I've always been curious on the actual impact and success of the strategy known as "icing the kicker" in football, if it has one at all.
Well, thanks to research, I have some answers. One Tobias Moskowitz put together some numbers on this very thing and released them in his book Scorecasting, where he compared field goal kickers' success rates in the final couple minutes of a game when they were iced and when they weren't. To me at least, the results aren't very surprising.
When the kick transpired between the 1:01 and 1:59 point in the 4th quarter of a game, iced kickers made 74.2% of their kicks, compared to 77.6% who weren't iced - a difference of 3.4%.
When the kick took place between the 1:00 and 0:31 mark, iced kickers converted on 74.3% of their attempts, while the kickers who weren't iced converted on 74.6% of them - a difference of 0.3%.
When the kick happened between the 0:30 and 0:16 point, iced kickers made 76.0% of their field goals, while kickers who weren't iced made 76.9% - a difference of 0.9%.
Lastly, when the kick happened between the 0:15 and 0:00 point, iced kickers actually performed better than kickers who weren't iced. Iced kickers made 77.5% of their field goal attempts, while 75.4% of kickers who weren't iced made their kicks - a difference of 2.1%.
In other words, on average, coaches give their team a 1.5% better chance of winning when icing a kicker between the 1:59 and 0:16 mark of the 4th quarter. However, they give the opposing team a 2.1% better chance of winning when icing the kicker between the 0:15 and 0:00 point. In other words, on average, icing the kicker doesn't give a team any better or worse chance of winning a football game. Perhaps coaches don't see the strategy as giving the kicker more time to think about the kick. It's more about them giving themselves more time to think about all the mistakes they made leading to that moment, where they could potentially lose the game on that field goal - that or perhaps they just don't have any other ideas.
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7318214/icing-kicker-work
Well, thanks to research, I have some answers. One Tobias Moskowitz put together some numbers on this very thing and released them in his book Scorecasting, where he compared field goal kickers' success rates in the final couple minutes of a game when they were iced and when they weren't. To me at least, the results aren't very surprising.
When the kick transpired between the 1:01 and 1:59 point in the 4th quarter of a game, iced kickers made 74.2% of their kicks, compared to 77.6% who weren't iced - a difference of 3.4%.
When the kick took place between the 1:00 and 0:31 mark, iced kickers converted on 74.3% of their attempts, while the kickers who weren't iced converted on 74.6% of them - a difference of 0.3%.
When the kick happened between the 0:30 and 0:16 point, iced kickers made 76.0% of their field goals, while kickers who weren't iced made 76.9% - a difference of 0.9%.
Lastly, when the kick happened between the 0:15 and 0:00 point, iced kickers actually performed better than kickers who weren't iced. Iced kickers made 77.5% of their field goal attempts, while 75.4% of kickers who weren't iced made their kicks - a difference of 2.1%.
In other words, on average, coaches give their team a 1.5% better chance of winning when icing a kicker between the 1:59 and 0:16 mark of the 4th quarter. However, they give the opposing team a 2.1% better chance of winning when icing the kicker between the 0:15 and 0:00 point. In other words, on average, icing the kicker doesn't give a team any better or worse chance of winning a football game. Perhaps coaches don't see the strategy as giving the kicker more time to think about the kick. It's more about them giving themselves more time to think about all the mistakes they made leading to that moment, where they could potentially lose the game on that field goal - that or perhaps they just don't have any other ideas.
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7318214/icing-kicker-work
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