I keep seeing a video being spread on social media of Trump's "20 promises," so I decided to fact-check it.
1. "Seal the border, and stop the migrant invasion"
MAGA’s “migrant invasion” rhetoric is incredibly misleading. Here are the annual numbers for undocumented immigrants and how much of the U.S. population they’ve comprised over the years:
2006: 11.55M (3.9%)
2007: 11.78M (3.9%)
2008: 11.6M (3.8%)
2009: 10.75M (3.5%)
2010: 11.6M (3.8%)
2011: 11.5M (3.7%)
2012: 11.4M (3.6%)
2013: 11.3M (3.6%)
2014: 11.3M (3.5%)
2015: 11.0M (3.4%)
2016: 10.7M (3.3%)
2017: 11.4M (3.5%)
2018: 11.4M (3.5%)
2019: 11.48M (3.5%)
2020: ? (?) – due to COVID
2021: 10.22M (3.1%)
2022: 11.5M (3.5%)
2023: ? (?) – don’t have the numbers yet
As can be seen, the numbers on the undocumented-immigration front have been incredibly steady over the past decade and a half, through 2 Republican and 2 Democratic Presidents. Also, immigration reform has been on the Congressional slate since George W. Bush was President. Who has continually brought said legislation to a halt? The Republican Party. Funny, isn’t it?
https://immigration.procon.org/us-undocumented-immigrant-population-estimates/
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/senate-republicans-block-bipartisan-border-package-scrapping-deal-they-had-demanded-from-democrats
https://www.reuters.com/article/world/u-s-senate-kills-bush-immigration-reform-bill-idUSN28344160/
2. "Carry out the largest deportation operation in American history"
Yeah, that’s NOT going to happen. As reported by Laura Strickler, Didi Martinez, Chloe Atkins, and Julia Ainsley of NBC News:
“The ICE budget for transportation and deportation in 2023 was $420 million, and in that year the agency deported 142,580 people. Costs of deportation vary widely depending on the country and include variables such as commercial flight costs, security needs and the use of charter flights. Removal of 10 million people could easily cost in the tens of billions.
But the millions of deportees would also have to be detained and housed prior to removal. Currently ICE manages 41,500 beds across 200 jail and detention centers at a cost of $57,378 per year per bed, according to public budget documents. In the event of a mass deportation, the government would need to pay for far more beds.
The combined cost, Andrews said, ‘would be astronomical.’” (Abigail Andrews, professor of urban studies and planning at the University of California-San Diego, who has been studying deportation data over the past decade)
Just as I said, like Steve Bannon being named "sexiest man of the year," this is NEVER going to happen.
https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/mass-deportation-migrants-trump-actually-work-rcna161637g
3. "End inflation, and make America affordable again"
End inflation? Since 2004, the only time we’ve been consistently sub-zero inflation was during our greatest recession since the Great Depression. Funnily enough, inflation was at 2.5% when Trump took office in January, 2017, and 2.5% when COVID struck the U.S., in January, 2020. Once employment reached pre-pandemic levels, as of June, 2022, inflation has decreased 67%, from 9.1% to 3.0%. Let me repeat that. When we account for COVID, inflation decreased 0.0% under Trump and 67.0% under Biden.
https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm
4. "Make America the dominant energy producer in the world, by far!"
Um, here are the energy production numbers through 2022:
1. China: 137.838 quadrillion Btu
2. United States: 98.526 quadrillion Btu
Let’s place this in a greater context, though. China’s population is 4x the size of the United States. When you account for that, here are the numbers:
United States: 295,607,561 Btu/h
China: 97,611,898 Btu/h
Sure, since there’s no such thing as perfection, there’s always room for improvement, but having said that, I’d say we’re doing pretty well right now. I’d love to hear Trump’s ideas for world domination in energy production, though. It could be sadly entertaining.
https://www.eia.gov/international/rankings/world?pa=12&u=0&f=A&v=none&y=01%2F01%2F2022
5. "Stop outsourcing, and turn the United States into a manufacturing superpower"
This is funny on multiple fronts. First off, we lost 192k manufacturing jobs in Trump’s 4 years. If that doesn’t scream “superpower,” I don’t know what does!
