42% is apparently the new 60%...

Due to a new Monmouth poll that was released yesterday, Democrats are claiming the world is going to end, while Republicans are claiming their party has been saved. Let's all stand back, take a deep breath, and try to see the larger picture. Monmouth, which is a reputable pollster, showed Donald Trump's approval rating jumping 10 points from 32% to 42% in the past month. Trump's approval average on RealClearPolitics is 41.5%, so it's not as though Monmouth's latest poll is some kind of crazed outlier. That's not the case when it comes to their findings on the Generic Congressional Vote, however. The Monmouth poll suggests that Republicans have narrowed the gap to 2 points. In the 11 other most recently taken polls regarding the subject, that gap is an average of 8 points. So it remains to be seen if Democrats truly have anything to worry about with regard to the midterm elections. When it comes to Donald Trump's approval rating, however, let's dig a little deeper into the numbers. A Gallup state-by-state poll was just released. Here's how those numbers break down, starting with the highest approval rating (I'll include the state's electoral votes in parentheses):

1) West Virginia (5): 61%
2) North Dakota (3): 57%
2) Wyoming (3): 57%
4) South Dakota (3): 54%
5) Alabama (9): 54%
5) Idaho (4): 54%
5) Oklahoma (7): 54%
8) Montana (3): 52%
9) Kentucky (8): 51%
10) Alaska (3): 50%
10) Arkansas (6): 50%
10) Tennessee (11): 50%
13) Louisiana (8): 49%
13) Nebraska (5): 49%
15) Kansas (6): 48%
15) Mississippi (6): 48%
15) South Carolina (9): 48%
15) Utah (6): 48%
19) Missouri (10): 47%
20) Ohio (18): 45%
21) Indiana (11): 44%
22) Iowa (6): 43%
23) Maine (4): 42%
23) Nevada (6): 42%
23) New Hampshire (4): 42%
23) Pennsylvania (20): 42%
27) Arizona (11): 41%
27) Florida (29): 41%
27) Georgia (16): 41%
27) Wisconsin (10): 41%
31) Michigan (16): 40%
31) North Carolina (15): 40%
33) Texas (38): 39%
34) Colorado (9): 37%
34) Minnesota (10): 37%
34) Virginia (13): 37%
37) Delaware (3): 36%
37) Oregon (7): 36%
39) New Mexico (5): 35%
40) New Jersey (14): 34%
40) Washington (12): 34%
42) Illinois (20): 33%
43) Rhode Island (4): 32%
44) Connecticut (7): 31%
45) Maryland (10): 30%
45) New York (29): 30%
47) California (55): 29%
47) Hawaii (4): 29%
49) Massachusetts (11): 27%
50) Vermont (3): 26%
51) Washington, D.C. (3): 6%
Overall: 38%

Donald Trump is at 50% or above in only 12 states. According to these numbers, here's how Donald Trump would fare against a Democratic opponent in the 2020 presidential election:

Trump (50%+): 65 electoral votes (EVs)
Democrat: 473 EVs

Trump (46%+): 115 EVs
Democrat: 423 EVs

Trump (41%+): 250 EVs
Democrat: 288 EVs

So both Democrats and Republicans should settle down about the new Monmouth poll (for different reasons). If the 2020 election were held today and Donald Trump was required to earn only 41% of the vote to win a state, the Democratic candidate would still win by 38 electoral votes. No matter what the GOP wants to believe, 42 is not the new 60...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

http://news.gallup.com/poll/226454/trump-approval-highest-west-virginia-lowest-vermont.aspx