As I promised about a week ago, whenever I see a shift in some state poll data which could potentially alter the state of the race, even if to the slightest degree, I'll update my electoral college projections. So here I am to do just that. Since there's less than a week to go until the election and it appears as if polling is about to slow some due to Hurricane Sandy, I thought I'd release one more update before my final one on the morning of the election. As stated in my last such update, I will order the states for each candidate from the state they're most likely to win to the state which is most likely to wind up being a toss-up.
Solid Obama - all of these states (and D.C.) should go Obama's direction by at the very least, the upper single digits and in many cases, well over 10 points. I don't see any way that Romney wins any of these 17 states (including D.C.).
1. Washington, D.C.: 3 electoral votes (3 overall)
2. Hawaii: 4 (7)
3. Vermont: 3 (10)
4. New York: 29 (39)
5. Illinois: 20 (59)
6. Maryland: 10 (69)
7. Delaware: 3 (72)
8. Rhode Island: 4 (76)
9. California: 55 (131)
10. Massachusetts: 11 (142)
11. Washington: 12 (154)
12. Maine: 4 (158)
13. New Jersey: 14 (172)
14. Connecticut: 7 (179)
Strong Lean Obama - These states should go to Obama by between 5 and 10 points. If Romney wins any of them, then Obama will likely be in a world of trouble.
15. New Mexico: 5 (184)
16. Oregon: 7 (191)
17. Minnesota: 10 (201)
18. Michigan: 16 (217)
Lean Obama - The following states could move to toss-up status if Romney improves in the polling there. On the other side of things, if Obama improves by a couple points, these states could move from lean Obama to strong lean or even solid Obama. At the current time, however, I see Obama winning the following states by between 3 and 9 points. He could potentially lose a couple of these states and still earn 270 electoral votes.
19. Wisconsin: 10 (227)
20. Nevada: 6 (233)
21. Pennsylvania: 20 (253)
Slight Lean Obama - These four states are extremely close to being labeled as toss-ups. However, most recent polls have the President leading Romney by between 1 and 4 points. At this time, I see him winning these three states by that very margin - between 1 and 4 points. None of these states are vital for him to attain 270 electoral votes. However, if he loses 2-3 states from the "Lean Obama" category, he will need one to three of these to move past 270 electoral votes.
22. Ohio: 18 (271)
23. New Hampshire: 4 (275)
24. Virginia: 13 (288)
25. Iowa: 6 (294)
26. Colorado: 9 (303)
Solid Romney - Romney has little to no chance at losing these states. He should win these states by at least the high single ditgits.
1. Utah: 6 (6)
2. Wyoming: 3 (9)
3. Oklahoma: 7 (16)
4. Idaho: 4 (20)
5. Alabama: 9 (29)
6. Kansas: 6 (35)
7. Kentucky: 8 (43)
8. Arkansas: 6 (49)
9. West Virginia: 5 (54)
10. Nebraska: 5 (59)
11. Alaska: 3 (62)
12. Louisiana: 8 (70)
13. South Dakota: 3 (73)
14. North Dakota: 3 (76)
15. Tennessee: 11 (87)
16. Mississippi: 6 (93)
17. South Carolina: 9 (102)
18. Texas: 38 (140)
Strong Lean Romney - If Obama has a great showing in any of these states, there's an outside chance he could make things interesting. The chances of that occurring is not very likely, however. If Obama were to win any of these three states, the election would be in the bag for him. Romney should win these states by between 5 and 10 points.
19. Indiana: 11 (151)
20. Georgia: 16 (167)
21. Montana: 3 (170)
Lean Romney - Most polls have Romney up in these two states by the high single digits, but once in a while a poll will come out where he only leads by 4-5. It's unlikely that Obama wins either state, but I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility either. Romney should win by between 3 and 9 points.
22. Missouri: 10 (180)
23. Arizona: 11 (191)
Slight Lean Romney - Obama's early-voting numbers have been stellar in North Carolina, which has more than made up for Romney's absentee-ballot advantage. I still give Romney a slight edge there and expect him to win by between 1 and 4 points. Arizona is a mystery state. Not many saw it as a potential battleground until a couple recent polls have the president leading Romney in the state. Romney still has the advantage there, I believe, but if the Hispanic turnout is higher than anticipated, Arizona could be the steal of the election for the President and potentially place him over the 270 mark as far as electoral votes go.
