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My Vice Presidential debate prediction was spot on

I don't like to toot my own horn (unless I'm in the shower and the mood suddenly strikes me of course), but I happen to be quite pleased with myself following the prediction I made on Tuesday and in watching the Vice Presidential debate last night.

As I wrote on Tuesday, "In a CNN poll, it showed that 55% of voters expect Ryan to win the debate, compared to 39% who felt Biden would win - a +16% for Ryan. That margin isn't quite as great as Obama's preceding last week's debate, but is still quite significant and due to this, I have a feeling that Biden will be seen as at least coming close to a push when all is said and done, if not being seen as the outright winner. This isn't to say that from an overall quality of performance perspective, I feel that the Vice President will triumph tomorrow. However, due to the lower expectations residing over Vice President Biden, I feel he'll be able to live up to and exceed those expectations to make it appear to both the news-media and viewers that he fought Congressman Ryan to at least a draw, if not an outright victory over him."

While NBC and CNN seemed to see the debate as a draw, CBS, MSNBC and The Huffington Post saw it as a clear Joe Biden victory. The two snap polls were conducted by CNN and CBS and like after last week's presidential debate, the two resulted in drastically different numbers. 

In CNN's poll, they actually had Ryan winning 48% of the vote to 44% for Biden, with a margin of error of +/-5%. In the CBS poll, Biden won 50% of the vote in comparison to just 31% for Ryan. That's a difference of 23%. So, what gives? Well, like I said after last week in claiming that CBS' numbers, which showcased Romney winning 46% to 22% for Obama, were more accurate than CNN's, I believe that's the case this time as well. 

One key difference between the two polls is that the CNN poll included everybody and the CBS poll was solely focused on undecided voters. So according to CNN, on the surface, Ryan won amongst all voters by 4% (within the margin of error, so CNN called it a tie) and according to CBS, Biden won amongst undecided voters by 19%. 

The problem with the CNN poll is the same problem they ran into after last week's debate. After last week's poll was released, they admitted to perhaps oversampling Republicans. They admitted something similar following the release of last night's poll. Their sample size was 381 registered voters whom watched the debate, 31% of whom were Democrats and 33% whom were Republican - an 8-point bias in favor of Republicans when compared to CNN's poll average of all Americans. So, if we adjust the numbers accordingly, Ryan would go from +4 to -4 and when we take the margin of error into account, the range would be anything from Ryan at +1 to Biden at +9. So, when properly adjusting the sample bias, the result alters from a push/advantage Ryan to a push/advantage Biden. 

Due to all the problems with the CNN poll, I'm much more inclined to trusting the CBS poll results. 

So, like I said not to toot my own horn, but as I wrote on Tuesday, "...This isn't to say that from an overall quality of performance perspective, I feel that the Vice President will triumph tomorrow. However, due to the lower expectations residing over Vice President Biden, I feel he'll be able to live up to and exceed those expectations to make it appear to both the news-media and viewers that he fought Congressman Ryan to at least a draw, if not an outright victory over him."

I couldn't have said it better myself. Wait, I guess I did say it myself. 


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