Secondly, Trump earned up to $160M from foreign countries while he was president. Not only that, most of his products are made overseas. Trump ties? Oh, those are made in China (or as Trump pronounces it, “Jiiiiina!”). Trump suits? Indonesia. Trump eyeglasses? Jina again. A Trump white golf hat? You guessed it, China. A Trump mug? Thailand. A Trump shoe bag and duffel bag? China. A Trump medallion? Any guesses? Okay, yes, China. Trump Vodka? The Netherlands and Germany. Trump’s crystal glasses? Slovenia. Trump Home? Germany and Turkey. Trump hotel? Well, the chandeliers hailed from Austria; the hallway lamps came from Jiiina; the phones were made in Malaysia; the televisions were manufactured in South Korea; the towels came form India; the robes were made in China; and the glasses came from Italy. Oh, and let’s not forget the hotel’s gift shop. A lovely golf hat from Bangladesh can be found here; a Trump-branded fleece, which was made in Pakistan; a pullover which came from Vietnam; and both Trump conditioner and Trump body butter, which hailed from Canada.
But sure, he’s going to stop outsourcing. Excuse me for a moment, please… 🤣🤣🤣
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES3000000001
https://www.citizensforethics.org/reports-investigations/crew-investigations/trump-made-up-to-160-million-from-foreign-countries-as-president/
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-event-touted-made-america-goods-lot-his-merchandise-couldn-n893656
6. "Large tax cuts for workers, and no tax on tips!"
Really? Just like his 2017 tax bill? How’s that working out? Let’s delve into the numbers, shall we?
The average tax cut for the top 1% of earners in 2025 will be $60,000, while it will be less than $500 for the bottom 60%.
On average, those who made $114,000 or less in 2016 saw absolutely zero change in earnings due to the tax cut. Meanwhile, executives who already made an average of $989,000 a year, saw an average increase of $50,000.
In the corporate provisions of the bill, 53% of the benefits went to the top 5 percentile, while just 13.5% of it went to the bottom 60 percentile.
In other words, the 2017 Trump tax bill was yet another trickle-down economics scam. All it did was exacerbate the already growing wage disparity between those at the top and everybody else, further leading this country down the path toward an oligarchy.
As far as the no-taxes-on-tips proposal, it’s more a catchy slogan than a brilliant idea. Many in the service industry, who are reliant on tips, don’t make enough money to mandate they pay personal income taxes. Secondly, they make up only 2.5% of workers. Perhaps most importantly, if such a bill were to pass Congress and be signed by a President, what’s to stop other employers from implementing a tip-based income for their employees? If you’re annoyed by how much tips cost at restaurants and bars now, just imagine how costly it would be for that to expand to other types of businesses. On top of all that, it reduces federal revenue. Besides that, though, it’s a genius plan. 👍🙄. Here’s a crazy idea – increase service workers’ pay!
https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-tax/the-2017-trump-tax-law-was-skewed-to-the-rich-expensive-and-failed-to-deliver
https://taxfoundation.org/blog/tipping-trump-tax-on-tips/
7. "Defend our Constitution, our Bill of Rights, and our fundamental freedoms, including freedom of speech, freedom of religion, and the right to keep and bear arms"
This may be my favorite of the lot. Seriously, how can anyone in their right mind believe this bullsh*t?
Here’s what Trump said about the Constitution following his defeat in the 2020 election, via Truth Social:
“Do you throw the Presidential Election Results of 2020 OUT and declare the RIGHTFUL WINNER, or do you have a NEW ELECTION? A Massive Fraud of this type and magnitude allows for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution.”
The man literally tried to wipe his a$$ with the Constitution and throw it in the trash. Okay, perhaps not literally. Well, you know what? It could go either way. Regardless, the man tried to overturn a presidential election, undermining the U.S. Constitution.
