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Vice Presidential debate prediction

Preceding the first presidential debate, which was held last Wednesday night, a Times/Zogby poll showed that 49% of voters felt President Obama would win the debate, while 26% felt that Mitt Romney would win - a +23% for the president. This is one of multiple reasons as to why I think both the news-media and the voters felt that Romney won the debate. While one individual may fare better than another, if he/she was expected to perform far better, his/her opponent may be seen as the victor. In college football, if top-ranked Alabama squared off against a team like Bowling Green and was a 35-point favorite over the Falcons in this game, and Bowling Green lost by only 10 points, many people would see that as a moral victory for them, even though in actuality they would have lost the game.

Keeping all this in mind, like with Obama in the first presidential debate, Mitt Romney's running mate - Paul Ryan - is expected to triumph over Vice President Joe Biden in tomorrow's debate. In a CNN poll, it showed that 55% of voters expect Ryan to win the debate, compared to 39% who felt Biden would win - a +16% for Ryan. That margin isn't quite as great as Obama's preceding last week's debate, but is still quite significant and due to this, I have a feeling that Biden will be seen as at least coming close to a push when all is said and done, if not being seen as the outright winner. This isn't to say that from an overall quality of performance perspective, I feel that the Vice President will triumph tomorrow. However, due to the lower expectations residing over Vice President Biden, I feel he'll be able to live up to and exceed those expectations to make it appear to both the news-media and viewers that he fought Congressman Ryan to at least a draw, if not an outright victory over him.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/sep/30/poll-finds-most-think-obama-will-win-first-debate/


http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/07/politics/biden-ryan-debate/index.html
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