24. North Carolina: 15 (206)
Toss-ups - I've now reached the point where I see Florida as a 50-50 toss-up state. I had previously labeled it "toss-up - advantage Romney," but due to multiple polls released from the sunshine state in recent days showing the two candidates in a virtual lock with one another, I now believe one could flip a coin on this state. We'll see if that changes any in my final update.
1. Florida (29)
Solid Obama: 179 electoral votes (down from 201 electoral votes in my last update)
Strong Lean Obama: 38 electoral votes (up from 26 electoral votes - 217 total)
Lean Obama: 36 electoral votes (down from 54 electoral votes - 253 total)
Slight Lean Obama: 50 electoral votes (up from 23 electoral votes - 303 total)
Solid Romney: 140 electoral votes (no change)
Strong Lean Romney: 30 electoral votes (no change - 170 total)
Lean Romney: 21 electoral votes (up from 10 electoral votes - 191 total)
Slight Lean Romney: 15 electoral votes (down from 26 electoral votes - 206 total)
Toss-ups: 29 electoral votes (down from 38 electoral votes)
Nothing too significant has changed in recent days. I did move the states of Oregon and New Mexico down from solid Obama to strong lean Obama. He should have no problem winning the two states for a combined 12 electoral votes, but based on recent polling, it appears that he'll win in the range of 5 to 10 points over the Republican challenger. I also flipped around some of the lean Obama states. I previously had Pennsylvania ranked 19th, Nevada 20th and Wisconsin 21st, but due to recent polling, believe the president is now in better shape to win Wisconsin and Nevada than Pennsylvania, although, he should too win all three states for a combined 36 electoral votes. The only other change I made was in labeling the state of Florida and its 29 electoral votes as a true 50-50 toss-up state. I had previously referred to it as "toss-up - advantage Romney," but now believe that each candidate has an equal shot at winning the state. So, for the time being, here are the numbers:
Solid/Strong Lean/Lean Obama: 253 electoral votes
Solid/Strong Lean/Lean Romney: 191 electoral votes
When slight leaners are included, Obama comes away with 303 electoral votes compared to 206 for Romney.
If Florida went to Obama, he'd finish with 332 electoral votes compared to 206 for Romney and if Romney won the state, he'd wind up with 235 electoral votes compared to 303 for President Obama.
Solid Obama - all of these states (and D.C.) should go Obama's direction by at the very least, the upper single digits and in many cases, well over 10 points. I don't see any way that Romney wins any of these 17 states (including D.C.).
1. Washington, D.C.: 3 electoral votes (3 overall)
2. Hawaii: 4 (7)
3. Vermont: 3 (10)
4. New York: 29 (39)
5. Illinois: 20 (59)
6. Maryland: 10 (69)
7. Delaware: 3 (72)
8. Rhode Island: 4 (76)
9. California: 55 (131)
10. Massachusetts: 11 (142)
11. Washington: 12 (154)
12. Maine: 4 (158)
13. New Jersey: 14 (172)
14. Connecticut: 7 (179)
Strong Lean Obama - These states should go to Obama by between 5 and 10 points. If Romney wins any of them, then Obama will likely be in a world of trouble.
15. New Mexico: 5 (184)
16. Oregon: 7 (191)
17. Minnesota: 10 (201)
18. Michigan: 16 (217)
Lean Obama - The following states could move to toss-up status if Romney improves in the polling there. On the other side of things, if Obama improves by a couple points, these states could move from lean Obama to strong lean or even solid Obama. At the current time, however, I see Obama winning the following states by between 3 and 9 points. He could potentially lose a couple of these states and still earn 270 electoral votes.
19. Wisconsin: 10 (227)
20. Nevada: 6 (233)
21. Pennsylvania: 20 (253)
Slight Lean Obama - These four states are extremely close to being labeled as toss-ups. However, most recent polls have the President leading Romney by between 1 and 4 points. At this time, I see him winning these three states by that very margin - between 1 and 4 points. None of these states are vital for him to attain 270 electoral votes. However, if he loses 2-3 states from the "Lean Obama" category, he will need one to three of these to move past 270 electoral votes.