When it comes to freedom of speech, this was reported by the Brennan Center in 2017:
“Yesterday, in an interview with ABC’s Jonathan Karl, Reince Priebus, President Trump’s Chief of Staff, said that the administration is considering pushing to change the First Amendment to make it easier for the White House to sue media organizations, and that the media needs ‘to be more responsible with how they report the news.’”
In his 4 years in office, Trump posted 1,771 anti-media tweets, which equates to about 37 per month, or a little over one a day.
Freedom of religion? Two words: Muslim ban.
When it comes to the Second Amendment, Trump has been all over the place. He wants to appear progressively more staunch in his beliefs in gun-rights absolutism, however. Given that, he’s unlikely to speak much about the time he banned bump stocks. That’s right; on December 18th, 2018, the Trump administration clarified “that bump stocks and similar devices fall within the federal prohibition on machine guns and are therefore illegal under federal law.”
https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/03/politics/trump-constitution-truth-social/index.html
https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/trump-administrations-attack-free-speech-sets-dangerous-precedent
https://pressgazette.co.uk/media-audience-and-business-data/trump-vs-media-freedom-of-press-distrust/
https://immigrationhistory.org/item/muslim-travel-ban/
https://apnews.com/article/supreme-court-guns-bump-stocks-b3bd1b4163d78514a6d5acc5b44c8b3d
https://www.bradyunited.org/about-us/press/more-than-one-year-after-las-vegas-massacre-trump-administration-bans-bump-stocks
8. "Prevent World War Three, restore peace in Europe and in the Middle East, and build a great iron dome missile defense shield over our entire country – all made in America"
Restore peace? The Israel-Palestine conflict has been ongoing since 1947. If Trump is referring to his so-called “peace deal,” let’s allow the center-, fact-biased Associated Press to tell us about it:
“But while the optics of Tuesday’s event will evoke the groundbreaking agreements that ended decades of war between Israel and neighboring Egypt and Jordan, and that launched the peace process with the Palestinians, the reality is quite different.
The United Arab Emirates will establish diplomatic relations with Israel, a fellow U.S. ally it has never gone to war with, formalizing ties that go back several years. The agreement cements an informal alliance against Iran and could pave the way for the UAE to acquire more advanced U.S. weapons, while leaving the far more contentious Israeli-Palestinian conflict as intractable as ever.”
Lastly, experts have said the iron-dome missile defense idea is, well, basically stupid. Our neighbors to the north and south, Canada and Mexico, are allies. What’s directly to our east and west? A sh*t-load of water. In other words, building an iron-dome missile defense would make about as much sense as windmill-cancer.
https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/israeli-palestinian-conflict
https://apnews.com/article/peace-process-israel-iran-united-arab-emirates-jerusalem-c87ca011c2cd4321d587e9684dfb84e1
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/now-gop-policy-build-us-iron-dome-trumps/story?id=111853708
9. "End the weaponization of government against the American people"
I take it he’s referring to January 6, 2021, where over 1,265 of his supporters were arrested for ravaging the U.S. Capitol. Of these arrests, 718 pled guilty – of which 213 pled guilty to felonies. These included: assaults on police officers, obstructing law enforcement, and seditious conspiracy. In addition to that, 467 have been incarcerated.
At the end of the day, this is just more projection by Trump. He attempted to weaponize the U.S. government against the American people, in attempting to undermine the U.S. Constitution, by illegally overturning a presidential election, and going so far as to incite an insurrection at the U.S. Capitol to do so.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/3-years-jan-6-numbers-1200-charged-460/story?id=106140326
10. "Stop the migrant crime epidemic, demolish the foreign drug cartels, crush gang violence, and lock up violent offenders"
A headline does not make a trend. No matter how much press a couple of horrific crimes perpetrated by undocumented immigrants receives, that does not necessarily translate to an epidemic. In fact, the reality of the matter couldn’t be further removed from said assertion.
The truth is, when illegal immigration fell during the peak of the pandemic, the murder rate rose. Contrarily, it decreased after lockdowns were lifted and illegal immigration increased. This isn’t the only data point suggesting the GOP fear-tactic is false. In fact, in a recently released study, it showcased that undocumented immigrants have been less likely to commit crimes and/or be incarcerated than native-born Americans for over a century and a half. The report also showed that undocumented immigrants have lower felony arrest rates than native-born Americans.
