Having lived in Nebraska for 27 years, I know how much the state loves college football and their Cornhuskers. The team was great in the '90s under head coach Tom Osborne. They had their moments under Frank Solich. Bill Callahan was a bust. Then came Bo Pelini, who, in his 6th season, has been consistent, but hasn't shown much, if any progression from year one to year six and the state appears to be about split down the middle on whether or not he should stay in Lincoln for a seventh season.
On Facebook and other such sites, it has seemed as though Pelini defenders have been more outspoken than his detractors. Just recently, Zach Tegler of The Daily Nebraskan wrote such an article, defending the current Nebraska coach, starting his piece with this:
"Of the 2,053 men who have ever coached major college football, 107 – about 5 percent – had winning percentages of .706 or better through five seasons.
Of those 107 coaches, 43 are in the College Football Hall of Fame. Sixty-two worked before World War II. And eight – much less than 1 percent – won nine games in each of their first five seasons as a head coach.
Of those eight, only one inherited a team with a losing record.
His name is Bo Pelini."
That's all true. If we just look at some of Pelini's numbers at surface value, without digging much, they'll appear to be impressive to the casual fan.
In his going on six full seasons with Nebraska (there's still a bowl game to come), Bo Pelini has led his Cornhuskers to the following record: 34-14 (.708) in conference play, 56-24 (.700) overall, 35-9 (.795) at home, and 19-9 (.679) on the road. There we have it - Pelini has been great, right? As College GameDay's Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast, my friend..."
In Nebraska's 56 wins under Bo Pelini, their opponents are a combined 308-341 (.475). This excludes the three FCS opponents they've played and beaten during Pelini's tenure. The teams Nebraska has lost to have gone a combined 231-84 (.733). In other words, while Nebraska has been able to win 9-10 games a year under Pelini, their wins have tended to be against sub-par competition, and their losses have come against similar 8- to 10-win teams.
Following that trend, under Pelini, Nebraska is 0-3 in conference title games, 2-3 in bowl games, and 4-7 against major conference teams (outside their conference: 3-3 vs. Pac-12, 1-2 vs. ACC, and 0-2 vs. SEC). Against such opponents, Nebraska's 4 wins came against teams with a 29-23 (.558) record, and their 7 losses came against teams with a 68-25 (.731) record. So, they've been able to defeat the 7-6 and 8-5 teams out of conference and out of the top 25, yet have had trouble defeating such teams whom have been in the top 25 or close to it.
Lastly, in the six years Pelini has been in Lincoln, the Huskers have gone 23-21 (.523) against teams whom ended the season with a winning record. Some of these wins have come against: Western Michigan, Kansas, Washington (twice), Kansas State, Wyoming, Iowa, and Arkansas State. If we exclude those three wins against mid-major teams, the Huskers have gone 20-21 (.488) against teams with winning records.
So, there we have it. While Pelini's overall record may appear to be impressive to casual fans, when digging deeper, there's a lot more to the story than what's on the surface. Under Bo Pelini, the Nebraska Cornhuskers have been a very steady 8- to 10-win program, but whose wins have largely come against sub-par competition and whose losses have mainly come against top 30-35 opponents. Pelini is 2-6 in conference championship and bowl games, 4-7 against major conference non-conference teams, and if anything, it appears as if his team has regressed the past couple of seasons. It would be one thing for Zach Tegler and other Nebraska fans to say that Pelini deserves one more shot to show he can build the team into a championship-caliber squad. However, it's quite another to insinuate that he's one of the greatest coaches in the storied history of Nebraska, let alone in college football, and to claim such things by simply pointing at his rather misleading record. While numbers themselves may not lie, numbers can be used to mislead, and I feel that's what Mr. Tegler and other Pelini supporters have done in recent weeks in an attempt to extend the coach's tenure at Nebraska for at least one more year.
On Facebook and other such sites, it has seemed as though Pelini defenders have been more outspoken than his detractors. Just recently, Zach Tegler of The Daily Nebraskan wrote such an article, defending the current Nebraska coach, starting his piece with this:
"Of the 2,053 men who have ever coached major college football, 107 – about 5 percent – had winning percentages of .706 or better through five seasons.
Of those 107 coaches, 43 are in the College Football Hall of Fame. Sixty-two worked before World War II. And eight – much less than 1 percent – won nine games in each of their first five seasons as a head coach.
Of those eight, only one inherited a team with a losing record.
His name is Bo Pelini."
That's all true. If we just look at some of Pelini's numbers at surface value, without digging much, they'll appear to be impressive to the casual fan.
In his going on six full seasons with Nebraska (there's still a bowl game to come), Bo Pelini has led his Cornhuskers to the following record: 34-14 (.708) in conference play, 56-24 (.700) overall, 35-9 (.795) at home, and 19-9 (.679) on the road. There we have it - Pelini has been great, right? As College GameDay's Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast, my friend..."
In Nebraska's 56 wins under Bo Pelini, their opponents are a combined 308-341 (.475). This excludes the three FCS opponents they've played and beaten during Pelini's tenure. The teams Nebraska has lost to have gone a combined 231-84 (.733). In other words, while Nebraska has been able to win 9-10 games a year under Pelini, their wins have tended to be against sub-par competition, and their losses have come against similar 8- to 10-win teams.
Following that trend, under Pelini, Nebraska is 0-3 in conference title games, 2-3 in bowl games, and 4-7 against major conference teams (outside their conference: 3-3 vs. Pac-12, 1-2 vs. ACC, and 0-2 vs. SEC). Against such opponents, Nebraska's 4 wins came against teams with a 29-23 (.558) record, and their 7 losses came against teams with a 68-25 (.731) record. So, they've been able to defeat the 7-6 and 8-5 teams out of conference and out of the top 25, yet have had trouble defeating such teams whom have been in the top 25 or close to it.
Lastly, in the six years Pelini has been in Lincoln, the Huskers have gone 23-21 (.523) against teams whom ended the season with a winning record. Some of these wins have come against: Western Michigan, Kansas, Washington (twice), Kansas State, Wyoming, Iowa, and Arkansas State. If we exclude those three wins against mid-major teams, the Huskers have gone 20-21 (.488) against teams with winning records.
So, there we have it. While Pelini's overall record may appear to be impressive to casual fans, when digging deeper, there's a lot more to the story than what's on the surface. Under Bo Pelini, the Nebraska Cornhuskers have been a very steady 8- to 10-win program, but whose wins have largely come against sub-par competition and whose losses have mainly come against top 30-35 opponents. Pelini is 2-6 in conference championship and bowl games, 4-7 against major conference non-conference teams, and if anything, it appears as if his team has regressed the past couple of seasons. It would be one thing for Zach Tegler and other Nebraska fans to say that Pelini deserves one more shot to show he can build the team into a championship-caliber squad. However, it's quite another to insinuate that he's one of the greatest coaches in the storied history of Nebraska, let alone in college football, and to claim such things by simply pointing at his rather misleading record. While numbers themselves may not lie, numbers can be used to mislead, and I feel that's what Mr. Tegler and other Pelini supporters have done in recent weeks in an attempt to extend the coach's tenure at Nebraska for at least one more year.
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