoral votes
Strong Lean Romney: 30 electoral votes (170 total)
Lean Romney: 21 electoral votes (up from 10 electoral votes - 191 total)
Slight Lean Romney: 15 electoral votes (down from 26 electoral votes - 206 total)
Toss-ups: 29 electoral votes (down from 38 electoral votes)
Overall, Romney has tightened things when it comes to the near-guaranteed state victories for the two candidates, closing the gap from 271-180 to 253-191, as Ohio went from lean Obama to slight lean Obama (18 electoral votes) and Arizona went from slight lean Romney to lean Romney (11 electoral votes). On the other side of things, President Obama expanded his lead when we include even the slight leaners, as he picked up Colorado from the then two toss-up states (9 electoral votes). At this point in time, I'd predict that Obama would come away with 26 states (including D.C.) worth a combined 303 electoral votes and Romney would win 25 states worth 235 electoral votes (including Florida's 29).
Solid Obama - all of these states (and D.C.) should go Obama's direction by at the very least, the upper single digits and in many cases, well over 10 points. I don't see any way that Romney wins any of these 17 states (including D.C.).
1. Washington, D.C.: 3 electoral votes (3 overall)
2. Hawaii: 4 (7)
3. Vermont: 3 (10)
4. New York: 29 (39)
5. Illinois: 20 (59)
6. Maryland: 10 (69)
7. Delaware: 3 (72)
8. Rhode Island: 4 (76)
9. California: 55 (131)
10. Massachusetts: 11 (142)
11. Washington: 12 (154)
12. Maine: 4 (158)
13. New Jersey: 14 (172)
14. Connecticut: 7 (179)
15. New Mexico: 5 (184)
16. Oregon: 7 (191)
Strong Lean Obama - These two states should go to Obama by between 5 and 10 points. If Romney wins either state, then Obama is in a world of trouble.
17. Minnesota: 10 (201)
18. Michigan: 16 (217)
Lean Obama - The following states could move to toss-up status if Romney improves in the polling there. On the other side of things, if Obama improves by a couple points, these states could move from lean Obama to strong lean or even solid Obama. At the current time, however, I see Obama winning the following states by between 3 and 9 points. He could potentially lose a couple of these states and still earn 270 electoral votes.
19. Pennsylvania: 20 (237)
20. Nevada: 6 (243)
21. Wisconsin: 10 (253)
Slight Lean Obama - These four states are extremely close to being labeled as toss-ups. However, most recent polls have the President leading Romney by between 1 and 4 points. At this time, I see him winning these three states by that very margin - between 1 and 4 points. None of these states are vital for him to attain 270 electoral votes. However, if he loses 2-3 states from the "Lean Obama" category, he will need one to three of these to move past 270 electoral votes.
22. Ohio: 18 (271)
23. New Hampshire: 4 (275)
24. Virginia: 13 (288)
25. Iowa: 6 (294)
26. Colorado: 9 (303)
Solid Romney - Romney has little to no chance at losing these states. He should win these states by at least the high single ditgits.
1. Utah: 6 (6)
2. Wyoming: 3 (9)
3. Oklahoma: 7 (16)
4. Idaho: 4 (20)
5. Alabama: 9 (29)
6. Kansas: 6 (35)
7. Kentucky: 8 (43)
8. Arkansas: 6 (49)
9. West Virginia: 5 (54)
10. Nebraska: 5 (59)
11. Alaska: 3 (62)
12. Louisiana: 8 (70)
13. South Dakota: 3 (73)
14. North Dakota: 3 (76)
15. Tennessee: 11 (87)
16. Mississippi: 6 (93)
17. South Carolina: 9 (102)
18. Texas: 38 (140)
Strong Lean Romney - If Obama has a great showing in any of these states, there's an outside chance he could make things interesting. The chances of that occurring is not very likely, however. If Obama were to win any of these three states, the election would be in the bag for him. Romney should win these states by between 5 and 10 points.
19. Indiana: 11 (151)
20. Georgia: 16 (167)
21. Montana: 3 (170)
Lean Romney - Most polls have Romney up in these two states by the high single digits, but once in a while a poll will come out where he only leads by 4-5. It's unlikely that Obama wins either state, but I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility either. Romney should win by between 3 and 9 points.
22. Missouri: 10 (180)
23. Arizona: 11 (191)
Slight Lean Romney - Obama's early-voting numbers have been stellar in North Carolina, which has more than made up for Romney's absentee-ballot advantage. I still give Romney a slight edge there and expect him to win by between 1 and 4 points. Arizona is a mystery state. Not many saw it as a potential battleground until a couple recent polls have the president leading Romney in the state. Romney still has the advantage there, I believe, but if the Hispanic turnout is higher than anticipated, Arizona could be the steal of the election for the President and potentially place him over the 270 mark as far as electoral votes go.
24. North Carolina: 15 (206)
Toss-ups - At this point, I'd give Florida the grade of "toss-up - advantage Romney." It seems as if President Obama is narrowing the gap in the state and I'm on the verge of giving it a 50-50 toss-up status. Until I see a couple more polls which show the two candidates at even or with Obama slightly ahead, though, I'll give the slightest advantage to Romney.
1. Florida (29)
Solid Obama: 191 electoral votes (down from 201 electoral votes in my last update)
Strong Lean Obama: 26 electoral votes (up from 16 electoral votes - 217 total)
Lean Obama: 36 electoral votes (down from 54 electoral votes - 253 total)
Slight Lean Obama: 50 electoral votes (up from 23 electoral votes - 303 total)
Solid Romney: 140 electoral votes
Strong Lean Romney: 30 electoral votes (170 total)
Lean Romney: 21 electoral votes (up from 10 electoral votes - 191 total)
Slight Lean Romney: 15 electoral votes (down from 26 electoral votes - 206 total)
Toss-ups: 29 electoral votes (down from 38 electoral votes)
Overall, Romney has tightened things when it comes to the near-guaranteed state victories for the two candidates, closing the gap from 271-180 to 253-191, as Ohio went from lean Obama to slight lean Obama (18 electoral votes) and Arizona went from slight lean Romney to lean Romney (11 electoral votes). On the other side of things, President Obama expanded his lead when we include even the slight leaners, as he picked up Colorado from the then two toss-up states (9 electoral votes). At this point in time, I'd predict that Obama would come away with 26 states (including D.C.) worth a combined 303 electoral votes and Romney would win 25 states worth 235 electoral votes (including Florida's 29).
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