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Showing posts with the label 538

Where things stand two weeks from the election

As of Tuesday, we were exactly two weeks away from election day, so I thought I'd delve into the odds and my own personal predictions. As of this moment, numbers-guru Nate Silver has Democratic nominee at an 84.2% chance of winning the election and Republican nominee Donald Trump at a 15.8% chance of winning. On average, Silver has Clinton winning 333.4 electoral votes and 49.6% of the popular vote, while he has Trump winning 203.3 electoral votes and 43.3% of the popular vote. Some of Silver's most surprising predictions (to this point) have to be the following:  1) Arizona (11 electoral votes): Clinton - 52.6%, Trump - 47.4% 2) Iowa (6 electoral votes): Clinton - 54.6%, Trump - 45.4% 3) Ohio (18 electoral votes): Clinton - 52.8%, Trump - 47.2% 4) North Carolina (15 electoral votes): Clinton - 67.4%, Trump - 32.6% 5) Florida (29 electoral votes): Clinton - 69.7%, Trump - 30.3% With the increase in Latino voters, Arizona has been a state Democrats hav...