I had run a perfect record with my debate predictions through the first three, but that streak came to an end tonight and I'm perfectly okay with it.
In the first debate, as history has showcased, I thought the challenger - Mitt Romney in this case - would likely be perceived as winning the debate. According to a CBS snap poll of undecided voters, Romney did upend the president by the final count of 46% to 22%.
With all the momentum Romney garnered from the first debate, I felt that his running mate - Paul Ryan - would be rather cautious in his approach and this would give Vice President Joe Biden the edge. The final result, according to the CBS snap poll was Biden with 50% and Ryan with 31%.
President Obama needed a bounce-back in the second debate and I felt he'd alter his approach quite drastically and see positive results. CBS' poll showed Obama did win by a final of 37% to 30%.
Leading up to tonight, I thought both candidates would play things a bit more carefully, not wanting to risk a gaffe which would dominate the airwaves over the next week to two weeks preceding the election. Both candidates were somewhat happy with where the election stood or where it was going, so I thought the two would play out to a draw, with Obama perhaps having a slight advantage but with that advantage being within the margin of error. Obama did definitely wind up with the advantage (so, I guess I was half-right), but it wasn't slight. According to the CBS snap poll of undecided voters, Obama dominated Governor Romney, earning 53% of the vote, while Romney only earned 23% of it.
So, here's a brief rundown of the CBS snap poll numbers for all four debates:
Debate #1: Romney 46% Obama 22%
Debate #2: Biden 50% Ryan 31%
Debate #3: Obama 37% Romney 30%
Debate #4: Obama 53% Romney 23%
Three presidential debates: Obama 112% Romney 99% (average: Obama 37.3% Romney 33.0%)
All four debates: Obama/Biden 162% Romney/Ryan 130% (average: Obama/Biden 40.5% Romney/Ryan 32.5%)
So, according to the undecideds, Obama got the best of Romney in two of three debates and averaged to win all three debates by 4.3%. When including the Vice Presidential debate, the Obama/Biden ticket won three of the four debates and all four debates by the average of 8.0%. If one excludes the first debate, the Democratic ticket went 3-0 by an average score of 46.7% to 28.0% - 18.7% per. It'll be interesting to see how Fox News and other right-wing pundits spin things.
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