Not to brag, but I'm a perfect 3 for 3 with my debate predictions.
Debate #1: I predicted Romney would win the snap polls and he won the CBS snap poll 46% to 22% for Obama.
My personal grade for the debate was as follows: Style - Romney, Substance - Obama, Overall - Draw (but since style seems to matter more than substance to the average voter, I admitted that the majority probably saw Romney as the victor).
Debate #2: I went with Biden and the CBS snap poll showed 50% felt Biden won and 31% felt similarly about Paul Ryan.
My grade: Style - Draw, Substance - Biden, Overall - Biden
Debate #3: I picked Obama by around 6 points. The CBS snap poll showed that Obama won by the final count of 37% to 30% for Mitt Romney.
My grade: Style - Obama, Substance - Obama, Overall - Obama
That brings us to the fourth and final debate, which will be held tomorrow night in Boca Raton, Florida and will focus mainly on foreign policy. Of all four debates, this is definitely the most difficult for me to predict.
I will be curious to see what the two candidate's strategies are. The fact is that Obama leads Romney in the area of foreign policy as polls have indicated. However, his lead in the are has been trimmed some over the past 2-3 weeks. The national race appears to be quite even, with Obama perhaps having a very slight lead. With regard to the electoral college, Obama is in even better shape, as he appears to have many more potentially winning routes to 270 electoral votes on election day than Romney. Both camps know this. The Romney camp has said that he won't hold back any punches in Monday night's debate. Will that be the case? Will Obama be just as aggressive as he was in the second presidential debate? Will he play prevent defense and attempt to not make a big gaffe and hope that he's able to hold on to the lead for the following couple weeks? Will he find some middle ground between those two extremes? On Romney's end, will he continue to go after the president on the Benghazi tragedy? Will he hold off some, due to his embarrassing moment on the topic in the second debate? Will he attempt to come across as aggressive, yet not as a jerk while doing so? Will he not care, and be as aggressive as possible, without much worry about any potential repercussions of coming across as a jerk?
As far as foreign policy experience, I give a definite advantage to President Obama. If the Benghazi tragedy never occurred, I'd likely predict that Obama would come out as a solid victor in this final debate. However, regardless of the number of foreign policy successes during the President's first term, the event that is freshest in people's minds is what transpired in Libya. I think that potentially neutralizes things and who wins this debate will largely depend on how the two respond and attack with regard to the Benghazi incident. President Obama did a good job on this front during the second presidential debate. If he performs just as well this next time, I think voters will see him as the winner. If he stumbles, however, then Romney may be seen as the winner.
In the end, I don't think this debate will change a lot of minds. While foreign policy definitely matters to many people, it typically isn't high up on potential voters' priority ladder. Unless one candidate makes a major gaffe, I don't think this debate will effect polling too greatly. The two candidates will likely fire up their base, be told by members of their party that they were the victor and there will still be two weeks to win over undecided voters. So, I'm calling for a draw, with a slight lean toward President Obama. I'm predicting the CBS snap poll will be within the margin of error, but in Obama's favor. If I somehow pull off this very difficult prediction, I may wind up going to Vegas soon and make a bit of money betting on political polls and elections.
Debate #1: I predicted Romney would win the snap polls and he won the CBS snap poll 46% to 22% for Obama.
My personal grade for the debate was as follows: Style - Romney, Substance - Obama, Overall - Draw (but since style seems to matter more than substance to the average voter, I admitted that the majority probably saw Romney as the victor).
Debate #2: I went with Biden and the CBS snap poll showed 50% felt Biden won and 31% felt similarly about Paul Ryan.
My grade: Style - Draw, Substance - Biden, Overall - Biden
Debate #3: I picked Obama by around 6 points. The CBS snap poll showed that Obama won by the final count of 37% to 30% for Mitt Romney.
My grade: Style - Obama, Substance - Obama, Overall - Obama
That brings us to the fourth and final debate, which will be held tomorrow night in Boca Raton, Florida and will focus mainly on foreign policy. Of all four debates, this is definitely the most difficult for me to predict.
I will be curious to see what the two candidate's strategies are. The fact is that Obama leads Romney in the area of foreign policy as polls have indicated. However, his lead in the are has been trimmed some over the past 2-3 weeks. The national race appears to be quite even, with Obama perhaps having a very slight lead. With regard to the electoral college, Obama is in even better shape, as he appears to have many more potentially winning routes to 270 electoral votes on election day than Romney. Both camps know this. The Romney camp has said that he won't hold back any punches in Monday night's debate. Will that be the case? Will Obama be just as aggressive as he was in the second presidential debate? Will he play prevent defense and attempt to not make a big gaffe and hope that he's able to hold on to the lead for the following couple weeks? Will he find some middle ground between those two extremes? On Romney's end, will he continue to go after the president on the Benghazi tragedy? Will he hold off some, due to his embarrassing moment on the topic in the second debate? Will he attempt to come across as aggressive, yet not as a jerk while doing so? Will he not care, and be as aggressive as possible, without much worry about any potential repercussions of coming across as a jerk?
As far as foreign policy experience, I give a definite advantage to President Obama. If the Benghazi tragedy never occurred, I'd likely predict that Obama would come out as a solid victor in this final debate. However, regardless of the number of foreign policy successes during the President's first term, the event that is freshest in people's minds is what transpired in Libya. I think that potentially neutralizes things and who wins this debate will largely depend on how the two respond and attack with regard to the Benghazi incident. President Obama did a good job on this front during the second presidential debate. If he performs just as well this next time, I think voters will see him as the winner. If he stumbles, however, then Romney may be seen as the winner.
In the end, I don't think this debate will change a lot of minds. While foreign policy definitely matters to many people, it typically isn't high up on potential voters' priority ladder. Unless one candidate makes a major gaffe, I don't think this debate will effect polling too greatly. The two candidates will likely fire up their base, be told by members of their party that they were the victor and there will still be two weeks to win over undecided voters. So, I'm calling for a draw, with a slight lean toward President Obama. I'm predicting the CBS snap poll will be within the margin of error, but in Obama's favor. If I somehow pull off this very difficult prediction, I may wind up going to Vegas soon and make a bit of money betting on political polls and elections.
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