Oh, and as far as locking up violent offenders goes, fortunately the Biden administration has made that easier, as we’ve seen a historic drop in violent crime this year. He’ll be awaiting your thank you card, lil Donnie boy.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/18/briefing/the-myth-of-migrant-crime.html
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/new-fbi-stats-show-historic-declines-violent-crime-rate-murder-showing-rcna156573
11. "Rebuild our cities, including Washington DC, making them safe, clean, and beautiful again."
I’m not even sure what he means here. A little elaboration, please? Oh, this is probably just him taking credit for Biden's infrastructure bill. Got it.
12. "Strengthen and modernize our military, making it, without question, the strongest and most powerful in the world"
Well, according to Global Firepower, we already possess the strongest, most powerful military in the world. Here is the top 5; I’ll include the power-index score:
1. United States: 0.0699
2. Russia: 0.0702
3. China: 0.0706
4. India: 0.1023
5. South Korea: 0.1416
Also, if we want to be logical, it’d make more sense to cut defense spending. The U.S. spends $877B annually on our military. In comparison, the next ten countries combined spend $848B on their militaries (China, Russia, India, Saudi Arabia, United Kingdom, Germany, France, South Korea, Japan, and Ukraine, respectively).
https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php
https://www.pgpf.org/chart-archive/0053_defense-comparison
13. "Keep the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency"
Oh, so he’s admitting the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency was unphased during the Biden years? Fascinating. The fact of the matter is the U.S. dollar has been the world’s reserve currency since 1944, and the odds are slim said status would change, regardless of who wins in November. But sure, Drumpf, take credit for it. 👍🙄
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex-currencies/092316/how-us-dollar-became-worlds-reserve-currency.aspg
14. "Fight for and protect social security and Medicare with no cuts, including no changes to the retirement age"
Oh, really? In a March interview with CNBC, Trump said the following:
“There is a lot you can do in terms of entitlements, in terms of cutting and in terms of also the theft and the bad management of entitlements. There’s tremendous amounts of things and numbers of things you can do.”
As there is a great deal of ambiguous language in the aforementioned quote, I won’t leave it isolated. Kate Sullivan and Tami Luhby of CNN also reported the following:
“When Trump was president, his administration’s budget proposals included spending cuts to Social Security, primarily by targeting disability benefits, and Medicare, largely by reducing provider payments. Trump also signaled in an interview with CNBC in 2020 that he was open to cutting federal entitlements to reduce the federal deficit.”
The man is a walking, talking contradiction; he just can't help himself...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/11/politics/trump-entitlements-social-security-medicare/index.html
15. "Cancel the electric vehicle mandate and cut costly and burdensome regulations"
Well, no such mandate exists, so cancelling it shouldn’t be too difficult. As reported by FactCheck dot org:
“…As the New York Times wrote in April, ‘The E.P.A. cannot mandate that carmakers sell a certain number of electric vehicles.’
Instead, that month, the Environmental Protection Agency introduced new proposed rules that would significantly restrict the amount of emissions from light-, medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, which includes passenger cars, trucks and large pickups and vans. If approved, the proposed standards, with some exceptions, would phase in starting in 2027.”
https://www.factcheck.org/2023/10/trumps-misleading-claims-about-electric-vehicles-and-the-auto-industry/
16. "Cut federal funding for any school pushing critical race theory, radical gender ideology, and other inappropriate racial, sexual, or political content on our children"
Again, critical race theory isn’t being taught in k-12, so this won’t be very difficult. The vague terminology in the latter half of the proposal is rather troubling, however. How does Trump define “radical gender ideology” and/or “inappropriate racial, sexual, or political content”? Call it a hunch, but I’m guessing he’s referring to that which he doesn’t believe or support. …and here I thought he was all about protecting free speech...
