The Kind-Hearted Smart Aleck

Conservative columnist and analyst Mona Charen just published an an article on Politico , titled, "How a Democrat Can Win Over a Never-Trumper: And if you don't think you need us, you should think twice," and I felt the need to comment on it. First off, for those who don't know, a "Never-Trumper" is a conservative/Republican who can't stand Donald Trump and vows to never vote for him. In her article, Ms. Charen defines the term, tells us why she constitutes as a Never-Trumper, and shares her semi-willingness of voting for a Democrat in the 2020 presidential election. Here are a few snippets on which I'd like to comment: - "You may think you don't need us-but you'd be wrong. I know things are looking good for you: Trump's approval rating has never topped 46 percent, and among younger voters, millennials and Gens Zers, his support is 30 percent or below. But Trump was elected with the lowest approval ratings of any major candidat...

Due to a new Monmouth poll that was released yesterday, Democrats are claiming the world is going to end, while Republicans are claiming their party has been saved. Let's all stand back, take a deep breath, and try to see the larger picture. Monmouth, which is a reputable pollster, showed Donald Trump's approval rating jumping 10 points from 32% to 42% in the past month. Trump's approval average on RealClearPolitics is 41.5%, so it's not as though Monmouth's latest poll is some kind of crazed outlier. That's not the case when it comes to their findings on the Generic Congressional Vote, however. The Monmouth poll suggests that Republicans have narrowed the gap to 2 points. In the 11 other most recently taken polls regarding the subject, that gap is an average of 8 points. So it remains to be seen if Democrats truly have anything to worry about with regard to the midterm elections. When it comes to Donald Trump's approval rating, however, let's dig a litt...

As long time readers should know, I've long been an opponent of the electoral college. Votes in Wyoming shouldn't count for more than votes in California. It should be one person, one vote. Period. In saying that, however, while I'm a stark opponent of the electoral college, I've gotta say, if Democrats actually went out and voted, we'd be next to impossible to stop. Here's how party affiliation numbers break down state by state: Alabama (9 electoral votes): 52% Rep (Republican), 35% Dem (Democrat), 17% difference (Rep 9, Dem 0) Alaska (3 EVs): 39% Rep, 32% Dem, 7% diff (Rep 12, Dem 0) Arizona (11 EVs): 40% Rep, 39% Dem, 1% diff (Rep 23, Dem 0) Arkansas (6 EVs): 46% Rep, 38% Dem, 8% diff (Rep 29, Dem 0) California (55 EVs): Dem 49%, Rep 30%, 19% diff (Dem 55, Rep 29) Colorado (9 EVs): Dem 42%, Rep 41%, 1% diff (Dem 64, Rep 29) Connecticut (7 EVs): Dem 50%, Rep 32%, 18% diff (Dem 71, Rep 29) Delaware (3 EVs): Dem 55%, Rep 29%, 26% diff (Dem 74, Re...

There's been a great deal of debate about the Electoral College since Donald Trump's victory last Tuesday night, for while he exceeded the necessary 270 electoral votes to win the presidency, he currently trails Hillary Clinton in the popular vote by over 1.3 million. Electoral College defenders continually say that the current system makes things more fair for the smaller, less populated states, as it prevents the larger states from having too great an influence on the results. Going through the math, I can say, without any hesitation, that's complete hogwash. Let's first take a look at the population and electoral vote count of all 50 states (as well as D.C.), and then showcase how many people one electoral vote represents. 1) California: 38,332,521, 55 EVs, 1 EV per 696,955 people 2) Texas: 26,448,193, 38 EVs, 1 EV per 696,005 3) New York: 19,651,127, 29 EVs, 1 EV per 677,625 4) Florida: 19,552,860, 29 EVs, 1 EV per 674,237 5) Illinois: 12,882,135, 20 EVs,...

