A story broke yesterday, that in light of the recent Washington Post Poll, a tie in the 2012 Presidential Election is very possible. The poll showed the two candidates - Barack Obama and Mitt Romney - tied at 47% a piece and if Romney won all the states John McCain did in the 2008 election, plus a few (while Obama nabbed the Omaha electorate in Nebraska), the two would tie 269-269.
What day is this? ::checks calendar::. Ah, that's right - it's July 12th. When's the election again? Oh, in November... I see... So, it's about 4 months from now? Lovely...
In my opinion, as I've stated before, polls are next to meaningless right now. The only significance they have is to illustrate how much ground one candidate or the other has to make up in 4 months and so long as the difference isn't too great, this can be done - through ads, debates, campaigning, etc. Also, while some, myself included, may not agree with the Electoral College system and would rather the election be decided by popular vote or at least a compromise between the two, it is the system we have in place for the time. Due to that, national polls are of less significance than state polls. While Obama has led in most national polls of late, ranging between about 2 and 6 points, that's not as important as how he and Romney are faring in state polls - the battleground states in particular. While, again, I don't see these polls as being of much significance, however, if anything, they've illustrated that Romney does have some catching up to do. Obama leads in: Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Florida and New Hampshire. North Carolina is a toss-up at this point, I'd say. The only state Romney seems to have a clear-cut advantage on, which surprisingly went to Obama in '08, is Indiana. He also leads in Missouri and Arizona, which have leaned Republican in recent elections.
Let's get this straight - it takes 270 electoral votes to win the election and I'd be very surprised to see Obama lose any of the following states: Hawaii (4), Washington (12), Oregon (7), California (55), Nevada (6), New Mexico (5), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Maine (4), Vermont (3), New Hampshire (4), Massachusetts (11), Connecticut (7), Rhode Island (4), New York (29), New Jersey (14), Delaware (3), Maryland (10), Washington D.C. (3), Illinois (20) and Pennsylvania (20). That's 21 states and D.C. worth a combined 257 electoral votes. He'd need 13 to win re-election. Colorado (9) and Virginia (13) are trending more in his direction, which would give him 279 electoral votes. I have a feeling Iowa (6) is as well, which would give him 285. He wouldn't even need Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15) or Missouri (10) to win fairly comfortably. If he won those 21 states and D.C. which I feel he should without much problem, the guy could lose Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, Colorado and Iowa so long as he won Virginia, which would give him exactly 270 electoral votes.
I know the news media is trying to make this election as compelling as possible and drag out that interest for the next 4 months, but come on... While the election will likely be close nationally, with the system we currently have in place - the Electoral College - Obama has the advantage at this point and Romney will have some catching up to do.
What day is this? ::checks calendar::. Ah, that's right - it's July 12th. When's the election again? Oh, in November... I see... So, it's about 4 months from now? Lovely...
In my opinion, as I've stated before, polls are next to meaningless right now. The only significance they have is to illustrate how much ground one candidate or the other has to make up in 4 months and so long as the difference isn't too great, this can be done - through ads, debates, campaigning, etc. Also, while some, myself included, may not agree with the Electoral College system and would rather the election be decided by popular vote or at least a compromise between the two, it is the system we have in place for the time. Due to that, national polls are of less significance than state polls. While Obama has led in most national polls of late, ranging between about 2 and 6 points, that's not as important as how he and Romney are faring in state polls - the battleground states in particular. While, again, I don't see these polls as being of much significance, however, if anything, they've illustrated that Romney does have some catching up to do. Obama leads in: Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Florida and New Hampshire. North Carolina is a toss-up at this point, I'd say. The only state Romney seems to have a clear-cut advantage on, which surprisingly went to Obama in '08, is Indiana. He also leads in Missouri and Arizona, which have leaned Republican in recent elections.
Let's get this straight - it takes 270 electoral votes to win the election and I'd be very surprised to see Obama lose any of the following states: Hawaii (4), Washington (12), Oregon (7), California (55), Nevada (6), New Mexico (5), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Maine (4), Vermont (3), New Hampshire (4), Massachusetts (11), Connecticut (7), Rhode Island (4), New York (29), New Jersey (14), Delaware (3), Maryland (10), Washington D.C. (3), Illinois (20) and Pennsylvania (20). That's 21 states and D.C. worth a combined 257 electoral votes. He'd need 13 to win re-election. Colorado (9) and Virginia (13) are trending more in his direction, which would give him 279 electoral votes. I have a feeling Iowa (6) is as well, which would give him 285. He wouldn't even need Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15) or Missouri (10) to win fairly comfortably. If he won those 21 states and D.C. which I feel he should without much problem, the guy could lose Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, Colorado and Iowa so long as he won Virginia, which would give him exactly 270 electoral votes.
I know the news media is trying to make this election as compelling as possible and drag out that interest for the next 4 months, but come on... While the election will likely be close nationally, with the system we currently have in place - the Electoral College - Obama has the advantage at this point and Romney will have some catching up to do.
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