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/teaching-critical-race-theory-isn-t-happening-classrooms-teachers-say-n1272945
17. "Keep men out of women’s sports"
Again, this is largely a non-issue and is simply used as a scare-tactic. How many female college athletes are there? Over 229,000. How many college transgender athletes are there? At most, 100. Of the 1.3 million transgender individuals in the United States, roughly 38.5% of them are transgender women. Given that, let’s round it up to 39. So, there we have it, 39 transgender women college athletes, out of 229,000 female college athletes, or 0.017%. I know Republicans often obsess over the top 1%, but they really outdid themselves here, obsessing over 0.017%.
https://www.newsweek.com/how-many-transgender-athletes-play-womens-sports-1796006
18. "Deport pro-Hamas radicals and make our college campuses safe and patriotic again"
I refer you back to #7 on this list:
“Defend our Constitution, our Bill of Rights, and our fundamental freedoms, including freedom of speech, freedom of religion, and the right to keep and bear arms”
19. "Secure our elections, including same day voting, voter identification, paper ballots, and proof of citizenship"
Here’s what Trump’s own election officials had to say about the 2020 election:
“The November 3rd election was the most secure in American history. Right now, across the country, election officials are reviewing and double-checking the entire election process prior to finalizing the result.”
Psst, you lost. Get over it.
https://www.vox.com/2020/11/13/21563825/2020-elections-most-secure-dhs-cisa-krebs
20. "Unite our country by bringing it to new and record levels of success"
What, just like his first term? Here are the numbers:
6.4M jobs added in 36 months before COVID (6.3M have been added in the 24 months, since employment matched pre-pandemic numbers, under Biden)
Lost 192k manufacturing jobs (733k have been added under Biden)
+2.6% GDP (+2.9% under Biden)
+14.8% wages (+16.9% under Biden)
+/-0% inflation from the start of his term to the inception of COVID (inflation has decreased 67.0%, since employment matched pre-pandemic numbers, under Biden)
+430.5% budget-deficit increase (-45.7% under Biden)
+37.7% national debt (+23.1% under Biden)
+25.5% homicide rate (-17.4% under Biden)
+17.0% firearm deaths (-4.6% under Biden)
472 immigration actions over 4 years (535 such actions in 3 years under Biden)
1.4M southern-border arrests through the 24 months in 2019-2020 (5.0M+ such arrests in Biden’s first 26 months)
30,573 lies told (Biden isn’t even in the same galaxy here)
28% approval abroad (43% approval abroad for Biden)
2 times impeached (Biden hasn’t been impeached)
1,265+ supporters arrested for actions on 1/6/2021 (0 Biden supporters)
38 times he said COVID would disappear (0 times by Biden)
1 time he suggested injecting disinfectant to rid a person of COVID (once again, 0 times by Biden)
As displayed above, it seems all but certain Trump would shatter records with a second term, but definitely not the good kind.
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/ces0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES3000000001
https://statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-change-from-preceding-period-in-real-gdp-in-the-us
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003
https://bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm
https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-deficit/
https://investopedia.com/us-national-debt-by-year-7499291
https://www.axios.com/2023/12/28/us-murder-violent-crime-rates-drop
https://www.statista.com/statistics/258913/number-of-firearm-deaths-in-the-united-states/
https://healthjournalism.org/blog/2024/02/nearly-43000-people-died-from-gun-violence-in-2023-how-to-tell-the-story/
https://migrationpolicy.org/article/biden-three-immigration-record
https://cato.org/blog/new-data-show-migrants-were-more-likely-be-released-trump-biden
https://washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/01/24/trumps-false-or-misleading-claims-total-30573-over-four-years/
https://pewresearch.org/global/2024/06/11/globally-biden-receives-higher-ratings-than-trump/
https://pbs.org/newshour/politics/majority-of-house-members-vote-for-2nd-impeachment-of-trump
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/3-years-jan-6-numbers-1200-charged-460/story?id=106140326
https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2020/10/politics/covid-disappearing-trump-comment-tracker/
https://nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-suggests-injection-disinfectant-beat-coronavirus-clean-lungs-n1191216
#VoteBlue #VoteKamalaHarris2024
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