As seems to so often be the case, the 24-hour news media seems to be obsessing over a couple of components of the new ABC/Washington Post poll, and I'm here to say, unless this becomes a trend, it's being blown out of proportion.
The two components I'm talking about are with regard to President Obama's approval rating and also whether or not voters want to see Democrats or Republicans in charge of Congress following the upcoming midterms.
According to this poll, President Obama is at a net -11 approval rating (41% approving, 52% disapproving). Also, according to this poll, Republicans are at a +14 (53-39) when asked if voters would rather see them or Democrats be in control of Congress after the midterm elections.
However, like I said, unless these numbers become a trend, I think they're getting blown out of proportion - due to other recent polls, as well as some other numbers within the same ABC/Washington Post poll.
According to Real Clear Politics, Democrats hold a 0.8% advantage over Republicans in a 2014 generic Congressional vote. In other words, that 53-39 number from the ABC/Washington Post poll may be quite misleading, and I'd be curious to know what the specifics were according to different locations. If certain areas where Senate toss-up races take place are in that 39% for the Democrats, then that 53% for Republicans will be fairly irrelevant come election day. Democrats would still control the Senate in that scenario.
Also, President Obama's approval rating, which is under 50% in every major poll, doesn't appear to be as low as the ABC/Washington Post poll contends. In four polls that were released more recently than the before-mentioned one, Obama's approval rating is at approximately 44.8%, while his disapproval is at around 51.3%, or a net of -6.5%. This includes the right-leaning Rasmussen Reports, which has the president at a net of -4 (47% approval, 51% disapproval). In other words, four polls which have been released more recently than the ABC/Washington Post one, have the president 3.5 points higher, which again leads me to believe that the ABC/Washington Post number is an outlier.
Lastly, numbers from the ABC/Washington Post poll which the 24-hour news networks haven't talked much about shed a different light on the public's perception of the two parties and what we can expect come November.
According to this same poll, the public trusts Democrats to handle this country's "main problems" by a 40 to 34 count. Voters also believe Democrats will do a better job of helping the middle class by a 20-point margin (52 to 32). They also trust Democrats more on women's issues than Republicans by 30 points (55 to 25).
As it was also reported in the poll:
"...Democrats have a significant advantage on eight issues, from health care to climate change to abortion and same-sex marriage. Democrats have a smaller advantage on immigration..."
Yes, according to the headlines and 24-hour-news-network talking points, it sounded like it was all doom and gloom for the Democratic Party based on this one poll. Yet, when looking at things more closely, it appears as if many in the news media was just trying to give journalism a bad name yet again.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/post-abc-news-poll-shows-democrats-at-risk-in-november-as-obamas-approval-rating-falls/2014/04/28/2a448b04-cf07-11e3-b812-0c92213941f4_story.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
The two components I'm talking about are with regard to President Obama's approval rating and also whether or not voters want to see Democrats or Republicans in charge of Congress following the upcoming midterms.
According to this poll, President Obama is at a net -11 approval rating (41% approving, 52% disapproving). Also, according to this poll, Republicans are at a +14 (53-39) when asked if voters would rather see them or Democrats be in control of Congress after the midterm elections.
However, like I said, unless these numbers become a trend, I think they're getting blown out of proportion - due to other recent polls, as well as some other numbers within the same ABC/Washington Post poll.
According to Real Clear Politics, Democrats hold a 0.8% advantage over Republicans in a 2014 generic Congressional vote. In other words, that 53-39 number from the ABC/Washington Post poll may be quite misleading, and I'd be curious to know what the specifics were according to different locations. If certain areas where Senate toss-up races take place are in that 39% for the Democrats, then that 53% for Republicans will be fairly irrelevant come election day. Democrats would still control the Senate in that scenario.
Also, President Obama's approval rating, which is under 50% in every major poll, doesn't appear to be as low as the ABC/Washington Post poll contends. In four polls that were released more recently than the before-mentioned one, Obama's approval rating is at approximately 44.8%, while his disapproval is at around 51.3%, or a net of -6.5%. This includes the right-leaning Rasmussen Reports, which has the president at a net of -4 (47% approval, 51% disapproval). In other words, four polls which have been released more recently than the ABC/Washington Post one, have the president 3.5 points higher, which again leads me to believe that the ABC/Washington Post number is an outlier.
Lastly, numbers from the ABC/Washington Post poll which the 24-hour news networks haven't talked much about shed a different light on the public's perception of the two parties and what we can expect come November.
According to this same poll, the public trusts Democrats to handle this country's "main problems" by a 40 to 34 count. Voters also believe Democrats will do a better job of helping the middle class by a 20-point margin (52 to 32). They also trust Democrats more on women's issues than Republicans by 30 points (55 to 25).
As it was also reported in the poll:
"...Democrats have a significant advantage on eight issues, from health care to climate change to abortion and same-sex marriage. Democrats have a smaller advantage on immigration..."
Yes, according to the headlines and 24-hour-news-network talking points, it sounded like it was all doom and gloom for the Democratic Party based on this one poll. Yet, when looking at things more closely, it appears as if many in the news media was just trying to give journalism a bad name yet again.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/post-abc-news-poll-shows-democrats-at-risk-in-november-as-obamas-approval-rating-falls/2014/04/28/2a448b04-cf07-11e3-b812-0c92213941f4_story.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Comments
Post a Comment