College Football Playoff Selections

The College Football Playoff Committee's job was easier than normal this year. The top three selections were easy ones to make: Undefeated SEC Champion Alabama, undefeated ACC Champion Clemson, and undefeated Notre Dame. I haven't heard anyone complain about Alabama or Clemson making the field of four. There have been occasional gripes made about Notre Dame making the field, but come on. As one of only four undefeated teams in all of college football, a team who defeated the likes of Michigan, Northwestern, and Syracuse, among others, deserves to be in the playoff. So the real debate centers around the #4 spot between Oklahoma, Georgia, Ohio State, and Central Florida.

It seems as though the college football world is divided on what the main criteria for being playoff-selected should be. Roughly 50% think it should be based on which four teams have most earned a spot and the other 50% think, regardless of whether or not they earned it, the four best teams should be selected. I have a few questions for those in the latter camp: 1) How can we label a team as one of the four best if they haven't earned said label?; 2) What's of greatest importance to you: schedule strength, margin of victory, conference championships, quality wins vs. quality losses, or the eye-test?; 3) If you were interviewing job applicants, would you be more apt to hiring based on their resumés or how they look when you first saw them? 

I personally think it's ridiculous to say a team belongs in the four-team playoff if they haven't earned their way there. Of what point is scheduling tough non-conference games if that's going to occur? Of what point are conference championship games? After Georgia's heartbreaking loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship game, many commentators said, "Well, Georgia came closer than anyone else this year to beating Alabama, so obviously, they're one of the four best and deserve to be in the playoff." Are they one of the four best, most talented teams in the country? I think so. But do they deserve a spot in the playoff? No. Among Oklahoma, Georgia, Ohio State, and Central Florida, only Georgia has more than one loss and only Georgia didn't win their conference championship game. I honestly feel bad for the Bulldogs' players. They should have won that game against the Crimson Tide. They were up 14 in the second half, had seeming control of the game, and for the most part, looked like the superior team. Head coach Kirby Smart's decision to fake a punt on a 4th-and-11 near midfield with 3 minutes left in a tie game may have been the dumbest coaching decision I've ever witnessed. Georgia should have won and should have been one of the four teams selected to the playoff, but guess what? They didn't. End of story. So the debate is between Oklahoma, Ohio State, and Central Florida.

All three teams won their respective conference championship games. Unlike Oklahoma and Ohio State, Central Florida is undefeated, which gives them a leg up on the other two, in my opinion. So the only way, in my mind, that the Sooners or Buckeyes can match and/or surpass the Knights is via their strength of schedule, margin of victory, and quality wins vs. quality losses. I honestly don't care about the so-called "eye-test." Philip Rivers has never passed the eye-test with regard to his throwing mechanics, yet the guy has Hall-of-Fame-type numbers, so so much for the eye-test. 

Without placing the numbers next to the teams which they represent just yet, allow me to mark the series of numbers as teams 1, 2, and 3, to provide readers an opportunity to look at them in an unbiased manner.

Team 1

Record of non-conference opponents: .472

Average margin of victory vs. non-conference opponents: +29.7

Record of conference opponents: .482

Average margin of victory vs. conference opponents: +21.8

One-possession games: 1

Team 2

Record of non-conference opponents: .389

Average margin of victory vs. non-conference opponents: +33.7

Record of conference opponents: .504

Average margin of victory vs. conference opponents: +13.0

One-possession games: 3

Team 3

Record of non-conference opponents: .486

Average margin of victory vs. non-conference opponents: +28.0

Record of conference opponents: .537

Average margin of victory vs. conference opponents: +13.8

One-possession games: 5

There isn't much difference between the three, is there? If we were to rank the teams in each of the five categories from 1 to 3 and tally those numbers, here's what the totals would be (the lower, the better)

Team 1: 9

Team 2: 11

Team 3: 10

So who does each team represent?

Team 1 is Central Florida

Team 2 is Ohio State

Team 3 is Oklahoma

So not only is Central Florida the only unbeaten team amongst these three, their strength of schedule and margin of victory numbers are slightly better than those of Oklahoma and Ohio State. Sorry Bulldogs and Buckeyes' fans, but if anyone has a reason to complain about not being a part of the four-team playoff this year, it's Central Florida. Unfortunately for them, winners of 25 straight, bias is often times stronger than performance and numbers.