So long as there aren't any major shifts in the states which have yet to be officially projected, it appears as though Republican nominee Donald Trump will end up with 306 electoral votes, compared to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's 232. Clinton leads in the popular vote, however, as she currently has 60,981,l18 votes, compared to 60,350,241 for Trump - over a 600,000 vote difference. With most of the remaining uncounted votes being in the blue states of New York, Washington, and California, it's predicted that Clinton will wind up with at least 2 million more votes than her opponent. If we made the Electoral College proportional, the results would currently be as follows: AK (3): Trump - 52.9%, Clinton - 37.7% (DT - 1.59 , HRC - 1.13) ID (4): Trump - 59.2%, Clinton - 27.6% (DT - 2.37, HRC - 1.10) MT (3): Trump - 56.5%, Clinton - 36.0% (DT - 1.70, HRC - 1.08) ND (3): Trump - 64.1%, Clinton - 27.8% (DT - 1.92, HRC - 0.83) WI (10): Trump - 47.9%, Clinton - 46.9...

It's time we finally admit it - the United States of America is not a democracy. Sure, we may often like to brag about how we're the freest country in the world, that it's our duty to help spread our democratic principles to other parts of the globe, and even that we're the greatest country in recorded history. Unfortunately, our actions don't validate these words. A democracy is a "government by the people; a form of government in which the supreme power is vested in the people and exercised directly by them or by their elected agents under a free electoral system." Yet we continue to make it more difficult for certain demographics to vote on election day, we refuse to acknowledge the day as a national holiday (or at least hold it during the weekend), and at the end of the day, it's not a guarantee that the candidate with the most votes will be rewarded the presidency. Let's take this past election as a prime example. In this country, there ...

Tomorrow's election day, so as has been the case the past couple of election cycles, here are my state-by-state predictions. 2008: 51 out of 51 (including D.C.) 2012: 50 out of 51 (Florida) Hillary Clinton (D)  (states listed from most likely to least likely victories) 1. Washington, D.C.: 3 electoral votes (3 total) 2. Vermont: 3 electoral votes (6 total) 3. Hawaii: 4 electoral votes (10 total) 4. Maryland: 10 electoral votes (20 total) 5. Delaware: 3 electoral votes (23 total) 6. Rhode Island: 4 electoral votes (27 total) 7. California: 55 electoral votes (82 total) 8. Massachusetts: 11 electoral votes (93 total) 9. New York: 29 electoral votes (122 total) 10. Illinois: 20 electoral votes (142 total) 11. Connecticut: 7 electoral votes (149 total) 12. New Jersey: 14 electoral votes (163 total) 13. Washington: 12 electoral votes (175 total) 14. Oregon: 7 electoral votes (182 total) 15. New Mexico: 5 electoral votes (187 total) 16. Virginia: 13 electoral votes (...

While Hillary Clinton currently leads all the national polls by between 5 and 10 points, that doesn't even begin to show how good of shape she's in when it comes to the electoral college. Donald Trump and his supporters can deny it all they'd like, they're in serious trouble. Let's look at the electoral map for a second. Here are very blue states in which Trump has less chance of winning than I do of beating Usain Bolt in the 100 m after drinking with Ryan Lochte (Keep in mind it takes 270 electoral votes to win the election): 1) Hawaii: 4 electoral votes 2) Washington: 12 electoral votes (16 total) 3) California: 55 electoral votes (71 total) 4) Illinois: 20 electoral votes (91 total) 5) Vermont: 3 electoral votes (94 total) 6) Massachusetts: 11 electoral votes (105 total) 7) Rhode Island: 4 electoral votes (109 total) 8) Connecticut: 7 electoral votes (116 total) 9) Delaware: 3 electoral votes (119 total) 10) Maryland: 10 electoral votes (129 total) 11...

I'm really loving this post-gerrymandering-winner-by-congressional-district election idea.  If applied to the entire country, one Willard Mittens Romney would have won the election with 276 electoral votes, while losing the popular vote by 4,967,5 98. In the state of Ohio, he would have won 12 of the 18 electoral votes (66.67%), even though he lost the state. In other news, it's being rumored that starting in the 2013-2014 NFL season, home teams will be rewarded 12 points for a touchdown, 6 for a field goal, 4 for a safety, and 2 for an extra point. As announcer Al Michaels would put it: "Even while the visiting Cleveland Browns scored 21 points on three touchdowns and extra points, they were no match for the home team Cincinnati Bengals, who came away with 28 points on two touchdowns and extra points. Now, to hear his reaction on the game, we have Browns tailback Trent Richardson with Erin Andrews. Erin?" Andrews: "Thanks, Al. So, what is your first reaction to ...