22. Ohio: 18 (271)
23. New Hampshire: 4 (275)
24. Virginia: 13 (288)
25. Iowa: 6 (294)
26. Colorado: 9 (303)
Solid Romney - Romney has little to no chance at losing these states. He should win these states by at least the high single ditgits.
1. Utah: 6 (6)
2. Wyoming: 3 (9)
3. Oklahoma: 7 (16)
4. Idaho: 4 (20)
5. Alabama: 9 (29)
6. Kansas: 6 (35)
7. Kentucky: 8 (43)
8. Arkansas: 6 (49)
9. West Virginia: 5 (54)
10. Nebraska: 5 (59)
11. Alaska: 3 (62)
12. Louisiana: 8 (70)
13. South Dakota: 3 (73)
14. North Dakota: 3 (76)
15. Tennessee: 11 (87)
16. Mississippi: 6 (93)
17. South Carolina: 9 (102)
18. Texas: 38 (140)
Strong Lean Romney - If Obama has a great showing in any of these states, there's an outside chance he could make things interesting. The chances of that occurring is not very likely, however. If Obama were to win any of these three states, the election would be in the bag for him. Romney should win these states by between 5 and 10 points.
19. Indiana: 11 (151)
20. Georgia: 16 (167)
21. Montana: 3 (170)
Lean Romney - Most polls have Romney up in these two states by the high single digits, but once in a while a poll will come out where he only leads by 4-5. It's unlikely that Obama wins either state, but I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility either. Romney should win by between 3 and 9 points.
22. Missouri: 10 (180)
23. Arizona: 11 (191)
Slight Lean Romney - Obama's early-voting numbers have been stellar in North Carolina, which has more than made up for Romney's absentee-ballot advantage. I still give Romney a slight edge there and expect him to win by between 1 and 4 points. Arizona is a mystery state. Not many saw it as a potential battleground until a couple recent polls have the president leading Romney in the state. Romney still has the advantage there, I believe, but if the Hispanic turnout is higher than anticipated, Arizona could be the steal of the election for the President and potentially place him over the 270 mark as far as electoral votes go.
24. North Carolina: 15 (206)
Toss-ups - I've now reached the point where I see Florida as a 50-50 toss-up state. I had previously labeled it "toss-up - advantage Romney," but due to multiple polls released from the sunshine state in recent days showing the two candidates in a virtual lock with one another, I now believe one could flip a coin on this state. We'll see if that changes any in my final update.
1. Florida (29)
Solid Obama: 179 electoral votes (down from 201 electoral votes in my last update)
Strong Lean Obama: 38 electoral votes (up from 26 electoral votes - 217 total)
Lean Obama: 36 electoral votes (down from 54 electoral votes - 253 total)
Slight Lean Obama: 50 electoral votes (up from 23 electoral votes - 303 total)
Solid Romney: 140 electoral votes (no change)
Strong Lean Romney: 30 electoral votes (no change - 170 total)
Lean Romney: 21 electoral votes (up from 10 electoral votes - 191 total)
Slight Lean Romney: 15 electoral votes (down from 26 electoral votes - 206 total)
Toss-ups: 29 electoral votes (down from 38 electoral votes)
Nothing too significant has changed in recent days. I did move the states of Oregon and New Mexico down from solid Obama to strong lean Obama. He should have no problem winning the two states for a combined 12 electoral votes, but based on recent polling, it appears that he'll win in the range of 5 to 10 points over the Republican challenger. I also flipped around some of the lean Obama states. I previously had Pennsylvania ranked 19th, Nevada 20th and Wisconsin 21st, but due to recent polling, believe the president is now in better shape to win Wisconsin and Nevada than Pennsylvania, although, he should too win all three states for a combined 36 electoral votes. The only other change I made was in labeling the state of Florida and its 29 electoral votes as a true 50-50 toss-up state. I had previously referred to it as "toss-up - advantage Romney," but now believe that each candidate has an equal shot at winning the state. So, for the time being, here are the numbers:
Solid/Strong Lean/Lean Obama: 253 electoral votes
Solid/Strong Lean/Lean Romney: 191 electoral votes
When slight leaners are included, Obama comes away with 303 electoral votes compared to 206 for Romney.
If Florida went to Obama, he'd finish with 332 electoral votes compared to 206 for Romney and if Romney won the state, he'd wind up with 235 electoral votes compared to 303 for President Obama.
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