So it appears as if some Republicans are trying to alter the winner-take-all-electoral-vote model to the win-by-congressional-district model in some Democratic-leaning or battleground states that President Obama won in the 2012 presidential election. These states include: Ohio (18), Virginia (13), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Pennsylvania (20), and Florida (29) - worth a combined 106 electoral votes. Due to Republican gerrymandering, this would have propelled Mitt Romney to the presidency this past election, even though he lost the overall vote by close to five million. With this new model, even though Obama defeated Romney by close to four percentage points in the state of Virginia in November, he would have netted just four of the state's thirteen electoral votes. That's right. In a state where Obama won by roughly 150,000 votes, Romney would have won 9 electoral votes to the president's 4. Make sense? I didn't think so. If the Republican Party is able to get away...

Virginia Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli recently spoke on WMAL radio with hosts Brian Wilson and Cheri Jacobus about voter fraud and how e-mails from listeners of theirs proved the state of Virginia and with that, the election, was stolen by one Barack Obama. Of course, no evidence was provided by the listeners. They just saw some strange things happen - like women, minorities, and young people vote. Who knew? Part of the discussion went as follows: Jacobus: "There needs to be a way for people to be able to report this stuff and have it looked into. I mean, just across the country, we're hearing so many stories. And people can talk about it, but nothing seems to be done. And, in fact in these states where voter ID is required to vote..." Wilson: "Photo ID." Jacobus: "Photo ID. Voter photo ID. Obama lost every one of those states. He can't win a state where photo ID is required. So clearly there's something going on out there and ...

In the run-up to the 2012 presidential election, the Republican super PAC - American Crossroads - spent around $300 million on advertising. How did American Crossroads fare? According to the Sunlight Foundation, which tracks money in politics - only 6% of Crossroads' spending went to winners. For math majors out there, that means 94% of the organization's spending went to losing candidates. To put it another way - if Crossroads had taken a 1,000-question exam, they would have answered only 60 questions correctly, while answering 940 of them incorrectly. Judging by those numbers, I think we can all agree that American Crossroads failed miserably, right? Not so fast... As Mitt Romney's campaign manager - Matt Rhoades - recently stated with regard to Crossroads and other like-super PACs: "[They] had a very positive impact on leveling the playing field in target states." He continued by saying: "Obama for America had a strategy to put Governor Romney and hi...

I think most people would agree that the electoral college is not the optimal way of electing a president. Most seem to feel the optimal way of going about this is through the popular vote. I don't think that's ideal either, however.  Over the past few days, I've read and heard multiple people throw out the idea of basing the electoral college on percentages. For example - at this current time, Obama has received 59% of the vote in California, while Romney has received 39%. The state is worth 55 electoral votes, so Obama would receive 32.5 (.59 x 55) and Romney would receive 21.5 (.39 x 55). The most recent person who shared this idea with me contended that Mitt Romney would have won the election if this had been the electoral college format. After going through the numbers, however, I can say that's not the case. The final electoral vote numbers would have been much closer, but President Obama would still have been elected to a second term in the Oval Office. At th...

The supposed party of responsibility is at it again - finding others to blame for their defeat in the election. Not only did they fall short in the presidential election, but lost seats in both chambers of Congress as well. So, what are some of these reasons for defeat that the Republican Party has been citing in the days following the election? Let me list off a few: 1) The electoral college - When President Obama was announced as the winner of the 2012 presidential election, he had a smaller share of the overall popular vote than did Mitt Romney. This caused an uproar among many in conservative circles at first. What they failed to realize, however, is that there were millions of votes yet to be tallied and as of now, President Obama leads by approximately 3,000,000 votes nationally to go along with his 332 electoral votes. This theory lasted all but about 28 minutes. There are stoners' theories about being able to fly with their arms that have lasted longer than that. 2) G...

With most all of the votes counted, I'm now going to see just how well I did with my predictions. Here are my predictions, along with the results (for the time being - some may be subject to change ever so slightly as more votes come in). Solid Obama - all of these states (and D.C.) should go Obama's direction by at the very least, the upper single digits and in many cases, well over 10 points. I don't see any way that Romney wins any of these 17 states (including D.C.). 1. Washington, D.C.: 3 electoral votes (3 overall) (Obama - 91%, Romney - 7%/Obama by 84%) 2. Hawaii: 4 (7) (Obama - 70%, Romney - 28%/Obama by 42%) 3. Vermont: 3 (10) (Obama - 67%, Romney - 31%/Obama by 36%) 4. New York: 29 (39) (Obama - 63%, Romney - 36%/Obama by 27%) 5. Illinois: 20 (59) (Obama - 57%, Romney - 41%/Obama by 16%) 6. Maryland: 10 (69) (Obama - 62%, Romney - 36%/Obama by 26%) 7. Delaware: 3 (72) (Obama - 59%, Romney - 40%/Obama by 19%) 8. Rhode Island: 4 (76) (Obama - 63%, Romney ...

We're now less than 24 hours away from the first state polls closing. I was going to post this tomorrow morning, but will have more to do tomorrow than I had initially anticipated, so I thought I'd release this tonight instead. As stated in my last such update, I will order the states for each candidate from the state they're most likely to win to the state which is most likely to wind up being a toss-up. Solid Obama - all of these states (and D.C.) should go Obama's direction by at the very least, the upper single digits and in many cases, well over 10 points. I don't see any way that Romney wins any of these 17 states (including D.C.). 1. Washington, D.C.: 3 electoral votes (3 overall) 2. Hawaii: 4 (7) 3. Vermont: 3 (10) 4. New York: 29 (39) 5. Illinois: 20 (59) 6. Maryland: 10 (69) 7. Delaware: 3 (72) 8. Rhode Island: 4 (76) 9. California: 55 (131) 10. Massachusetts: 11 (142) 11. Washington: 12 (154) 12. Maine: 4 (158) 13. New Jersey: 14 (172) 14...

I'm a resident in the state of Ohio. Being originally from Nebraska, which is redder than a rash on Rudolph's nose, elections were more boring than watching a miniature a NASCAR race in slow-motion. We saw less of the presidential candidates than we saw of Bigfoot running through cornfields.  Yes, four years prior to the election, we knew who was going to win - the Republican candidate. That's not the case in Ohio, where we see the candidates more than we see some members of our immediate family. I'm surprised presidential candidates haven't bought homes in the Buckeye state for as much time as they spend here during election season. When they travel back home, they probably wake up some nights missing Ohio and thinking, "I wish I was back home. Wait...what am I saying? I am home! Ohio's home... What? Where am I? I'm so confused!" I admit, it's quite a bit more exciting in this state than in Nebraska around election time, because it truly fee...

As I promised about a week ago, whenever I see a shift in some state poll data which could potentially alter the state of the race, even if to the slightest degree, I'll update my electoral college projections. So here I am to do just that. Since there's less than a week to go until the election and it appears as if polling is about to slow some due to Hurricane Sandy, I thought I'd release one more update before my final one on the morning of the election. As stated in my last such update, I will order the states for each candidate from the state they're most likely to win to the state which is most likely to wind up being a toss-up. Solid Obama - all of these states (and D.C.) should go Obama's direction by at the very least, the upper single digits and in many cases, well over 10 points. I don't see any way that Romney wins any of these 17 states (including D.C.). 1. Washington, D.C.: 3 electoral votes (3 overall) 2. Hawaii: 4 (7) 3. Vermont: 3 (10) 4....

As I promised a few days ago, whenever I see a shift in some state poll data which could potentially alter the state of the race, even if to the slightest degree, I'll update my electoral college projections. So here I am to do just that. As there's just a little over a week left until the election, I'm guessing I'll have 2-3 more updates, with the final one being the morning of election day. As stated in my last such update, I will order the states for each candidate from the state they're most likely to win to the state which is most likely to wind up being a toss-up. Solid Obama - all of these states (and D.C.) should go Obama's direction by at the very least, the upper single digits and in many cases, well over 10 points. I don't see any way that Romney wins any of these 17 states (including D.C.). 1. Washington, D.C.: 3 electoral votes (3 overall) 2. Hawaii: 4 (7) 3. Vermont: 3 (10) 4. New York: 29 (39) 5. Illinois: 20 (59) 6. Maryland: 10 (69)...